Director of Planning and Studies

Transcription

1 ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012 Electricity & Water Demand Forecasts Mr Keith Miller Director of Planning and Studies Mohammed Al Hajjiri Head of Water Demand Forecasting Einar Al Hareeri Head of Electricity Demand Forecasting Abu Dhabi Water Wt and Electricity it Company MEED Arabian Power & Water Summit 6 th 7 th March 2012 Park Hyatt Hotel, Abu Dhabi, UAE Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company keithmiller@adwec.ae Tel: Fax:

2 2011 Electricity Demand Actuals Emirate of Abu Dhabi Electricity Peak Demand : MW +12% (7,683 MW) Electricity Energy Demand : (MWh) +10% Exports (FEWA / SEWA) Exports to Northern Emirates (FEWA / SEWA) : + >300 MW +19% (2,066 MW) Global l = Emirate of Abu Dhabi + Exports Global (Emirate of Abu Dhabi + FEWA / SEWA Exports) Electricity Peak Production : MW +14% (9,749 MW) Electricity Energy Demand : (MWh) +13% (56,602,646 MWh excluding GCC exports excluding GCC exports ) 2

3 Emirate of Abu Dhabi Electricity Peak Demand (MW) Average : 8% p.a Average : 7% p.a. Very little ADNOC (Oil GDP) related electricity demand before Provides a good historic proxy for Non-Oil GDP s electricity demand growth Average : 10% p.a. Electricity demand has grown > 10% in 4 out of 5 years. Post-2006 electricity demand has grown faster than pre Average : 11% p.a. Abu Dhabi s Peak Electricity c ty Demand Growth Rate has increased in recent years Abu Dhabi Peak : 7,683 MW 2011 Global Peak : 9,749 MW Global Peak Electricity Production to exceed 10,000 MW in

4 Electricity Demand Forecasting Structure 4 Key Components 1. Firm Contracted Exports (FEWA / SEWA) Firm Contracted Exports : FEWA / SEWA / FE (~2,066 MW 2011) Excludes non-firm interruptible exports : e.g. ADWEC s exports to Bahrain August 50 MW / September MW. 2. ADNOC ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) (~500+ MW 2011). Oil & Gas GDP 3. Industry Industry (~600 MW 2011) Emirates Steel ZonesCorp Khalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi (KIZAD). ChemaWEyaat (Abu Dhabi National Chemicals Company). ADBIC (Abu Dhabi Basic Industries Corporation). 4. Residential / Commercial (~5,600 MW 2011) Government Residential (e.g. Al Raha Beach / Al Reem Island). Commercial Tourism (e.g. Yas Island / Saadiyat Island / Abu Dhabi Airport) Non-Oil & Gas GDP 4

5 Firm Contacted Exports Forecast (FEWA / SEWA) March 2011 H.H. President ordered new investments in the Northern Emirates electricity and water sector. ADWEA provided ADWEC with FEWA / SEWA Export Forecasts to use for planning purposes ADWEC Peak Exports = 2,066 MW Similar in size to : FEWA capacity SEWA capacity FEWA + SEWA Exports ~ 1,300 MW ~ 2,400 MW ~ 3,700 MW ADWEC s Peak Exports to Northern Emirates > +80% 2013 Peak Exports > 3,800+ MW and will exceed : a) Sum of current FEWA + SEWA capacity. b) Abu Dhabi s 2001 peak demand (3,723 MW). c) Bahrain s 2011 Peak Demand (2,812 MW). d) 3+ times larger than maximum GCCIA interconnection (1,200 MW). ADWEC largest exporter of Electricity within GCC. 5

6 ADNOC Forecast (Oil & Gas GDP) Emirate of Abu Dhabi's 2010 GDP (AED million current prices) Non-Oil GDP 50.3% Oil GDP 49.7% 308, ,294 Source : Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD) 2011 Statistical Yearbook, page 19, Table Oil GDP Non-Oil GDP ADNOC accounted for just 6% of ADWEC s 2011 electricity demand peak. ADNOC (Oil & Gas GDP) has historically generated most of its own electricity (pre-2007). In future ADWEC will supply most of ADNOC s electricity demand. Each year ADNOC provides ADWEC with an Electricity Demand forecast.

7 20,000 Common Forecasting Assumptions (Exports p + ADNOC) ) 15, ,660 13,989 14,250 14,523 14,831 15,176 12,265 12,803 Exports Pe eak MW 10,000 8,563 9,749 10,084 ADNOC 5,000 6,629 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 0 Notes: Exports includes F1 & F2 IWPPs' Auxiliaries & Pumping & Losses. ADNOC includes losses Non-ADNOC includes Emirate of Abu Dhabi's Auxiliaries, Losses, End-User Demands (excluding ADNOC) Non-ADNOC Demand : 9,749 MW 2015 : 13,660 MW +40% from higher Exports / ADNOC demands alone (8.8% p.a.) 7

8 How to Forecast Non-Oil GDP s Electricity Demand? Exports electricity forecast Known. ADNOC electricity demand forecast Known. 4 Non-Oil GDP s electricity demand forecasts developed by ADWEC. 2 Approaches : (1) Bottom-Up Projects Based approach (i) Projects Based Forecast (ADWEC s Base Forecast) (ii) Low Forecast (subset of Projects Based Forecast) (2) Historical Trends approach (iii) : ~ 7% p.a. (iv) : ~ 10% p.a.

