The idea behind ECCO Objectives, methodology and main outcome

Transcription

1 The idea behind ECCO Objectives, methodology and main outcome 2010 IEAGHG INTERNATIONAL CCS SUMMER SCHOOL Longyearbyen, Svalbard August Prepared by Dr. Jana P. Jakobsen, Senior Research Scientist, SINTEF Energy Research Presented by Dr. Mona J. Mølnvik, Chief Scientist, SINTEF Energy Research 1

2 Outline ECCO objectives Framing the problem ECCO strategy Scenario Case Tool ECCO structure Main outcomes 2

3 ECCO - Overall objective The main objective of ECCO is to facilitate robust strategic decision making regarding early and future implementation of CO 2 value chains in the face of uncertainty. ECCO should provide recommendations enabling cost- effective use of CO 2 being produced from zero-emission emission power plants and other industries in Europe by exploring the opportunities and challenges of CO 2 for EOR/EGR in the context of the value chain. 3

4 Framing the problem 1. What are the questions? 2. How can we address these questions? 3. What competence, methodology and tools do we need for that? 4

5 1. What are the questions? Is there enough CO 2 available for EOR? How will investment models affect CCS economics? Will it be commercially interesting to implement CCS for EOR? Will CCS be accepted How the price of oil affects the economics? How to ensure continuous supply of CO 2? How the price of electricity affects the economics? by public? How will offshore CO 2 processing affect CCS? What modification will be needed at the platform? How the price of gas affects the economics? Will the wellhead be overheated? Will CO 2 leakage occur? How the price of CO 2 quota affects the economics? Which parts of the chain are technologically critical? Which parts of the chain are most costly? Will hydrates form? How will CO 2 quality affect the equipment/ operations along the chain? Is there need for governmental engagement? 5

6 2. How can we address these questions? Political and regulatory political focus on CO 2 handling international agreements legal framework public accept CO 2 quota market mechanisms other incentives Governmental engagement investments risks infrastructure Market economy price profiles: oil gas electricity steel CO 2 quota other projects/ investments Business economy investments models discount rates cash flow NPV analysis ownerships risk Technology availability price efficiency Infrastructure/logistics CCS chain design Matching sources and sinks in capacity and time Optimizing the infrastructure Ownership 6

7 2. How can we address these questions? Soft qualitative data Scenarios analysis Political decisions Public acceptance Technology development Energy demand Economic growth semi" data qualitative/ quantitative Case studies Translate Scenario storylines into quantitative parameters for the tool Hard" quantitative data Simulation with the tool Evaluation of NPV Cash flows for a particular CO 2 chain characterized by specific infrastructure design and values of parameters 7

8 3. What competence and methods do we need? Scenario analysis Case studies Techno-economical economical tool Technical proxy models Business economical models for chain components source/transport/sink Optimization routines Risk analysis 8

9 ECCO Strategy 1. Scenario storylines defining the environment 2. Case study defining chain options CO 2 3. Economic analysis profit vs. costs 4. Case study evaluating options & recommendations Electricity it CO 2 CO 2 emissions emissions Power plant Oil/Gas Platform EOR/EGR CO 2 capture CO 2 conditioning CO 2 transport CO 2 injection Gas CAPEX/OPEX 9

10 SP0 Management and co-ordination SP1 ECCO dissemination and training SP2 CCS analysis and recommendations WP 2.1 Envisaging CCS in Europe by 2020 WP 2.2 Formulation of CCS case studies WP 2.3 Strategies for implementation of CO 2 value chains SP3 CO 2 value chain methodology and tool development WP 3.1 CO 2 value chain WP 3.4 Implementation and assessment tool simulation of CCS cases WP 3.2 Global parameters and market models WP 3.3 Techno-economic models for CO 2 chain components ECCO Structure SP4 Reservoir technology for EOR/EGR WP 4.1 Techno-economic strategies for optimal CO 2 injection WP 4.2 EOR/EGR potential ti with CO 2 injection WP 4.3 Integration of aquifers into CO 2 infrastructure 10

