ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN PAKISTAN

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN PAKISTAN Summary Slides March 2016 d Public Disclosure Authorized

2 This slide deck was prepared by Enclude in collaboration with Foresight Research, under contract to The World Bank. It is one of several inputs into the activity Strategy to Scale-Up Renewable Energy in Pakistan [P146251], which was implemented over the period January 2015 to May The activity was funded and supported by the Asia Sustainable and Alternative Energy Program (ASTAE), a multi-donor trust fund administered by The World Bank, and was led by Oliver Knight (Senior Energy Specialist) and Anjum Ahmad (Senior Energy Specialist). The slide deck provides a summary of the methodology, results and conclusions from a study to assess electricity access in Pakistan, focusing on the surveys that were undertaken. It accompanies a separate report that describes the methodology and approach. The survey data can be downloaded from The World Bank s Energy & Extractives Open Data Platform. Copyright 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK Washington DC Telephone: Internet: This work is a product of the consultants listed, and not of World Bank staff. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and accept no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for non-commercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: ; pubrights@worldbank.org. Furthermore, the ASTAE Program Manager would appreciate receiving a copy of the publication that uses this publication for its source sent in care of the address above, or to esmap@worldbank.org.

3 PEOPLE.PRINCIPLES.PROSPERITY ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN PAKISTAN March

4 INTRODUCTION Enclude in collaboration with Foresight Research carried out an approximately 8,500 strong household survey to measure the energy access rates, consumption patterns and economic & psychographic drivers to energy relevant behaviours. As highlighted in the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), the energy sector is one of three priorities for the WB s engagement in Pakistan and this activity is a World Bank s (WB) initiative to better understand the opportunities, challenges and policy barriers relating to the scale-up of renewable energy in Pakistan and has been funded by the Asia Sustainable & Alternative Energy Program (ASTAE), a multi-donor trust fund administered by the WB. The objective of the research was to improve our understanding of the energy poverty in Pakistan & gain actionable insights into needs & behavioral drivers for energy consumption. The specific objectives of the research: To carry out a country-wide survey on electricity access primarily utilizing remote sampling techniques to deliver a snapshot of electricity access in Pakistan that covers the level of electricity access by household (availability and use), awareness of available solutions, and willingness to pay, with sufficient granularity to make statistically relevant comparisons BACKGROUND OF THE RESEARCH To inform ongoing policy discussions, programs, and investments aimed at increasing access to electricity in Pakistan, by providing reliable baseline data to public and private sector stakeholders; Survey Delivery Medium Although the initial intention was to use SMS (short messaging service) and telephonic interviews as the primary survey delivery vehicles after deliberation that face to face Computer Aided Personal Interviewing (CAPI) surveys be used as a primary delivery medium to improve the quality and relevance of the outputs from this activity.

5 METHODOLOGY

6 METHODOLOGY Approach In order to collect the needed information for the access to electricity analysis, awareness of alternative solutions and willingness to pay, data was collected amongst 8,461 households and used CAPI/ Face-to- Face interviews. METHODOLOGY

7 WHAT DOES THE SURVEY COVER? Multi-tier Framework for Energy Access WB, UN SE4ALL Profiling Energy Access Alternate Solutions METHODOLOGY Basic Demographics Need based profiling Grid Access Duration Reliability Legality Affordability Safety Awareness Usage Experience Relevance Willingness to Pay (WTP) The following three thematic areas were covered by the survey(s). 1. Access to electricity: Get an understanding of the type of electricity sources currently used (grid and offgrid), for which activities (studying, cooking etc), hours of usage per day, the satisfaction levels (with regards to usage, reliability, availability) and the expenditures (upfront and recurrent) and costs of different electricity solutions. 2. Awareness on alternative solutions: determine to what extent households are aware of alternative energy solutions (solar, off-grid solutions) available in the market. 3. Willingness to pay (WTP): getting an understanding of the amounts households would be willing to pay for an alternative energy solutions and cross checking this with their current spending, ability to pay and satisfaction levels.

