Time 05/31 (Friday) Lead 08:45 10:30 AM Taiwan Emission Cost Analysis System (TECAS) Overview and demo/hands-on (Regional Partner breakfast meeting)
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1 Air Cost/Benefit and Attainment Assessment (ABaCAS) Training Workshop (Taipei, 5/30-31/2013) Time 05/30 (Thursday) Lead 09:15-10:00 AM Overview of U.S. EPA Air Quality Management Program Dale EVARTS/USEPA 10:00-10:50 AM Air Benefit /Cost and Attainment Assessment System (ABaCAS) Carey JANG, USEPA 10:50-11:00 AM Break/Discussion 11:00 12:00 PM Air Quality Benefit Assessment (BenMAP CE) Neal Fann/USEPA 12:00-01:30 PM Lunch break/discussion 1:30 1:45 pm Preparation and installation of ABaCAS System for Demo/Hands-on Sessions All participants 1:45 3:45 pm BenMAP CE Demo & Hands-on Neal Fann/USEPA 3:45-4:00 PM Break 4:00-5:00 PM BenMAP CE discussion and Q/A All Participants Time 05/31 (Friday) Lead 08:45 10:30 AM Taiwan Emission Cost Analysis System (TECAS) Overview and demo/hands-on (Regional Partner breakfast meeting) Joshua FU/Univ. of TN H.C. LAI/C.J. Univ. 10:30-10:45 AM Break/Discussion 10:45-11:45 AM Air Pollution Cost Estimate and Analysis: Demo/Hands-on of CsST tool (CoST CE) Joshua FU/Univ. of TN 11:45 AM-12:15 PM Real-time Air Quality Response to Emissions Control: Response Surface Model (RSM/CMAQ) and its Applications H.C. LAI/C.J. Univ. Carey JANG, USEPA Joshua FU/Univ. of TN 12:15-01:30 PM Lunch break/discussion 1:30 2:30 PM RSM-VAT Demo/Hands-on: Taiwan Application Joshua FU/Univ. of TN H.C. LAI/C.J. Univ. 2:30-3:00 PM AQ Attainment Demonstration & Assessment (SMAT CE) Carey JANG, USEPA 3:00 -:3:15 PM Break 3:15 -:4:00 PM Demo/Hands-on of SMAT CE tool Carey JANG, USEPA 4:00-5:00 PM Discussion & Q/A of ABaCAS All Participants
2 Development of Air Benefit/Cost and Attainment Assessment System in Asia PM 2.5 Emissions Control O3 Health & Environ. Benefit Air Quality Benefit Carey Jang, Ph.D. 張志誠 Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards (OAQPS) U.S. EPA ABaCAS Workshop, Taipei, Taiwan, May 30-31, 2013
3 LOGO Outline Air Pollution in Asia and its Impacts Overview of Air Pollution Control Benefit/Cost and Attainment Assessment tools for Regulatory Policies and Scientific Research Development of Air Benefit/Cost and Attainment Assessment System (ABaCAS) in Asia ABaCAS : An integrated decision support system to link air pollution control cost to AQ benefits & health/env. benefits, including four key components: BenMAP CE: Health & environmental benefits CoST CE: Control cost analysis & estimate RSM/CMAQ: Real-time air quality benefits SMAT CE: Attainment test & assessment 3
4 LOGO Air Pollution: A Serious Issue in Asia Contributed to >2 million premature deaths in Asia in 2010 (~1.2 million in China ) Ranked 4 th at mortality & health burden in E. Asia and 6 th in S. Asia Ambient fine particle (PM2.5) is the leading cause Global Burden of Diseases Study 2010 (Published in Lancet, Dec. 2012) Airpocalypse? Nealy 1,000 ug/m 3 of PM2.5 recorded in Beijing in Jan (~30 times of WHO guideline levels)
5 National (Regional) PM2.5 Standards in Asia Country/Region PM2.5 (Annual average) (mg/m 3 ) PM2.5 (Daily average) (mg/m 3 ) Taiwan* Japan* Thailand* China* Hongkong* India* Bangladesh Mongolia Pakistan Singapore Sri Lanka WHO (AQ Guideline) 10 (IT-1: 35) USA* 15 (12*) (IT-1: 75) *: announced as national (regional) standards; *: Proposed in 2013
6 Beijing Hong Kong Taipei Tokyo Manila PM 2.5 Jakarta India Bangkok
7 Beijing City Center, 1/10/2013 vs. clear day (Reuters) Beijing Satellite Image (NASA/Modis) 1/14/2013 vs. 1/03/2013 (clear) Beijing Dongbianmen Gate, 1/12/2013 vs. clear day (Reuters) Beijing Skyline, 1/14/2013 vs. clear day (AFP/Getty Images) Beijing
8 Air Pollution in Beijing (January 2013) AQ Monitored by U.S. Embassy in Beijing (Jan. 12, 2013)
