Transitions to Low-Carbon Economy

Transcription

1 Transitions to Low-Carbon Economy Nebojsa Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology Fordham University Law School 20 September 2017

2 Transitions to Low-Carbon Economy & How to Finance it Nebojsa Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology Fordham University Law School 20 September 2017

3 A GLOBAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE Established as a scientific bridge between East and West After Cold War ended focused on multiple dimensions of global change Now embarked on the new research strategy for the next decade 2017 #3

4 23 IIASA NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATIONS International, independent, interdisciplinary science research & big-data on major global problems Solution & policy oriented, integrated systems analysis 2017 #4

5 The Paris Agreement Bildquelle: Limiting global Achieving net-zero Regular review and Mobilizing $100 warming to GHG emissions by mid of improvement of nationally billion a year in well below the 21st century determined contributions support by degrees celsius through 2025 Source: Schellnhuber, #5

6 Global Transformations Years before present People Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #9

7 Global Transformations Neolithic Revolution Years before present People Million Neolithic 1700 A.D Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #10

8 Global Transformations Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions Years before present ,000 Million Industrial People Million Neolithic 1700 A.D Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #11

9 Global Transformations People Anthropocene Sustainability Years before present after present Anthropocene Industrial 7,000 Million Sustainability 700 Million 1700 A.D. Neolithic 12.5 Billion 5 Billion Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Lutz & Scherbov, 2007; #12

10 100,000-year ice-core record Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen Rockström IUCN, 2017 #13

11 Holocene Temperature Profile Adapted from Shakun et al and Marcott et al Rockström IUCN, 2017 #14

12 Tipping Elements & Paris Adapted from Schellnhuber et al Rockström IUCN, 2017 #15

13 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #17

14 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #18

15 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #19

16 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #20

17 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #21

18 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #22

19 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #23

20 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #24

21 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #25

22 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #26

23 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #27

24 Possible Unified Analytical Approach Proximate Drivers Population Economy Technology Governance Scenario Narratives Integrated Models Values and Needs Knowledge and Understanding Power Structure Culture Ultimate Drivers Source: Paul Raskin, #28

25 100% Urbanization World 80% IIASA SRES A2r scenario IIASA SRES B1 scenario Population 60% 40% Historical (UN) IIASA SRES B2 scenario 20% 0% Source: Grubler et al #29

26 Urbanization World, UK, BRICs 100% 80% UK IIASA SRES A2r scenario IIASA SRES B1 scenario Population 60% 40% Historical (UN) IIASA SRES B2 scenario BRICs 20% 0% Source: Grubler et al #30

27 Global Educational Attainment 100% 80% Primary Education+ Population 60% 40% Secondary Education+ 20% 0% Source: Lutz et al., #31

28 Participatory Governance 100% 80% Participatory Population 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: Modelski & Perry, 2008; #32

29 100% Participatory Governance Slavery Abolishment Population 80% 60% 40% Abolishment 1906 China 1948 UN Declaration of Human Rights Participatory 20% 1863 United States of America 0% Source: & Rogner, 2012; 2017 #33

30 Dimensions of Transformation Technology Transformation Governance Economic Social Demographic Knowledge Values Source: Paul Raskin, #34

31 IAM Models, Narratives and Scenarios SSPs (Basic Drivers) Narratives O Neill et al GDP Dellink, Crespo, Leimbach et al. KC & Lutz POP Urbanization Jiang & O Neill Technology, Demand, Lifestyles, Productivity Energy Land-use GHG Emissions Aerosol/Pollutant Emissions AIM/CGE, GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM, REMIND-MAGPIE, WITCH-GLOBIOM Source: Riahi et.al, #35

32 Billion tons CO #36

33 Billion tons CO #37

34 IPCC RCPs SSPs New community scenarios for climate mitigation, adaptation, vulnerability and impacts assessments MESSAGE (IIASA) AIM (NIES) GCAM (PNNL) IMAGE (PBL) van Vuuren et al, 2011; Jones et al, #38

35 Sources of Uncertainty in Future Global Mean Temperature Source: IPCC WGI, #39

36 Global CO 2 Emissions 2017 #41

37 Global CO2 Emissions Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2) IPCC Category I RCP o C o C 2.0 RCP Source: Rogelj et. al, #42

