EPA Grant Number: R833017

Transcription

1 EPA Grant Number: R Climate change adaptations to prevent loss of aquatic ecosystem services: Case study for spring-run Chinook salmon in Butte Creek, California Lisa Thompson, Peter Moyle, David Purkey, Melanie Truan, Marisa Escobar, Christopher Mosser, Andrew Engilis Jr. Photo by Allen Harthorn, Friends of Butte Creek Project Goals How might climate change impact temperature and flow in Butte Creek? How might these changes may influence stream habitat and spring-run Chinook salmon? Can we counter-act climate impacts through water management? Outline Butte Creek watershed Modeling approach WEAP 21 model Hydrology model Water temperature model SALMOD model Climate scenarios Management options Reaches and Subreaches for Temperature Module Subwatersheds for Rainfall Runoff Module Butte Creek Watershed Location of Butte Creek and Feather River Watersheds in California Input Data, Models and Outputs Climate Interpolated Observations , daily: P, Tair, RH, Wind, Qobs, Twaterobs Downscaled Projections daily: P, Tair, RH, Wind Reservoir Temperature Stratification WEAP-1D Watershed Hydrology, Hydropower and Management WEAP weekly: Rnet, P, Tair, Wind Calibrated to Qobs and Twaterobs Flow, Water Temperature Qmod, Twatermod Population Dynamics SALMOD mesohabitat unit, flow, and temperature Fish Abundance 1

2 WEAP: Hydrologic and water management model Elevation Bands, Soils, Land Use Developed by Stockholm Environment Institute WEAP21: Integrates watershed hydrologic processes with the water resources management system Climatic information direct input Based on a holistic vision of integrated water resources management supply and demand Unimpaired Hydrology Operations WEAP modeling gperiod: Input Climate data CCRC Calibration Unimpaired flows data - ResSim Infrastructure Diversions Reservoirs Powerhouses Operations Flow Requirements Operation Rules WEAP Streamflow and Temperature Calibrations Temperature Model Domain 2

3 SALMOD Originally developed by USGS Helped with modifications to Butte Creek model Returning Adults Ocean Holding / Spawning Adults Eggs and Alevin Fry SALMOD Temperature Flow Habitat Outmigrating Juveniles 0+ Parr 1+ Parr Fecundity Growth Mortality Movement SALMOD Calibration Climate Scenarios California Climate Center Maurer and Hidalgo, 2008 Bias corrected Spatial downscaled 2 Emission Scenarios SresA2 = business as usual SresB1 = low emission 6 Global Circulation Models cnrmcm3 (CNRM CM3) gfdlcm21 (GFDL CM2.1) miroc32med (CCSR MIROC 3.2 med. Res.) mpiecham5 (MPI-OM ECHAM5) ncarccsm3 (NCAR CCSM3.0) ncarpcm1 (NCAR PCM1) Streamflow and Temperature Change Temperature Change Along Creek 3

4 Summer Survival of Adult Salmon Management Adaptations No diversion Cold water savings Combination of both Added 15,000 adults each spring Calculated proportion that survived to spawn Year Management Adaptations and Temperature Management Adaptations and Survival Time on Threshold Met Years Until Extinctio Climate change No diversion Cold water savings Combination of both Climate Scenario Management Adaptations and Spawner Survival Outcomes nce in Spawner Survival Proportional Differen Climate Scenario No diversion Cold water savings Combination of both Climate Scenarios A2 - Salmon gone for all models B1 - Salmon may last to end of century Management Adaptations No diversioni No diversion + cold water savings Salmon survival time extended 0 15 years 30 60% more spawners Cold water savings No improvement or worse 4

5 Next Steps More water management options Additional reservoir operations Improve reservoir management use shortterm weather predictions to improve timing of water transfer Mechanisms behind different responses to different scenrios Other spring-run Chinook salmon watersheds Acknowledgements US Environmental Protection Agency US Geological Survey California Department of Fish and Game Pacific Gas and Electric US Fish and Wildlife Service Friends of Butte Creek California Sportfishing Protection Alliance Summary Photo by Lisa Thompson 5