SOURCE APPORTIONMENT MODELING FOR AIR QUALITY FOR OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENTS UNDER NEPA

Transcription

1 SOURCE APPORTIONMENT MODELING FOR AIR QUALITY FOR OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENTS UNDER NEPA Krish Vijayaraghavan, John Grant, Tejas Shah, Zhen Liu, Ralph Morris Ramboll Environ, Novato, CA PERF Meeting November 9-10,

2 OUTLINE Overview of NEPA Emissions Estimation for Oil and Gas Developments Other Emissions Sources Air Quality Source Apportionment Modeling Summary 2

3 OVERVIEW OF NEPA National Environmental Policy Act Assess environmental impacts from federal actions (e.g., Drilling on federal mineral estate) Categorical Exclusions (rare), Environmental Assessment (EA) or Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) Oil and gas lease sale NEPA NEPA Programmatic RMP or EIS EA Application to drill NEPA EA 3

4 WHY ARE FEDERAL AGENCIES INTERESTED? EXAMPLE: FEDERAL CLASS I AREAS IN NEW MEXICO New Mexico 4

5 WHY ARE FEDERAL AGENCIES INTERESTED? EXAMPLE: SENSITIVE CLASS II AREAS IN NEW MEXICO New Mexico 5

6 WHAT ARE FEDERAL AGENCIES INTERESTED IN? Contribution of O&G development (and downstream sources) to Ozone, PM and other NAAQS within area of influence Nitrogen and sulfur deposition at Class I and sensitive Class II areas Visibility at Class I and sensitive Class II areas GHGs and Climate change Contribution of other cumulative sources to all of the above 6

7 CAMx PHOTOCHEMICAL GRID MODEL Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) Advanced chemical transport model Developed by Ramboll Environ and distributed publicly Widely used by government, academia and consulting Advanced source apportionment methods for ozone, PM and precursors (NOx, SO 2 etc.) Ozone source apportionment tool PM source apportionment tool 7

8 O&G EMISSIONS SPECIES Criteria Air Pollutants and Precursors NOx VOCs PM SO 2 CO Hazardous Air Pollutants BTEX, Formaldehyde, other Greenhouse Gases CH 4, CO 2, N 2 O 8

9 BOTTOM-UP O&G EMISSIONS ESTIMATION Point Sources (e.g., Gas plants, compressor stations, tank batteries) State/Federal permit database actual/potential emissions by SCC and pollutant or Detailed unit level emission calculations using operator provided facility-level operational characteristics Area Sources (e.g., drill and completion equipment) Emissions by source category = [representative emissions per surrogate] x [oil and gas activity surrogate] 9

10 CHEMICAL SPECIES MODELED IN CAMx Ozone PM 2.5 and PM 10 CO and Volatile organic compounds Sulfur compounds SO 2, PM SO 4 Nitrogen compounds NOx (NO, NO 2 ) Inorganic nitrate (HNO 3, PM NO 3 ) Other NOz (N 2 O 5, HNO 2, HNO 4 ) Organic nitrates: PAN, PANX, NTR Reduced nitrogen: NH 3, PM NH 4 + * Methane, Others 10

11 FORMATION OF OZONE AND PM Emission Sources Carbon monoxide (CO) Volatile Organics (VOCs) Nitrogen oxides (NOx) Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) Ammonia (NH 3 ) Primary PM Ozone (O 3 ) Particulate Matter (PM) 11

12 SOURCE APPORTIONMENT AND OTHER TOOLS FOR OZONE AND PM Ozone 1. OSAT Ozone Source Apportionment Technology Track fate and transport of ozone precursor emissions (NOx and VOC) Track source groups (e.g., O&G) Track source regions (e.g., states, non-us etc.) Anthropogenic v. Natural (e.g., wildfires) 2. APCA Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment PM Some emission groups are not controllable (e.g., biogenic emissions) If biogenic VOC + anthropogenic NOx -> ozone under VOC-limited conditions Attribute ozone to anthropogenic NOx PSAT Particulate Source Apportionment Technology: Track PM precursor emissions 12

