The World in 2050 Sustainable Development Goals & Paris Climate Agreement within Planetary Boundaries

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1 The World in 2050 Sustainable Development Goals & Paris Climate Agreement within Planetary Boundaries TWI2050 COP 23 6 th November 2017 Professor Johan Rockström Executive Director, Stockholm Resilience Centre Professor of Environmental Science, Stockholm University Photo: O.Henriksson/Azote

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4 From a small world on a large planet

5 To a large world on a small planet

6 In 50 years we tipped from 10,000 years Holocene to the Anthropocene What we do next 50 years will determine next 10,000 years Image: Mattias Klum

7 Anthropocene + Holocene + Tipping Points = Planetary Boundaries

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9 Equity and Justice in an Increasingly Turbulent World

10 Planetary Stewardship Photo: Trollbäck and Compan

11 World Transformations Towards exponential to Global solutions Sustainable Development Photo: NASA

12 Towards transformation Four priority areas Source: Rockström et al. (2016). Global Commons in the Anthropocene: World Development on a Stable and Resilient Planet. IIASA &SRC Global energy system transformation Transformation towards sustainable cities & urbanisation Transformation towards a healthy & sustainable food system A transformation to a circular economy paradigm Photo: Mattias Klum

13 The 4 th Industrial Revolution within Planetary Boundaries Photo: Google

14 A Global Carbon Law Halving Emissions Every Decade 40GtCO 2 20GtCO 2 10GtCO 2 5GtCO

15 The World In 2050 Degree of Global Sustainable Develpment Radical transformative pathways to meet the SDGs within planetary boundaries Planetary Boundaries Year

16 The World In 2050 Degree of Global Sustainable Develpment Transformative pathways to meet the SDGs within planetary boundaries Sustainable Development Pathways Modelling Pathways Conceptualize pathway space : storylines, branching points, assumptions Theory and Model Development Integration of models and approaches from different knowledge domains Explore solutions, synergies and trade-offs Developing Narratives for Sustainability Transformation Narratives as instruments to faciliate the SD agenda Connecting global and regional narratives Planetary Overarching Connecting Framing science Narrative and stakeholders Boundaries Target Spaces 2030 Acheiving the SDGs SDGs Sustained on stable Eaerth system Sustainable Development Indicators: Societal targets and environmental sustainability constraints Concepts and Definitions Measurability and Data collection Theory 2050 and model extensions Year

17 The World in 2050 Partners Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment (CIRED) Climate Center Service Germany (GERICS) Earth Institute, Columbia University European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the University of Oxford Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Future Ocean German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) Millennium Institute MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Change (PIK) Stockholm Resilience Centre Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) 17, date

18 The World in 2050 Network Alpen-Adria University (AAU) Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System (AIMES) Austrian Research Promotion Agency Australian National University (ANU) Arizona State University (ASU) University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES) Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturals (CEMADEN) Centre for Global Sustainability Studies (CGSS) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Conservation International Earth League, whole Earth system modelling initiative Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI) Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz Future Earth Global Environment Facility (GEF) Imperial College Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) International Energy Agency (IEA) 18, date

19 The World in 2050 Network International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) International Monetary Fund (IMF) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Korea University (KU) London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) National Science Foundation (NSF) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen (RWTH) Stakeholder Forum Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (FORMAS) Tsinghua University UNDESA UNEP Université Catholique de Louvain University of Sussex US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) World Bank World Wildlife Fund (WWF) 19, date

20 Universal coverage of SDGs Economic Modelling & Analysis Integrated Assessment (Modelling) Social Science / Governance Research Grand challenge calling for further integration of natural and social sciences for goal-oriented, policy relevant research 20

21 World Prosperity within Stable and Resilient Earth System