9 A View from Carey s Window (Beijing 2010, 8 am) 3/29: Air Quality Index: 258 PM2.5: 208 mg/m 3 3/30: Air Quality Index: 321 PM2.5: 271 mg/m 3 3/31: Air Quality Index: 188 PM2.5: 129 mg/m 3 4/1: Air Quality Index: 82 PM2.5: 28 mg/m 3
10 LOGO 1960 s & 1970 s in USA Los Angeles photochemical smog NewYork Washington D.C. Denver Brown Cloud
11 New York Times, Feb. 6, 1930
12 Impacts of PM 2.5 Respiratory Disease Health Visibility Cardiovascular Disease PM 2.5 Acid Deposition & Ecosystem Toxicity & Carcinogen Environment Climate Change
13 PM2.5 Impacts on Health Differences of 10 ug/m 3 increased the risk of dying by 21% cardiac arrest (heart attack) by 18% Ischemic Heart Disease (narrowed arteries) by 38% Arrhythmia (heart beat disorder) Living in polluted cities (such as Los Angelese, New York, etc.) equate to smoking two cigarettes a day (Americal Lung Association, State of the Air 2009 report) U.S. effort in improving air quality (mainly PM) over recent decades in 51 cities led to 5-month increase of average life expectancy U.S. News and World Report, April 2010 ( U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air and Radiation 13
14 40 Years of USEPA s Achievements ( ) Pollution Down While Economic Growth Continues 14
15 Health/Economic Benefits of U.S. Clean Air Act Clean Air Act Benefits ,000 premature deaths avoided 40:1 ratio of benefits/costs Clean Air Act Benefits ,000 premature deaths avoided, as well as Millions of cases of heart disease, bronchitis, asthma and other illnesses 25:1 ratio of benefits/costs (Full report available at 15
16 EPA s Transport Rule : Cost/Benefit Analysis The Transport Rule (2012) will reduce power plant emissions by 2014 (over 2005 levels): SO2 by 73% and NOx by 54% (control cost tool) Air Quality Benefit (estimated by AQ modeling tools: CMAQ/SMAT) Health Benefit (estimated by health impact tool: BenMAP) Benefit/Cost Ratio = 25~50 16
17 Effective AQ Management Requires Scientifically Sound Cost/Benefit Assessment Tools Emission Control Identify and compare cost s of alternative control strategies CoST Tool Emission Control AQ Benefit Health Benefit Assess air quality benefit of emission control RSM/CMAQ Assess health and Environ. benefit of emission control BenMAP Health & Environ. Benefit Air Quality Benefit
18 Technology Transfer & Capacity Building of Key AQ Cost/Benefit Assessment Tools in Asia Available U.S.EPA Tools AQ Modeling Assessment Tools Health & Economic Assessment Tools Emission modeling Air quality modeling Control/Response modeling Health & environmental impact assessment tool Control cost analysis tool Attainment assessment tool Air Benefit and Cost and Attainment Assessment System SMOKE CMAQ RSM BenMAP CE TECAS/CoST CE SMAT CE ABaCAS 18
19 Taiwan Air Quality Modeling Taiwan Emission Control Cost Analysis System (TECAS) Control Base Impact of Regional Transport Real-time Control/ Response (RSM) ABaCAS Integrated Cost/Benefit Assessment
20 ABaCAS : Air Benefit/Cost & Attainment Assessment System Provide Health Impacts and Economic Benefits Estimate Provide Real-time Air Quality Response of Emissions Control Please visit ABaCAS website for more information: Contact us: Dr. Carey Jang Jang.Carey@epa.gov Dr. Yun(Dustin) Zhu zhuyun@scut.edu.cn Provide Emissions Control Cost Analysis and Estimate Provide Attainment Test/Demo for PM2.5 & O3 Non-attainment Areas
21 ABaCAS CoST CE Control Cost Attainment SMAT CE RSM/CMAQ AQ Benefit BenMAP CE Health /Economy Benefit $$ (cost) Tons (emis) AQ (benefit) Tons (emis) $$ (benefit) AQ (benefit) abacas-dss.com AQ (benefit) $$ (cost) $$ (benefit) $$ (cost)
22 Air Quality Benefit Attainment Test/Demo Control Cost Estimate Health & Env. Benefit An Integrated Air Quality Management and Decision Support System abacas-dss.com
