Revised EPA Ozone Standard Effects in the West. May 15, 2008

Transcription

1 Revised EPA Ozone Standard Effects in the West May 15, 2008

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3 EPA - all Ozone Monitoring Sites during ozone monitoring sites with complete data, ozone monitoring sites with incomplete data, counties with complete data,

4 EPA map of Counties with Monitors Violating the Primary and Secondary 8-hour Ozone Standard of ppm (Based on Air Quality Data) 63 Counties in Maintenance Areas 208 Counties in 2004 Designated Nonattainment Areas 74 Counties outside of 2004 Designated Nonattainment Areas Notes: of 643 monitored counties with complete data violate the proposed primary 8-hour ozone standard of 0.075ppm. 2. Data was retrieved from the AQS system February 4, 2008

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6 New Ozone NAAQS States in the WESTAR Region Counties with at least one ozone monitor Counties exceeding NAAQS Counties > and < Counties with a NPS ozone monitor NPS monitors exceeding NAAQS NPS monitors > and < 0.075

7 New Ozone Standard: EPA reported available monitoring data in the West State Counties with Monitors Counties violating new Ozone standard AK 1 of 27 0 AZ 7 of 15 4 CA 48 of CO 11 of 64 4 HI 1 of 5 0 ID 2 of 44 1 MT 1 of 56 0 NV 4 of 17 1 NM 6 of 33 0 ND 7 of 53 0 OR 6 of 36 0 SD 2 of 66 0 UT 6 of 29 5 WA 7 of 39 0 WY 2 of 23 0 State Totals 110 of Tribes No data reported No data reported

8 New Ozone Standard: 2006 Population Data in the West State Counties assumed not to have monitors by EPA Counties with monitors included by EPA Counties with monitors violating new Ozone standard included by EPA AK AZ CA CO HI ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY 664, , , , , , , , , ,411 1,749, , ,857 2,620, ,782 5,844 5,478,018 36,132,647 3,754, , ,337 85,314 2,238,406 1,158, ,486 1,951, ,181 2,172,206 3,775,242 58, ,037,753 30,776,394 1,564, , ,777, ,059, State Totals 12,200,667 58,572,792 41,574,669

9 Counties without Ozone Monitors in 2006 ( th highest 8-hour averages at non-urban sites are presented) Anchorage Honolulu

10 Ozone Data from Non-Urban Monitors ( ) (Violations of the new standard are in orange) A violation of the new ozone standard occurs when the 3-year average of the 4 th highest daily maximum 8-hour average exceeds 75ppb.

11 Number of Ozone Violations at Non-Urban Monitors from (Based on the new standard) A violation of the new ozone standard occurs when the 3-year average of the 4 th highest daily maximum 8-hour average exceeds 75ppb.

12 Number of Ozone Exceedances at Non-Urban Monitors (Based on the new standard) An exceedance of the new ozone standard occurs when an 8-hour average ozone concentration exceeds 75 ppb.

13 EPA modeling of counties predicted to violate new Ozone standard by 2020 (does not reflect accurate/representative emissions projections in the West)

14 WRAP 2018 regional modeling - areas predicted to exceed new Ozone standard (1 st highest 8-hour average by grid cell)

15 WRAP 2018 regional modeling - areas predicted to exceed new Ozone standard (2 nd highest 8-hour average by grid cell)

16 WRAP 2018 regional modeling - areas predicted to exceed new Ozone standard (3rd highest 8-hour average by grid cell)

17 WRAP 2018 regional modeling - areas predicted to violate new Ozone standard (4th highest 8-hour average by grid cell [closest to compliance form of Ozone NAAQS] + seasonality)

18 What are (some of) the sources and control issues in the West related to the new Ozone standard? Urban and rural reactivity Transport and formation Public lands with large biogenic emissions, poorly characterized for effects of drought and climate variation Federal and state mobile fuel and tailpipe controls in place by ~2015 Point sources (dominated by EGUs for SOx and NOx) BART by ~2015 Less coal-fired electricity supply due to climate change? 17 million acres of public lands leased in last 5 years for O&G exploration and production Others?

19 Fires and Ozone (urban contributor to urban impacts, direct formation from fire event(s), precursor transport?) Wildfire Agricultural Fire Prescribed Fire Residential Wood Burning

20 EASTERN UTAH 2006 Oil and Gas Production BLM proposed leasing for oil shale development BLM proposed leasing for tar sands development Indian Country Regulatory authority controlled by the Tribes and EPA Oil Shale Leasing Tar Sands Leasing Indian Country