9 ADWEC Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts 25,000 24,781 Northern Emirates Exports / Losses / Pumping / Auxiliaries ADNOC 22,920 23,120 Pe eak MW 20,000 15,000 10,000 8,563 Non-ADNOC Demands Projects Based Forecast Non-ADNOC 10% p.a. + Common Export / ADNOC Assumptions Non-ADNOC 7% p.a. + Common Exports / ADNOC Assumptions Common Assumptions Non-ADNOC Demands Low Forecast 13,751 13,226 13,290 12,265 12,9 10,7 9,749 10,463 10,579 10,084 10, ,942 16,244 15,145 15,858 14,673 14,395 15,392 13,660 14,164 12,803 18,307 17,384 16,836 16,026 13,989 21,233 19,707 20,145 19,029 18,808 17,792 17,335 16,670 14,523 14,250 Exports ADNOC 21,440 19,1 18,043 14,831 21, ,798 15,176 5, Non-ADNOC Demand 0 6,629 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7, Projects Based Forecast (base) : Electricity Peak Demands (MW) : Abu Dhabi : 11.3% p.a. Abu Dhabi : 11.6% p.a. Global : 13.6% p.a. Global : 13.9% p.a. 9

10 ADWEC Electricity Peak Demand Forecasts (MW) Global Forecast Range 2011 : 9,749 MW Low Base High Low Forecast Projects Based 10% p.a. Non-ADNOC ,385 10,463 10, ,9 13,226 13, ,164 14,673 15, ,392 16,244 16, ,026 17,384 18, , ,029 19, ,335 20,145 21, ,043 21,440 22, ,798 23,120 24,781 Projects Based Forecast : Abu Dhabi : 11.3% p.a. Global : 13.6% p.a Electricity Peak Demands (MW) : Abu Dhabi : 11.6% p.a. Global : 13.9% p.a : 7% - 8% p.a. (similar to long term growth rate of 8% p.a.). 10

11 Cumulative Incremental Electricity Peak Demands Post-2011 (Projects Based Forecast) 7,000 6,000 5, : Abu Dhabi : 11.3% p.a. Global : 13.6% p.a. 2/3 rds Exports / ADNOC 8.8%p.a. Exports 4,000 MW 3,000 ADNOC 2,000 Exports Industry 1,000 ADNOC Industry Residential / Commercial 0 Residential / Commercial Auxiliaries

12 ADWEC Projects Based Forecast Peak Electricity Demand (MW) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15, : Abu Dhabi : 94%pa 9.4% p.a. Global : 10.1% p.a. 16,244 14,673 13,226 11,795 Global Demand (diversified) Emirate of Abu Dhabi (diversified) 21,440 20,145 25,432 24,077 23,120 Exports 19,029 18,243 17,384 17,293 15,923 14,7 14,074 12,6 19,589 Industry 26,299 20,450 27,624 21,765 29,537 28,476 23,665 22,611 Auxiliaries 30,462 24,583 31,604 25,718 32,695 26,800 33,730 27,828 10,0008,563 6,885 9,749 7,683 10,463 8,063 9,084 10,360 ADNOC 5,000 Residential / Commercial

13 ADWEC Water Peak Demand Forecast by Region (MIGD) 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Global Demand = Emirate of Abu Dhabi System + Northern Emirates Supply 1,243 1,217 1,196 1,177 1,156 1,134 1,107 1,075 1,141 1, , , ,075 1, , , ,267 1,165 1,292 1,190 1,318 1,215 1,340 1,237 1,362 1, Note: The Global System peak differes from the sum of the individual area peaks due to the difference in demand patterns (the peak occures in different months). Auxilliaries Northern Emirates Supply Western Region Al Ain Abu Dhabi Global Demand Emirate of Abu Dhabi System (excluding Auxiliaries) : 8% - 9% p.a : 3% p.a : 5% - 6% p.a. 13

14 ADWEC Water Peak Demand Forecasts by Sector (MIGD) , , ,107 1,020 1,134 1,043 1,156 1,066 1,177 1,086 1,196 1,106 1,217 1,126 1,243 1,152 1,267 1,176 1,292 1,202 1,318 1,227 1,340 1,249 1,362 1, Total Northern Emirates Supply (Including Auxiliaries & Losses ) Industrial (including ADNOC) Agricultural Abu Dhabi Emirate Auxiliaries Shabiat / Town houses Villas Domestic Residential / Commercial Mega Projects Bulk & Other Emirate of Abu Dhabi (including Auxiliaries) Global Peak Demand : 8% - 9% p.a : 3% p.a : 5% - 6% p.a. 14

15 Summary 2011 Electricity Peak Demand (MW) : Abu Dhabi : 11.6% p.a. Global : 13.9% p.a.` ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012 Peak Demand Forecast Summary per annum per annum per annum Electricity Demand Forecast Projects Based Forecast Emirate of Abu Dhabi 11.3% 8.0% 9.4% Global (including exports) 13.6% 7.3% 10.1% per annum per annum per annum Water Demand Forecast Most-Likely Forecast Emirate of Abu Dhabi 8.0% 3.2% 5.3% Global (including exports) 9.1% 3.0% 5.7% 15

16 Thank You 16