23 What Can ABaCAS Do? ABaCAS provides an integrated framework to link cost and benefit assessment effectively Provide efficient assessment of AQ and health benefits, benefit/cost analysis & optimization, and attainment assessment under various control strategies/scenarios ABaCAS provides a user-friendly and open-source environment User-friendly for common users with easy-to-use visualization & analysis functions Open-source software for advanced users/developers (Leveraged from current next-generation BenMAP CE & SMAT CE development efforts)
24 ABaCAS: Two-sided Features System Framework (conceptual model) Policy Support (decision-making Tool) Living Development (continuously evolving) Integrated Application (streamlined assessment) Community-based (open-source) Software Programs Scientific Research Ready-to-Use Individual Applications Institutionalized
25 What you will learn/get from this workshop: ABaCAS framework/concept & software package Scientific decision-support tools for air pollution control benefit and cost and attainment assessment BenMAP CE, Cost CE, RSM-VAT, SMAT CE What you will not learn/get from this workshop: Air Quality modeling & emission inventory CMAQ, SMOKE Atmospheric chemistry of PM2.5 & O3 (However, given in Appendix)
26 ABaCAS: Air Benefit/Cost and Attainment Assessment System An Integrated Decision Support System for Air Pollution Cost/Benefit and Attainment Assessment (For further information, please visit abacas-dss.com )
27 BenMAP CE: Environmental Benefit Mapping & Analysis Program (Community Edition) Next-Generation BenMAP ( ) Provide Health Impacts & Economic Benefits Estimate: Developed by USEPA to estimate health & environmental impacts and economic benefits occurring when populations experience changes in AQ
28 BenMAP CE: Evolved from legacy BenMAP developed by U.S. EPA: Now a community tool (open source) ( Major Features: User-friendly Computational efficiency Open source code Integrated GIS mapping & data query Supporting multi-pollutant analysis International applications Air quality changes Health effects incidence estimation Valuation
29 Baseline Control 1 st Step: AQ Data Setup AQ Benefit
30 2 nd Step: Health Impact Estimate Health Impact & Incidence Estimate AQ Benefit (gridded) Population-weighted
31 3 rd Step: Aggregation, Pooling, Valuation, Uncertainty Analysis Incidence (gridded) Health/Economic Benefits Estimate (Aggregated & Pooled) Spatial Aggregation & Multi-study Pooling (uncertainly analysis)
32 BenMAP CE China/YRD & Taiwan Applications Ongoing BenMAP CE Application in Taiwan Completed BenMAP CE Application in YRD, China
33 SMAT: Software for Model Attainment Test SMAT CE (Community Edition) ( ) Provide Attainment Test (Demo) for PM2.5 & O3 Non-attainment Areas: Use monitoring data as the base, and use model data for providing emissions control efficacy (relative reduction factor) of future AQ strategy
34 SMAT: Software for Model Attainment Test Before (63 NA) After (1 NA) ug/m 3 ug/m 3 (2005) (2014) Developed by USEPA to perform attainment test/demo for national rules (e.g., Transport Rule) or SIPs on PM2.5 & O3 Good timing to serve as an attainment strategy & test tool for new PM2.5 standards in Asia
35 Role of SMAT CE in USEPA s Regulatory Modeling Emissions Inventory Data Meteorological Model (WRF) Emissions Model (SMOKE) Met Output Processor (MCIP) AQ Model (CMAQ) AQ predictions & source contributions Monitoring Data Attainment Assessment (SMAT CE) Legend Input Core Element Output Cost/Benefit 35 Spatial Fields of Projected AQ Benefits Model (BenMAP CE) Projected AQ at Monitors Cost Model (CoST)
36 RSM: Response Surface Model RSM-VAT ( ) Provide Real-time AQ Response of Emissions Control: A tool developed by USEPA to provide real-time response of pollutant concentrations to changes in emission sources of interest