8 RESEARCH SETUP CAPI Survey: Using mobile phone surveying technology & laptops: Data collected was immediately uploaded to the database, ready for analysis. Only questions relevant to respondent were shown Simplified and speedy conducting of the survey Possibility to monitor collected data through database System could be used offline too GPS data was collected (where android smartphones were employed) A survey pilot was conducted and tested by Foresight Research before fielding it. METHODOLOGY Dedicated Trainings: In-depth trainings on the survey, CAPI methodology, quality assurance were conducted by Foresight Research under the supervision and support of Enclude s technical team. Apart from the internal trainings conducted for Foresight Interviewers, 4 regional trainings were conducted at the following locations: Multan (Punjab) Peshawar (KPK) Karachi (Sindh) Quetta (Baluchistan) Data Quality & Control: CAPI scripting & built-in software checks a separate and independent team of quality assurance UTrack, a location tracking system to ensure the authenticity of its interviews (where used). Accompanied interviewing, spot checking and back checking also employed.

9 UNDERSTANDING THE SAMPLING For this survey, after consultation with the WB team, it was decided to employ alternate channels for survey delivery and respondent recruitment to: 1. Cost effectively boost sample size 2. Reach out to rural areas 3. Gain insights into leveraging alternate channels for future WBG research projects METHODOLOGY For this the household panel maintained by Foresight Research was supplemented by approximately 80 rural clusters through the Digital Hubs being operated by Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund s (PPAF). Enclude and Foresight evaluated and trained the staff from the Digital Hubs (DH) to effectively deliver on this project and in accordance with strict quality control instituted for this activity. Where possible each town was divided into 5 sectors (Center, North, East, West and South) of approximately equivalent area. In each sector, certain number of neighborhoods was determined & was treated as a statistical unit in which the respondents were contacted. This approach was loosely followed for small rural communities due to evident constraints. Within the neighborhood, interviewers were instructed to contact the households while walking from the pre-specified starting point & following the right hand rule. The accompanying figure illustrates this approach.

10 DEFINING URBAN, PERI-URBAN & RURAL For the purpose of sampling and analysis, the following 3 segments were used based on their geographical location and sizing: Urban Areas: These consist of top metro towns typically with populations greater than 100,000 Peri-Urban Areas: These consist of settlements and towns peripheral to urban areas and/or large towns with populations greater than 10,000 but less that 100,000 Rural Areas: These will consist of small villages typically with populations less than 10,000 METHODOLOGY The Urban household population is summarized in the following table: Strata Strata Description (Population of Cities) Number of Cities in Universe Total Population Strata Share in Total Urban Population (%) I More than 4 million 2 24,379,533 33% II Between 0.5 to 4 million 14 19,692,725 27% III Between 0.1 to.5 million 71 14,278,016 20% IV Less than.1 million ,731,057 20% ,081, % Foresight Estimates based on Economic Survey Pakistan 2014, Census Reports 1998 & 1981, PDS

11 HOUSEHOLD PANEL: FORESIGHT Understanding the Household Panel: Foresight Research maintains Pakistan s largest household panel consisting of over 7,500 households. Given the project s requirement to selectively recruit households to better understand the energy poor and also have a significant representation of the affluent households required a hybrid recruitment through an existing household panel and supplementing it with recruitment in geographical locations that were likely to be suffering from unmet energy demands. METHODOLOGY The following tables detail the universe of the household panel from which the panel was drawn for this project. Provincial Region Peri Urban Rural Urban Grand Total BALUCHISTAN NWFP ,061 PUNJAB 1, ,368 4,243 SIND ,596 Grand Total 2,104 1,645 3,751 7,500 Region SEC A SEC B SEC C SEC D SEC E Total BALUCHISTAN NWFP ,061 PUNJAB 1,126 1,093 1, ,243 SIND ,596 Grand Total 1,993 1,898 1,989 1, ,500