38 Cumulative Emissions & Temperature Source: IPCC WGI, #43

39 Urban Embodied Emissions Compared to Global Budget of 800 GtCO 2 for 2 o C Source: Müller et al., #44

40 Net-negative CO 2 Emissions Max. temperature change in 21th century Net carbon emission (in year 2100) net negative carbon emissions NO Scenarios with net negative Emissions above ~ 2.8 degree NO Scenarios without net negative Emissions below ~ 1.5 degree Max. temperature change [K] Net carbon emissions in 2100 [Gt CO2] #45

41 Cambridge University Press 2017 #46

42 Global Primary Energy Historical Evolution EJ Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Nuklearenergie Mikrochip Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Dampfmaschine Elektrischer Motor Fernseher Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass #47

43 Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 EJ Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, #48

44 Global Water Withdrawals A Transformational Pathway Gm Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Fricko et al, #49

45 Global Primärenergie Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energie Einsparungen (Effizienz, Umwandlung und Verhalten) ~50% Verbesserung bis 2030 ~50% EE bis 2030 EJ o C Renewables Gas Nuclear Oil 200 Coal Biomass #50

46 Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies 1.2% Total Global Policy Costs ( ) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, #51

47 2030 GEA Goals and Targets Universal Access to Modern Energy Double Energy Efficiency Improvement Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/ #52

48 2017 #53

49 Interplay and the SDGs Fundamentally, there are two agendas embedded in the SDGs We can call them (i) the human security agenda and (ii) the planetary boundaries agenda The challenge is to make these agendas synergistic rather than competitive Consider the case of Africa and the issues of demographic trends and food security under the impacts of climate change Oran Young, Program on Governance for Sustainable Development Bren School, UCSB

50 The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com) SDGs and their targets basis for the 2030 target space to be achieved from base-year Second target space is 2050 and beyond for achieving sustainability for all and the planet Backasting storylines join target spaces in broad terms through transformational change Model results and storyline interpretations result in sustainable development pathways 2017 #55

51 The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com) Doing More with Less within Planetary Boundaries Transformation Diffusion Growing number of actors of change: green businesses cities civil society science IGOs (UN etc.) Legitimacy of BAU eroding New values and norms 2050: Sustainability transformation 2030: Achievement of SDGs Vision: Sustainable Future Source: After WBGU, #56

52 The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com) Transformation Diffusion Doing More with Less within Planetary Boundaries Legitimacy of BAU eroding Target space Vision: Sustainable Future One backcasting storyline and many transformational pathways Target space Source: After WBGU, #57

53 UK Replacement within Vehicle Fleets 2017 #60

54 2017 #64

55 Supply Technologies Cost Trends $0.8/W Source: Grubler et al, #65

56 Cumulative Experience and Learning: The Importance of granularity Learning rate (% cost change per doubling) N M I J F L E+00 1.E+03 1.E+06 1.E+09 1.E+12 1.E+15 1.E+18 Cumulative # of units produced K G H D C E 1 B Mean of granular end use technologies: LR=20% CumProd= 10e9 Mean of lumpy supply technologies: LR=10% CumProd= 10e4 A A Transitors B DRAMs C Automobiles D Washing machines E Refrigerators F Dishwashers G Freezers (upright) H Freezers (chest) I Dryers J Calculators K CF light bulbs L A/C & heat pumps M Air furnaces N Solar hot water heaters 1 PV modules 2 Wind turbines 3 Heat pumps 4 Gas turbines 5 Pulverized coal boilers 6 Hypropower plants 7 Nuclear reactors 8 Ethanol 9 Coal power plants 10 Coal power plants 11 Gas pipelines 12 Gas combined cycles Source: Wilson et al, Nature CC, #66

57 Investment Portfolios World Today (941bill.) No Sustainability Policies (2558 bill.) Other conversion Renewable Electricity Oil Fossil Electricity Electricity Transmission Coal Gas 2050 Source: Riahi et al, #67

58 Investment Portfolios World Today (941bill.) No Sustainability Policies (2558 bill.) Renewable Electricity Other conversion Oil GEA-Efficiency (2849 bill.) Renewable Electricity CCS Other conversion Fossil Electricity Fossil Electricity Electricity Transmission Efficiency (marginal) Electricity Transmission Coal Gas 2050 Source: Riahi et al, #68 Coal Gas Oil

59 Vision of a Sailing Railway Monorail using sails proposed by Henry R. Palmer in 1828 Source: Marshall, #69

60 THANK YOU