Ozone Source Apportionment Modeling to Support Policy Initiatives in the Eastern United States
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1 Ozone Source Apportionment Modeling to Support Policy Initiatives in the Eastern United States Kenneth Craig, Garnet Erdakos, Lynn Baringer, and Stephen Reid Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, CA 15 th Annual CMAS Conference Chapel Hill, NC October 26, 2016 STI-6537
2 2 Outline Motivation Modeling approach Results: multiple sources examples Results: single-source example Summary and insights
3 3 Motivation Interstate transport has become increasingly important for addressing NAAQS attainment issues. Source apportionment has become an important tool to quantify source impacts on downwind ozone and guide policy decisions (e.g., CSAPR). CSAPR modeling provides state-level source contributions. STI conducted new source apportionment modeling with detailed tagging to support policy initiatives in the eastern United States.
4 4 Modeling Approach 2011 ozone season (May- September) simulation with CAMx version 6.1 Configurations based on EPA s 2011 modeling platform WRF version NEI Version 1 GEOS-Chem boundary conditions Carbon Bond 6r2 Ozone Source Apportionment Technology (OSAT) with APCA APCA = Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Analysis
5 Approach 5 Source Apportionment Tagging Category Tags Individual coal-fired power plants 52 Groups of coal-fired power plants (several dozen EGU) Groups of non-egu points sources within a region Non-point sources (biogenic, on-road, non-road, other ) within 16 regions Initial and boundary conditions OSAT regions for non-point source category
6 Approach 6 Source Apportionment Tagging Simulation Description 1 Point source tags (set 1) 2 Point source tags (set 2) 3 Geographic tags (e.g., on-road) Processor: 16 CPU per simulation (2 nodes) Memory: GB RAM per node per simulation Clock time: 3-4 weeks
7 Approach 7 OSAT Post-Processing Hourly gridded OSAT results Receptor Locations (670 monitors in eastern U.S.) Daily peak 8-hr O 3 contributions for each tag and receptor at hour of peak modeled 8-hr O 3 Reflects contributions during time periods when ozone concentrations are highest Guarantees that daily ozone contributions from all source tags sum to the total modeled 8-hr concentration
8 Approach 8 Access Database Extracted ozone contributions for all tags at 670 monitoring sites across the eastern U.S. Developed sample queries to facilitate data exploration Opportunity for future data mining
9 Results: Multiple Sources 9 Ozone Impacts vs. Distance 1 ppb is the proposed NAAQS significant impact level (SIL) for single-source ozone impacts.
10 Results: Multiple Sources 10 Single Receptor Analysis Delaware sources Non-Delaware sources (6.11 ppb) Ozone contributions in Sussex County, DE, when modeled ozone was greater than 70 ppb (13 days)
11 Results: Single Source 11 Point Source Analysis Brunner Island York Haven, PA 1411 MW generating capacity 2011 NO x emissions: 16,800 tons Brunner Island power plant in southeast Pennsylvania and nearby air quality monitoring sites.
12 Results: Single Source 12 Brunner Island Ozone Impacts Peak modeled 8-hr ozone impacts from the Brunner Island power plant during the 2011 ozone season.
13 Results: Single Source 13 Brunner Island Ozone Impacts Peak modeled 8-hr ozone impacts from the Brunner Island power plant on July 20, 2011.
14 Results: Single Source 14 Daily Ozone Contributions Significant (>0.75 ppb) 8-hr ozone impacts were modeled at one or more PA monitor(s) on 86% (79 of 92) of days during June-August.
15 Results: Single Source 15 Ozone Contributions at Pennsylvania Monitors Significant (>0.75 ppb) 8-hr ozone impacts were modeled on at least one day at 75% of Pennsylvania monitoring sites. AQS Site ID Monitor County Core Based Statistical Area Maximum Modeled Contribution (ppb) Number of Significant Impact Days York York-Hanover, PA Dauphin Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA Lancaster Lancaster, PA Lancaster Lancaster, PA Adams Gettysburg, PA Lebanon Lebanon, PA York York-Hanover, PA Berks Reading, PA Chester Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Franklin Chambersburg, PA
16 Results: Single Source 16 Impacts on High-Ozone Days 10 ppb Brunner Island Impact Monitor increment above NAAQS 6.70 ppb 6 ppb 5 ppb 3.34 ppb 1.44 ppb July 2 July 20 July 21 Modeled 8-hr ozone impacts >0.75 ppb from Brunner Island and incremental monitored ozone concentrations above the NAAQS on days when the NAAQS was exceeded at the Sipe Ave. monitor near Harrisburg.
17 Results: Single Source 17 Ozone Contributions on Neighboring States State Monitors with Significant Ozone Contributions Max. # of Days With Significant Ozone Contribution at any One Monitor Peak Ozone Contribution (ppb) Average of Significant Ozone Contributions (ppb) Pennsylvania Connecticut Delaware Maryland New Jersey New York Summary of significant (>0.75 ppb) modeled 8-hr ozone contributions from Brunner Island at monitoring stations in Pennsylvania and neighboring states.
18 18 Summary and Insights Conducted source apportionment modeling to support policy initiatives in the eastern United States Developed a database to support current analysis and future data mining Multiple sources examples 1-ppb impacts possible several hundred kilometers from large NO x sources At some receptors, in-state ozone contributions are small compared to out-of-state contributions Single-source example (Brunner Island) Significant (>0.75 ppb) ozone impacts in Pennsylvania on most summer days Significant impacts at Harrisburg on three NAAQS exceedance days in 2011 Significant ozone contributions extend several hundred kilometers into neighboring states Further discussion: Representativeness of modeling results from a transport perspective
19 19 Trajectory Spatial Probability Density (Difference plots: high-ozone days vs. all days) Southwesterly transport toward Delaware is less pronounced in 2011 than in other years.
20 sonomatech.com 20 Contact Kenneth Craig Group Manager Atmospheric Modeling
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