13 AIR QUALITY AND AIR QUALITY RELATED VALUES Air Quality Ozone PM 2.5 and PM 10 NO 2 SO 2 CO AQRVs Acid rain Visibility and regional haze 13

14 EMISSION SOURCE CATEGORIES Oil and gas development and production Downstream oil and natural gas processing Coal and other mining Power plants: coal-fired, oil-fired, other Other point sources Mobile sources Area anthropogenic sources (e.g., agriculture) Biogenic sources (vegetation) Other natural sources (wildfires) Boundary conditions 14

15 OZONE SOURCE APPORTIONMENT Use CAMx and EPA MATS algorithms to estimate future Design Values Modeled ozone design value (ppb) due to all sources in future year scenario Use APCA tool in CAMx to apportion ozone to different source groups Ozone due to all oil and natural gas development Example results, do not cite 15

16 NON-US CONTRIBUTIONS TO OZONE Ozone from all sources (US and non-us) Ozone from non-u.s. sources only From CAMx Modeling for Year 2006 (Emery et al., 2012) (ppb) ppb from non-us sources in Current NAAQS is 70 ppb. 16

17 PM 2.5 SOURCE APPORTIONMENT Use CAMx and observations to estimate future Design Values New Mexico Modeled 98 th percentile 24-hr PM 2.5 (µg/m 3 ) due to all sources in future year scenario Use PSAT tool in CAMx to apportion PM to different source groups PM 2.5 (µg/m 3 ) due to all oil and gas development New Mexico Example results, do not cite 17

18 ACIDIC DEPOSITION SOURCE APPORTIONMENT Nitrogen and sulfur acidic deposition due to oil and gas developments of interest to various federal agencies such as BLM, NPS, USFWS and USFS Example of nitrogen deposition source apportionment with CAMx at Pecos Wilderness Class I area in New Mexico Annual N deposition (kg/ha) and % of total Example results, do not cite 18

19 LEVERAGE PROGRAMMATIC EIS Regional Management Plans and EISs from Federal agencies study air quality impacts on broad regional scales Example studies by Ramboll Environ in Colorado, Oklahoma, New Mexico etc. Oil and gas developers can tier off these programs to save effort when conducting an EA for a specific project Oil and gas lease sale NEPA NEPA EA Programmatic RMP or EIS Application to drill NEPA EA 19

20 SUMMARY CAMx model offers powerful tools for source apportionment modeling during NEPA assessments of oil and gas developments Determine direct impacts, and indirect and cumulative effects Oil and natural gas producers can save resources during NEPA by tiering off Regional Management Plans and other programmatic EISs where models such as CAMx have been applied Can be responsive to Federal agencies by addressing both air quality and air quality related values efficiently 20

21 QUESTIONS? Krish Vijayaraghavan

22 DISCLAIMER The findings, opinions and conclusions are the work of the authors and do not necessarily represent findings, opinions or conclusions of any other organization 22

23 EXTRA SLIDES 23

24 EXTRA SLIDE FEDERAL CLASS I AREAS 24

25 OZONE AND PM 2.5 DESIGN VALUES (DV) Measured air concentrations expressed in the form of the NAAQS Ozone Annual fourth-highest daily max 8-hour concentration, averaged over 3 years NAAQS = 70 ppb PM year standard: Annual mean, averaged over 3 years (NAAQS = 12 µg/m 3 ) 24 hour standard: 98 th percentile, averaged over 3 years (NAAQS = 35 µg/m 3 ) 25

26 EPA GUIDANCE OZONE PROJECTION APPROACH USING MODELED ATTAINMENT TEST SOFTWARE (MATS) DVF = RRF x DVB DVF = Estimated design value for the future year at monitoring site RRF = Relative response factor at monitoring site (from modeling) DVB = Base design value monitored at site 26