11 Scenarios - storylines defining the environment for the case studies Scramble Decision makers focus on the need to secure energy for themselves and allies Bilateral deals and agreements Environmental policy not seriously addressed Uncoordinated incentives Patchwork of local standards and technologies Shell energy scenarios to 2050 Blueprint Formation of coalitions and focus on energy security and sustainability Pro-active actions on climate changes Local communities take first actions but national governments are forced to harmonize the initiatives 11

12 Case studies - Base case Exhaust stream containing 5 Mt CO 2 /year Corresponds to 2x 700 MW GTCC EOR storage basecase J.P.Jakobsen, G.Tangen, Ø.Nordbø, and M.J.Mølnvik, Methodology for CO2 Chain Analysis, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 2 (4), , Global assumptions NG price 0.6 kr/sm^3 Price oil (offshore) 25 USD/bl Aquifer storage basecase Price CO2 quote 10.0 EUR/ton Exchange rate Euro 8.5 NOK/EUR Exchange rates Dollar 6.5 NOK/USD Availability 7885 hr/yr Discount rate 9% 12

13 Case studies - sensitivity analysis 13

14 ECCO: Scenario Tool vision Case Case specific input sources and sinks Tool Flexible CCS chain network design Relatively simple Case specific inputs Transparent cost factors Consistent investment models discount rates Business Technical Quality data economical parameters Smart use parameters and and models models Case specific inputs efficiency capacity energy consumption recovery rate Price profiles or models Market parameters Financial analysis output NPV, cash flow 14

15 Tool functionalities t A. Chain network design B. Technical parameters and models Matching sources and sink in capacity and time C. Market and economical parameters Proxy models Choose level of detail Tampen D. Scotland 3000 km total Rim offshore multiple 250 Market Financial development: analysis (NPV, cash flow) Absorber pipelines 240 km onshore pipeline oil price Electricity gas price Identify: E. Super structures Input steel variables price Vl Volume/mass el. Price of fco 2 Optimization CO 2 quota CO price 2 Parameters Plant Sensitivity analysis capture Capture London Risk analysis efficiency i Energy Decision investments making Holland consumption models Mid England 270 km onshore pipeline CO 2 emissions Ekofisk Business economical: Denmark 400 km onshore pipeline CO Friesland 2 conditioning 280 km onshore pipeline Raw Gas London 0 cost parameters Gas Ruhr area CAPEX/OPEX Optimizing the transport pipeline optimization ship design Treated gas logistic Time profiles Injection possibility, Case 6 Condenser CO for analyzed CO Oil 2 period emissions 150 CO2 captured Gas case 2 CO2 captured case 6 for each CCS chain network module design : CO2 captured case EOR injection possibility 2 (Mton/year) Amount CO CAPEX 50 OPEX CO 2 transport HX CO 2 injection Business economical parameters Technical parameters and models Market Financial Year parameters analysis Flash Desorber EOR/ storage Reboiler 15

16 CO2-quota threshold CO2-quot a price ( / /ton) EOR- basecase Case 1 (Improved amine capture) Case 2 (Oxyfuel) Aquifer - basecase Case 3 (Improved monitoiring) 16

17 Net present value (MN OK) Base case EOR Case 1, Improved amine capture Case 2, Oxyfuel Oil price ($/bl) 17

18 Main results ECCO is focused towards the complete CO 2 value chain, and will generate results and cause progress beyond state of the art within the following topics Methodology for CO 2 value chain assessment by means of establishing scenarios as input for formulation of CCS cases, which are further analysed with the tool. CO 2 value chain assessment tool that enables transparent and robust analysis of CO 2 value chains. The tool will be designed to allow for flexible, demand-driven tailoring Reservoir technology for EOR and EGR increasing the ability to predict EOR and EGR profiles and potentials for CO 2 injection into European oil and gas reservoirs. Strategies and recommendations for deployment of CO 2 value chain: Main report: ECCO Strategies for CO 2 value chain deployment. The report comprises ECCO s joint strategies es and recommendations e o regarding g deployment of the CO 2 infrastructure in the near and mid-term future, liability issues and cross-border regulations, Emission Trading Schemes (ETS), financing schemes, and regime of incentives, and organization of the supply chain. 18

19 Thank you for your attention! com/ 19