Small Wind All Things Considered DWEA 2013

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2 Small Wind All Things Considered DWEA 2013 Mike Bergey Bergey Windpower June 11, 2013

3 2012 U.S. Distributed Wind Up 52% Source: DOE/PNL 2012 DW Report

4 New Small Wind ( 100 kw) Down 53% Source: DOE/PNL 2012 DW Report

5 2012 s Big Drop in U.S. SWT Sales Wind down of ARRA & 1603 market bump Reduced state programs (Ohio, California, Vermont, Nevada, New Jersey) Major manufacturer exits (ReDriven, Raum, Enertech Windspire & Southwest Windpower) Solar prices / Chinese module dumping No money down solar leasing programs Permitting delays and costs Lingering effects of recession Lower public concern about energy & climate

6 Dramatic Drop in PV Prices Volume Production Silicon Shortage $35B for Chinese Factories

7 PV Pricing Not Sustainable

8 What about Manufacturing? Less than 10% of the solar modules installed in America in 2012 were built in America More than 90% of the small wind turbines installed in America in 2012 were built in America

9 Export Markets Up 56% of new U.S. turbines exported, up from 41% in 2011 Exports by kw of small wind turbines exceed domestic sales for 2 nd year European Feed- In-Tariff markets (UK primarily)

10 2013 World SWT Market Outlook U.K is the hot market, but permitting getting more difficult Other European countries with FIT s provide opportunity, particularly for 50 kw+ Japan - maybe China market is a disaster U.S. market should grow

11 Expect Growth in U.S. Market DWEA s state policy work showing results (NY, CO) Small wind leasing & PPA s could be gamechanging Increased federal support (DOE, maybe USDA and federal markets) More emphasis on product quality, more accurate performance projections, and customer satisfaction Some manufacturer exits are good for the market which remains substantial

12 DW s 2030 Domestic Market Potential Market 2013 Size, Data 2030 Size, Percent 2030 Potential Average Potential Segment Units Source Units Suitable Installed Units Size (kw) (MW) Businesses 8,900,000 Census, ,300,000 15% 2,145, ,750 Rural Residential 30,600,000 HUD, ,100,000 50% 24,550, ,500 Farm 2,200,000 USDA, ,200,000 60% 1,320, ,000 Public Buildings 1,200,000 DWEA Estimate 1,350,000 25% 337, ,375 Schools 140,000 NCES, ,000 40% 66, ,500 Total Potential (MW): 1,295,125 Distributed Wind: ~ 1,300 GW Offshore Wind: ~ 1,100 GW (<30m depth); ~ 600 GW (30-60m depth); ~ 2,500 GW (>60m depth); Total = ~ 4,200 GW Onshore Large Wind: ~ 8,000 GW Current (2013) U.S. Generating Capacity: ~ 1,100 GW (EIA)

13 Certification is Working US small wind industry developed the standard, AWEA , adopted in US, UK, and Japan SWCC and Intertek certifying Required for rebates in 4 states; 8 more in process ITAC (CESA): state-level gatekeepers DWEA promoting certification with IRS (ITC), USDA, federal agencies and US- GBC (LEED)

14 Emerging Military and Foreign Assistance Markets

15 Wind/Solar/Diesel Hybrids for Forward Operating Bases (FOB s) and Remote Sites U.S. has hundreds of small bases and thousands of remote sites around the world with difficult fuel logistics Delivered fuel costs can be $15 - $400/gal Hybrid payback periods can be months, not years

16 Village Power, N.W. Pakistan

17 Small Wind is a Challenging Industry, but the Future Prospects are Good

18 Request: Add your voice in USDA REAP rules revision DWEA booth TODAY!

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20 Community Wind All Things Considered June 11 th, 2013

21 Community Wind: Public Disclaimer For the purposes of this presentation, Community Wind will include all distributed wind installations utilizing newly manufactured wind turbines greater than 100kW in rated capacity. This definition may not define community wind perfectly for everyone and I am simply hoping that I will not be sent to the wind power dungeon for another day long meeting to define community wind.

22 Community Wind:

23 Community Wind: Don t put these projects in a box One Size Does Not Fit All Behind the meter, or to the grid but designed to maximize local economic benefits. Community Owned, Community Developed Tax Payer Owned (Public Power, Municipally Owned Utilities)

24 576 MW 89 Projects 19 States with New CW Projects Leading States: CA, IA, MN, AK, MA Community Wind 2012:

25 Community Wind 2012: Wayne Industrial Sustainability Park (WISP) 850kW in Ontario, NY Self Financed 1603 Grant First project greater than 100kW to use NYSERDA rebates. Utilizes Remote Net Metering Fixes Power Costs at a Manufacturing facility with over 140 employees

26 Community Wind 2012: Kingston Independence Wind 2MW Owned by the Kingston Wind Independence Hyundai 2MW Turbine Power consumed by municipal loads under virtual net metering and long term PPA Power to more than 1000 Households

27 Community Wind 2012: Georgia Mountain Wind 10MW Financed and Owned by two lifelong Vermont Residents and RE advocates and entrepreneurs that employ more than 100 Vermonters. 4 GoldWind 2.5MW Turbines Power Sold to Burlington Electric Stable Pricing for 4200 average Vermont Households

28 Community Wind 2012: Berkshire Wind Project 15MW Financed and Owned Mass Municipal Wholesale Electric Cooperative a Public Power Entitiy that delivers power to 15 MOU s 10 GE 12.5 MW Turbines Community Acceptance gained after successful neighboring Jiminy Peak Wind Project

29 Community Wind 2012: Patton Wind Farm 30MW Developed by Own Energy in conjunction with local entrepreneur Marty Yahner 15 Gamesa 2 MW Turbines Started by Saint Francis University's Renewable Energy Center Owned by Ever Power Global

30 Community Wind 2012: Large DW and CW Successes! DWEA Lead the effort to extend the Investment Tax Credit for all wind projects (AWEA Supported) ACENY along with DWEA lead large DW efforts in 2012 including remote net metering, expanded grants, access to the main RPS tier Developed pre-certification criteria for mid-sized wind turbines for use in state incentive programs and by the Clean Energy States Alliance s ITAC qualified turbine list

31 Establish long term policy certainty for Large DW/CW ITC Extension Re-Establish usefulness of REAP program Involvement in communication with field staff and regulation of USFWS guidelines New Policies REET Involvement MLP Community Wind 2013: Long Term Plan Federal Policy

32 Community Wind 2013: Long Term Plan State Policy Continue to establish State-level distributed energy policies that are broadly inclusive of all Renewable Technologies (Not solar only) Target involvement in State s with major RE policy changes on the Horizon

33 Community Wind 2013: Long Term Plan Market Establish efficient access to capital in order to compete with other technologies Continue to vie for a role in Village power, Wind Diesel Markets

34 Community Wind: Level the Playing Field Federal Policy State Policy Utility Prices and Policies Solar Policies Energy Efficiency Efficient Access to Capital Get Involved!!!!

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