8 April Salmonid Integrated Life Cycles Models Workshop, Sacramento SALMOD SALMOD

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1 EPA Grant Number: R Use of SALMOD and WEAP to simulate salmon response to changes in climate, water flow, temperature, and management: SALMOD Deterministic demographic population model developed by USGS that simulates the dynamics of freshwater salmonid populations Used in Klamath Basin, Sacramento River below Shasta Dam, Butte Ck Case study for spring-run Chinook salmon in Butte Creek, California Lisa Thompson, Chuck Young, David Purkey, Marisa Escobar, Vishal Mehta, Chris Mosser Returning Adults Ocean Outmigrating Juveniles Holding / Spawning Adults Eggs and Alevin Fry 0+ Parr 1+ Parr SALMOD Temperature Flow Habitat Fecundity Growth Mortality Movement SALMOD model processes User specified control over model dynamics using a set of control and data files Model processes include spawning (with redd superimposition and incubation losses), growth (including egg maturation), mortality, and movement (freshetinduced, habitat-induced, and seasonal). Flow diagram from page 7 in: Bartholow et al SALMOD: a population model for salmonids: user's manual. Version W3. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Geological Survey. 76 p. oftware/salmod/ SALMOD Input Files SALMOD II Under development for Klamath River Chapter 3 in Fall Chinook Salmon Life Cycle Production Model. Hendrix et al Prepared for Expert Panel reviewing Chinook salmon of the Klamath River Basin Programming language changed from FORTRAN to Visual Basic User specified time step Minimum of 1 day, but weekly step used for the life cycle model Temporal extent 1 year Incorporates a model for disease-related mortality as a function of temperature and yearly maximum discharge Calculates annual abundance of juvenile salmon at ocean entry Fry and juveniles arise from spawner-emigrant relationships based on Juvenile trapping data Spawner-emigrant relationships developed through EDT model Calibration procedure Will use a sampling-importance-resampling (SIR) algorithm implemented in a Bayesian statistical framework 1

2 Project Goals How might climate change impact temperature and flow in Butte Creek? How might these changes influence stream habitat and spring-run Chinook salmon? Can we counter-act climate impacts through water management? Photo by Allen Harthorn, Friends of Butte Creek Outline Butte Creek watershed Modeling approach WEAP 21 model Hydrology model Water temperature model SALMOD model Climate scenarios Management options Reaches and Subreaches for Temperature Module Subwatersheds for Rainfall Runoff Module Butte Creek Watershed Location of Butte Creek and Feather River Watersheds in California Input Data, Models and Outputs Climate Interpolated Observations , daily: P, Tair, RH, Wind, Qobs, Twaterobs Downscaled Projections daily: P, Tair, RH, Wind Reservoir Temperature Stratification WEAP-1D Watershed Hydrology, Hydropower and Management WEAP weekly: Rnet, P, Tair, Wind Calibrated to Qobs and Twaterobs Flow, Water Temperature Qmod, Twatermod Population Dynamics SALMOD mesohabitat unit, flow, and temperature Fish Abundance WEAP: Hydrologic and water management model Developed by Stockholm Environment Institute WEAP21: Integrates watershed hydrologic processes with the water resources management system Climatic information direct input Based on a holistic vision of integrated water resources management supply and demand 2

3 Elevation Bands, Soils, Land Use Unimpaired Hydrology WEAP modeling gperiod: Input Climate data CCRC Calibration Unimpaired flows data - ResSim Operations Infrastructure Diversions Reservoirs Powerhouses Operations Flow Requirements Operation Rules Temperature Model Domain WEAP Streamflow and Temperature Calibrations SALMOD Calibration Observed Predicted R 2 =

4 Climate Scenarios Streamflow and Temperature Change California Climate Center Maurer and Hidalgo, 2008 Bias corrected Spatial downscaled 2 Emission Scenarios SresA2 = business as usual SresB1 = low emission 6 Global Circulation Models cnrmcm3 (CNRM CM3) gfdlcm21 (GFDL CM2.1) miroc32med (CCSR MIROC 3.2 med. Res.) mpiecham5 (MPI-OM ECHAM5) ncarccsm3 (NCAR CCSM3.0) ncarpcm1 (NCAR PCM1) Temperature Change Along Creek Summer Survival of Adult Salmon Added 15,000 adults each spring Calculated proportion that survived to spawn Year Management Adaptations Management Adaptations and Temperature No diversion Cold water savings Combination of both 4

5 Trinity Trinity R. Clear Ck Whiskeytow n Cottonwood Ck Elder/Thomes Ck East Park/Stony Gorge/Black But te Stony Ck. Clear Lake Berryessa Cache Ck. Putah Ck. San Luis Sacramento R. Shasta 1 McCloud R. Pit R. Cow Ck. Battle Ck. Almanor Big Chico Ck. North and Middle Fk. Feather R. Butte Ck. Oroville South Fk. Feather R. New Bullards Bar North Fk. Yuba R. Middle and South Fk. Yuba R. Camp Far West Bear R. Cross Canal Tulare Lake Upper Pit R. North and Middle Fk. American R. South Fk. Folsom American Cosumnes R. Camanche Pardee Mokelumne R. New Hogan Calaveras R. Tulloch New Melones Stanislaus R. New Don Pedro TuolumneR. McClure Merced R. Eastman/Hensley Chowchilla/Fresno R. MillertoSan Joaquin n R. Pine Kings R. Flats Kaw Kaweah R. eah Suc Tule R. ces s Isab Kern R. ella Salmonid Integrated Life Cycles Models Management Adaptations and Survival Time Management Adaptations and Spawner Survival on Threshold Met Years Until Extinctio Climate change No diversion Cold water savings Combination of both nce in Spawner Survival Proportional Differen No diversion Cold water savings Combination of both Climate Scenario Climate Scenario Outcomes Climate Scenarios A2 - Salmon gone for all models B1 - Salmon may last to end of century Management Adaptations No diversioni No diversion + cold water savings Salmon survival time extended 0 15 years 30 60% more spawners Cold water savings No improvement or worse Answers to questions about the model See handout Next Steps More water management options Additional reservoir operations Improve reservoir management use short-term weather predictions to improve timing of water transfer Mechanisms behind different responses to different scenarios Hydropower implications of water management changes Economic implications of water management for agricultural production Fish in other Central Valley watersheds Central Valley Water Management Model Interactive Groundwater Irrigated Agriculture Rivers and Tributaries Inter-Basin Transfer Canals and Diversions Reservoir M&I/Environ. Demand Instream Flow Requirement Net Delta Outflow Tehama Colusa Canal Glen Colusa Canal Yolo Bypass Sutter Bypass Sacramento R. DELTA Friant Kern Canal 5

6 Upper Watersheds 25 Rim watersheds delineated by land use and elevation Central Valley 21 Central Valley demand areas divided by water use: Irrigated Agriculture Urban Indoor Ub Urban Outdoor Managed Wetlands Also includes: 22 in-stream flow requirements 21 groundwater basins Inter-Basin transfers to San Francisco, Central Coast, and South Coast WEAP Model Considerations What s included: Climate-driven hydrology: supply and demand Water supply operations Ecosystems: in-stream flow, managed wetlands Groundwater Water quality: Delta Salinity Flood conveyance What s NOT included: Economics Hydropower Water quality: Temperature, BOD Acknowledgements US Environmental Protection Agency US Geological Survey California Department of Fish and Game Pacific Gas and Electric US Fish and Wildlife Service Friends of Butte Creek California Sportfishing Protection Alliance Summary Photo by Lisa Thompson 6