12 PPAF DIGITAL HUBS Understanding the Digital Hubs: Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) set up 80 digital hubs under their LEED programme in rural communities of Pakistan to pilot an innovative model of social enterprises that seeks to boost economic activity through the provision on ICT services to rural communities. Enclude in partnership with PPAF was able to train educated DH staff members to effectively deliver on this project. A list of the 80 locations is provided as an annexures. METHODOLOGY The following table summarizes the training themes and outcomes from our capacity building of the DH staff. Digital Hubs Engaged Geographical Distribution of DH Details All 80 existing digital hubs are expected to take part. Fielding of the survey is planned as a compensated activity. Punjab 21 Baluchistan 10 KPK 20 Sindh 29 Sample Total targeted sample: 8,000 Sample per DH: Between 100 to 125 Actual Sample: 5,581 Thematic Area Basic Research Concepts Training Outcomes The trainees imparted with research concepts enabling them in understanding and fielding basic surveys with the objective of ensuring a good quality research output Survey Techniques & Best Practices The trainees able to understand survey flows, coding, special instructions and appreciate various dimensions of a well conducted survey ICT & primary research Comfort with delivering surveys (and uploading results) through specific digital mediums and through the resources available at the Digital Hubs. Fielding a Survey An Exercise The trainees were familiarized with various aspects of interviewing and engaging interviewees allowing them to effectively field surveys. Quality Assurance Familiarized with various aspects that constitute a high quality research and what ensures data integrity. Able to digitally transmit data to the client as well.

13 80 Rural Clusters PPAF DIGITAL HUBS Sr. Name of UC(s) District Province Sr. Name of UC(s) District Province 1 Noor Pur Machiwala Rajanpur Punjab 41 Talhata Mansehra KPK 2 Gulwala Muzaffargarh Punjab 42 Nangarparkar Tharparker Sindh 3 Sharif Chajra Muzaffargarh Punjab 43 Bhetoor Ghotki Sindh 4 Haji Pur Rajanpur Punjab 44 Ali Bagh Ghotki Sindh 5 Umer Kot Rajanpur Punjab 45 Ibrahim hyderi Karachi Sindh 6 Tatar Wala Rajanpur Punjab 46 Mahar Thatta Sindh 7 Aali Wala D.G Khan Punjab 47 Sukhupur Thatta Sindh 8 Paighan D.G Khan Punjab 48 Karam Pur Thatta Sindh 9 Vahova D.G Khan Punjab 49 Kothi Thatta Sindh 10 Miani Bhawalpur Punjab 50 Gharo Thatta Sindh 11 Jalalabad Bhawalpur Punjab 51 Dhabeji Thatta Sindh 12 Mari Sheik shajra Bhawalpur Punjab 52 Chuhar Jamali Thatta Sindh 13 Toba Qalandar Shah Bahawalnagar Punjab 53 Ladiyoon Thatta Sindh 14 Pir Sikander Bahawalnagar Punjab 54 Googani Thatta Sindh 15 Noor Sir Bahawalnagar Punjab 55 Hoat wassan Sanghar & Thatta Sindh 16 Aulakh Thal Kalan Layyah Punjab 56 Shahmardanabad Sanghar & Thatta Sindh 17 Jaman Shah Layyah Punjab 57 kumbdarhon Sanghar & Thatta Sindh 18 Ladhana Layyah Punjab 58 Maldasi Sanghar & Thatta Sindh 19 Ghazanfar Garh Muzaffargarh Punjab 59 KAR Shah Sanghar & Thatta Sindh 20 Jhalarian Muzaffargarh Punjab 60 Bhugra Memon Badin Sindh 21 TBC Muzaffargarh Punjab 61 Abdullah Shah Badin Sindh 22 Khander khan Khel Bannu KPK 62 Ahmed Rajo Badin Sindh 23 Marmandi Azim Lukimarwat KPK 63 Kadhan Badin Sindh 24 Komila Kohistan KPK 64 Dai Jarkas Badin Sindh 25 Kuza Bandi Swat KPK 65 Khairpur Gambo Badin Sindh 26 Paimal Batagram KPK 66 Ahori Badin Sindh 27 Biari Batagram KPK 67 Islamkot Tharparker Sindh 28 Alpuri Shangla KPK 68 Pellu Tharparker Sindh 29 Lilownai Shangla KPK 69 Manjthi Tharparker Sindh 30 Kuz Kana Shangla KPK 70 Dhabhro Tharparker Sindh 31 Ganori Dir Upper KPK 71 Kawas Ziarat Balochistan 32 Kuz Abakhel Swat KPK 72 Ziarat Ziarat Balochistan 33 Hazara Swat KPK 73 Kach Ziarat Balochistan 34 Sazine Kohistan KPK 74 Zindra Ziarat Balochistan 35 Jijal Kohistan KPK 75 Shah Noorani Khuzdar Balochistan 36 Shahpur Shangla KPK 76 Rodh Malazai Pishin Balochistan 37 Kala Kalay Swat KPK 77 Dilsora Pishin Balochistan 38 Sararogha (SWA) South Wazirstan Agency KPK 78 Sarawan Kharan Balochistan 39 Sararogha South Wazirstan Agency KPK 79 Joda-e-Kalat Kharan Balochistan 40 Kernol Mansehra KPK 80 Tohmulk Kharan Balochistan DIGITAL HUBS: THE 80 CLUSTERS