37 Policies Impacts Air Benefit & Control Assessment (ABaCAS) Decision Support System CoST Cost Analysis Tool Decision-maker/Analyst Modeling Framework RSM CMAQ Air Quality Model Response Surface Model Control Base Integrated Assessment BenMAP Health Benefits Model Emissions Air Quality Air Pollution Abatement Cost Tool Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model Benefit Mapping Tool Cost/Benefit Analysis Emissions Control Air Quality Benefit Health Benefit 37
38 RSM Applications in USA & Asia USA REMSAD RSM (PM2.5) CAMx RSM (O3) CMAQ Multi-pollutant RSM CMAQ EGU (Utility) RSM Asia China PM/O3 RSM modeling Taiwan PM/O3 RSM modeling Beijing Guangzhou Shanghai Taiwan 38
39 160 Ongoing RSM Modeling: China/ YRD Objectives: Provide real-time air quality response to emissions control in YRD Develop cost-effective air pollution control strategies (cost/benefit optimization) Assess the source/receptor relationships among key economic areas in YRD (e.g., Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, etc.) YRD YRD RSM/CMAQ RSM/CMAQ Domain D C A B
40 Ongoing Taiwan RSM: Experimental Design Regions of Interests: 4 key regions Policy Factors (emissions Control): NOx-PP; NOx-Industry; NOx-Mobile; SO 2 -PP ; SO 2 -Industry ; VOC-Mobile; VOC-area, NH 3 -area; regional transport (Total 33 factors) Model Configuration: Modeling Domain: 3 3km, grid cells, 24 layers Model Year: 2007 Model Periods: Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Models Used: CMAQ 4.7.1/MM5 CMAQ runs for Creating RSM : Conduct 215 CMAQ model runs to develop RSM result Taiwan RSM Domain North A East D B Central C South CMAS Poster: Xinyi Dong - Assessment of inorganic fine particulate matter response to ammonia emissions over Taiwan using response surface modeling method 40
41 CoST CE: Control Strategy Tool (Prototype) China Pollution Abatement Cost Model CoST Community Edition ( ) AIM/Enduse Model (Japan) Provide Control Cost Analysis and Estimate : A prototype under development to give an estimate of control cost and link to RSM/CMAQ & BenMAP for cost/benefit assessment
42 CoST CE: A Prototype under Development Calculations of control cost and analysis (max conotrol, least cost, etc.) Selections of pollutant, technology, and region
43 ABaCAS & its Components: Development Timeline 2012 Fall 2013 Winter 2013 Spring 2013 Summer 2013 Fall 2014 Winter 2014 Spring 2014 Summer BenMAP CE v.0.63 (public beta) v.1.0 (public) v.2.0 (public) SMAT CE v.0.1 (alpha) v.0.24 (beta) v.1.0 (public) v.2.0 (public) CoST CE v.0.1 (alpha) v.1.0 (beta) v.2.0 (public) RSM/CMAQ v.1.0 (beta) v.2.0 (beta) v.2.0 (public) ABaCAS v.1.0 (beta) v.1.1 (public) v.2.0 (public) Workshop/ Training 1 st 2 nd ABaCAS will require leadership & resources from Asian scientists!
44 Summary Public awareness & new AQ standards (PM2.5 & O3) and is a key milestone toward protecting public health and environment in Asia Effective AQ management requires scientifically sound tools for air pollution control cost and benefit assessment ABaCAS can serve as a key decision support community tool for air pollution cost/benefit and attainment assessment in Asia PM 2.5 Health & Enviro n. Benefit O3 Emission Control Air Quality Benefit
45 Air Quality Modeling & Cost/Benefit Assessment for Scientific Research & Policy Support 1. Impacts of Air Pollution Appendix A: Atmospheric Chemistry of PM2.5 & O3 2. Air Quality Modeling Assessment Appendix B: Evolution & Development of AQ Models Appendix C: CMAQ v.5 Updates (Oct release) Appendix D: AQ Modeling Applications in Asia 3. Air Pollution and Climate Change (Appendix E) Carey Jang, U.S. EPA/OAQPS ABaCAS Training Workshop, Taipei, Taiwan, May 30-31, 2013
46 We do not inherit the earth; We just borrow from our children. THANK YOU! Carey Jang U.S. EPA Office of Air and Radiation
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