14 SAMPLE & DELIVERY 4 Provinces 8.6k Households CAPI Interviews >70 Union Councils >80 locations METHODOLOGY Recruited Household Panel (N=2,881) Informal Rural Clusters - PPAF (N=5,580) Rural, Urban, Peri-urban ~ 80 Rural Clusters Formal trained interviewers Specially trained local resources Largely female respondents Dedicated technical support

15 SAMPLE & DELIVERY KPK 1,773 Urban/ Peri-Urban 446 Rural 1,327 METHODOLOGY Baluchistan 1,528 Urban/ Peri-Urban 195 Rural 1,333 Punjab 3,033 Urban/ Peri-Urban 909 Rural 2,124 Sindh 2,127 Urban/ Peri-Urban 341 Rural 1,786

16 SAMPLE & DELIVERY METHODOLOGY

17 DATA FINDINGS

18 HOUSEHOLD PROFILE House Type Urban & Peri-Urban Single Storey 61% Two Storey % Rural 57% Hut 38% Single Storey HOUSEHOLD PROFILE House Size Less than 6 50% More than 9 16% 50% Less than 6 21% More than 9 # of Rooms Less than 2 22% More than 4 50% 60% Less than 2 17% More than 4

19 HOUSEHOLD PROFILE SEC Urban & Peri-Urban SEC D & E 45% Avg. Income 32k Rural 84% SEC D & E 19k Avg. Income HOUSEHOLD PROFILE Occupation Agri & Related 8% Salaried Employee 32% 78% Agri & Related 76% Skilled/ Unskilled Extended Family Extended Family 41% 37% Extended Family

20 ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY Between 81% to 86% 97% Access to Grid Electricity Skewed across provinces Lower grid access in rural areas Grid electricity primary source Followed by local mini-grid, batteries & solar energy ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY >30 Years using Primary Source Urban areas <16 Only 6% with less than 10 yrs 3.5 km From the grid (HH with no access) 9km in Rural areas Grid access too costly in no access areas

21 Access to national grid Between 81% to 86% Access to Grid Electricity Higher representation of Rural Areas KPK GRID ACCESS * Correcting for sampling bias Punjab Baluchistan Sindh Map of access to the national grid per province and region

22 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS Electric heater Air conditioner Electric toaster Microwave oven Electric cooking system Electric food processor Printer Computer Color TV Black and white TV Phone charger Lighting, cooling major household needs High penetration of communication items ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS Radio Fan Light bulb - energy saver Tube light Non energy saver light bulb Lighting Items & Basic Space Cooling 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Regularly used Owned

23 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS

24 CONSTRAINTS & UNMET NEEDS Poor Satisfaction Scores Power Outages Unpredictable interruptions main constraint of the primary source of electricity Low voltage or fluctuations (47%) and unpredictable interruptions (44%) driving low statisfaction Only 11% satisfied Mainly the grid connected hh dissatisfied & mainly in the rural areas High duration but predictable Rural areas more affected Something on load shedding Extremely dissatisfied Slightly dissatisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Very satisfied CONSTRAINTS & UNMET NEEDS Inefficient Lighting Sources Continued reliance on incandescent bulbs. Poor penetration of LED Extremely satisfied Urban Peri Urban Rural 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

25 Load shedding LOAD SHEDDING KPK: 83% More than 3 times On average loadshedding takes place 3-6 times a day Rural and peri-urban areas similarly affected Baluchitstan: 82% Less than 6 times Punjab: 91% More than 3 times Punjab & KPK more adversely affected Sindh: 73% Less than 6 times Map of amount of load shedding per day

26 Electricity usage and availability 2.06 Hours of electricity available between 6-10pm Gap between availability (2.06 hours) and usage (3.17 hours) of electricity 3.17 Hours of nonnatural light used 4.00 ELECTRICITY USE AND AVAILABILITY Baluchistan KPK Punjab Sindh

27 EXPLORING ALTERNATIVES 82% Need improved availability 76% Interested in Alternative Security (outside light) Improvement in health Safety (fire hazard) Reduce space usage More reliable and better quality indoor light Easy to transport in case of moving Suitable for multiple uses ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES Long product life Rural High interest for alternatives Cost savings Affordability Availability (time) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Improved availability and affordability of electricity source driving high interest in alternative energy solutions (76%)

28 EXPLORING INTEREST IN ALTERNATIVES Urban Peri Urban Rural 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% no yes ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES

29 Willingness versus Ability to Pay High interest in alternative energy solutions (76%) being held back by low WTP particularly in the rural areas and in Baluchistan province 2,044 Monthly energy Bill in PKR <10% Energy bill of monthly income 523 Monthly WTP Price Point <3% WTP of monthly income Urban Highest WTP WILLINGNESS TO PAY PKR 25,000 PKR 35,000 PKR 20,000 PKR 30,000 PKR 25,000 PKR 15,000 PKR 20,000 PKR 10,000 PKR 15,000 PKR 10,000 PKR 5,000 PKR 5,000 PKR 0 Baluchistan KPK Punjab Sindh PKR 0 Rural Urban Income WTP Current Energy bill Income WTP Energy bill

30 Solar Awareness and usage 63% Know where to buy it High awareness of what solar is and where to buy solar products Awareness low in urban areas (interestingly) High levels of trust in rural areas. Urban areas trust levels low (38%) SOLAR ENERGY 46% Know someone using solar 85% Trust Solar Power 16% Own a solar product Map of hh owning a solar product (lantern or SHS)

31 DEMAND DRIVERS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Correlation between satisfaction levels and interest in alternatives No correlation between amount of load shedding and satisfaction levels or interest in alternatives DEMAND DRIVERS 0% Extremely satisfied Very satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied yes, interested in alternatives Slightly dissatisfied no, not interested Extremely dissatisfied No correlation between grid access and satisfaction levels Grid connectivity (or the lack of it) does not seem to have much influence on the satisfaction levels of households on their electricity source Demand drivers particularly increased availability / longer hours of electricity source, even for those currently having high availability

32 CONCLUSIONS

33 KEY CONCLUSIONS ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY >83% grid High rural representation 53% Lighting / cooling main household needs 82% Availability (hours) main demand driver AWARENESS HIGH awareness & interest in alternatives (incl. solar) 16% solar penetration rate 11% Satisfied with current energy source WILLINGNESS TO PAY LOW WTP 523 PKR per months <3% WTP of monthly income Urban Highest WTP Although there is demand for electricity that is available for longer hours (for instance solar) the low WTP can make private sector delivery of alternatives a challenge, mainly in rural areas CONCLUSIONS

34 SAMPLE VISUALIZATIONS WORLD BANK OPEN DATA PLATFORM

35 Household Spending Patterns SAMPLE VISUALIZATIONS

36 Monthly Electricity Spending Distribution SAMPLE VISUALIZATIONS

37 Household Grid Connectivity for the Sample SAMPLE VISUALIZATIONS

38 CONTACT INFORMATION Contact Information: Hassam Hussain Consultant, Sustainable Business Practices