The négawatt Approach & Scenario

Transcription

1 The négawatt Approach & Scenario Energy transition through sufficiency, efficiency and renewables Marc JEDLICZKA Association négawatt 21/08/2017 INFORSE/FolkeCenter-DENMARK With support of Fondation Charles Léopold Mayer pour le progrès de l Homme

2 Who is négawatt? Created in 2001 by a team of independent experts and field-practitioners in energy sector Goals : Sustainable energy scenarios and strategies Lobbying at national/regional level R&D, educational & training activities A core of 25 negawatt Companions + 25 ambassadors Over 1200 members Created in 2009 Subsidiary and operational branch of the association 2

3 Why acting on energy? Climate change Fossile and mineral resources depletion Major industrial accidents Local pollution Energy poverty... all are consequences of our energy drunkenness! 3

4 About Climate Change CO 2 emissions if all proven underground stocks of fossil fuels are burnt Billions Tons CO 2 emission until 2050 just for hoping staying under + 2 C (COP 21) 565 Billions Tons Source : CarbonTracker, 2011 Therefore, matching COP21 goals approved by 195 countries means leaving up to 80 % of fossil fuels resources underground! 4

5 World CO2 emissions Billons ton of CO 2 / year Trajectory Trajectoire ,2 to à +5.4 C +5,4 C Trajectory Trajectoire ,9 to à +2.3 C +2,3 C Source Source IPCC GIEC We are at the crossroad! 5

6 02. Some reminders about energy

7 Primary Energy Sources (World) Energy received on Earth from the Sun during one year Gas Petrol Coal Total proven energy resources Uranium Total World consumption (One year) 7

8 A change of paradigm Development based on energy flows (renewables) Development based on energy stocks (fossil fuels and uranium)

9 Our current energy system (France 2015) 1) What is energy used for? Final uses Heat Mobility Specific electricity 9

10 Our current energy system (France 2015) 2) Where does energy we use come from? Primary sources Final uses Fossils Heat Nuclear Mobility Renewables Specific electricity 10

11 Our current energy system (France 2015) 3) From uses to primary resources : the energy carriers Primary sources Final carriers Final uses Fossils Losses and self-consumption Heat Liquid fuels 41% Nuclear Gas 23% Mobility Electricity 23% Renewables Solid fuels 10% Others* 3% Specific electricity * District heating, solar thermal, heat from environment 11

12 négawatt approach & scenario Comprehensive approach Demand and supply Energy balance and overall impacts

13 The négawatt approach Energy demand To start from for services and the way to reduce the need of energy for their satisfaction To minimize the quantity of energy needed for satisfying a given level of services Production To substitute fossil fuels and nuclear power by renewable sources 13

14 Sufficiency : one principle, three levels PRINCIPLE : to reduce the amount of energy needed by prioritizing really useful and well designed energy services 1. Dimensional sufficiency Choosing the right size, dimension and power rate when buying an equipment 2. Smart use sufficiency Adjusting level and duration of use of a given equipment to real needs 3. Collaborative sufficiency Sharing the use of a given equipment among several users 14

15 Sufficiency vs drunkenness? 15

16 Efficiency : one principle, four levels PRINCIPLE : to reduce the consumption of energy necessary for satisfying a given level of energy service 1. Design Efficiency Reducing embedded energy «from cradle to grave» (Eco-Design) 2. Adaptation Efficiency Optimising energy exchanges with the environment (Insulation, re-powering, ) 3. Final use efficiency Improving yields and minimising operating losses 4. Production efficiency Improving energy transformation chains 16

17 Applying the négawatt approach to energy chain Production losses Transport and distribution losses Consumption losses Primary Energy Energy Carriers Final Energy Energy Services Primary Energy SUPPLY DEMAND 17

18 Differentiated approach and responsibilities Sufficiency Message of négawatt during COP21 : Sufficiency is key to: 1. Reach climate objectives of developed countries 2. Send a message on a change of lifestyles to emerging countries 3. Provide solidarity to least developed ones Efficiency Energy access Source : AIE 18

19 From approach to scenario Primary energy Carriers (conversions, transformations) Final energy Energy Services Primary Resources Primary carriers Coal Petrol Natural gas Uranium Renewable electricity. 1 Biomass 2 Others RES 3 RES Nuclear potential phase out (balance by fossils) Primary demand Combustibles Fuels Network gas Electricity Thermal fluids Others Balancing Combustibles Fuels Network gas Electricity Thermal fluids Others Secondary carriers Final demand Business sector Residential Services Transports Industry Agriculture Heat Mobility Power Uses Efficiency Sufficiency OTHER IMPACTS Greenhouse gases Raw materials Air quality Operating costs Investment costs Health SOCIO-ECO ASSEMENT 19

20 Philosophy of the négawatt scenario A scenario for a realistic and sustainable energy transition Hierarchy of options Actions on energy demand, throudh sufficiency and efficiency, first Priority to the use of energies based on flows rather than stocks Technology and economic credibility Relying on proven solutions, innovation as a «Plus» Physically realistic and economically sound Sustainable development as a whole Reducing all risks and impacts of energy uses (not only carbon) A comprehensive (holistic) and clear guideline for action Leaving incomes and benefits to future generations, rather than burdens and debts! 20

21 French energy profile Dependency on fossil fuels remains high (70%) GHG emissions considered 4-fold higher than sustainable: factor 4 introduced in 2005 law (objective: 75% cut by 2050) Strong dependency on nuclear power for electricity (>75%) Low/slow development of renewable energies Oil products France s final energy consumption, share by energy source (2011) Gas Renewables and waste Electricity Coal Nuclear power 18% Fossil 2% Renew. 2% Timidity of energy demand policies 21

22 Contents of the négawatt scenario Sustainable consumption Proper uses of efficient appliances Sustainable goods and service Space management Urban planning Modal transfer in mobility Building stock management Stabilisation of surfaces used Low energy retrofitting of existing Sustainable production Efficient industry processes Sustainable agriculture & forestry Switch of sources The best carrier for each use Development of renewables Electricity resid. & tert. Buildings Transports Industry Agriculture Energy 22

23 Implementation of sufficiency and efficiency More than 50% cut in final energy consumption in each sector by 2050 Allows for sustainable use of bioenergy 23

24 Renewable energy sources development 300 TWh Biomasse Solid biomass solide Eolien Wind Biogaz Biogas Photovoltaïque Photovoltaic Hydraulique Hydro Solaire Thermal thermique solar Chaleur Environment environnement heat Biomasse Liquid biomass liquide Géothermie Geothermy Déchets Waste Energies Marine energies marines

25 Results : final energy by sector of activity TWh 2000 Sufficiency Sobriété TWh -512 TWh Efficiency Efficacité (demand) (demande) Transports TWh -338 TWh 225 TWh Résidentieltertiaire Agriculture Buildings Industrie Industry TWh 341 TWh Tendanciel Trend TWh 387 TWh 183 TWh négawatt Scénario nw 25

26 Results Final energy in main sectors Sufficiency Efficiency Trend scenario négawatt scenario 1000 TWh TWh TWh Buildings Transports Industry Evolution of final energy consumption in the négawatt scenario 26

27 Results Final energy Renewables Fossil + Nuclear négawatt scenario 1000 TWh TWh TWh Buildings Transports Industry Evolution of final energy consumption in the négawatt scenario 27

28 Results: primary energy by source Reducing consumption is key for allowing renewables to come in substitution, not in addition -66% >99% Sufficiency Efficiency (demand) Efficiency (supply) Other renewables Biomass Electric renewables Nuclear Oil Fossil gas Coal négawatt Trend 28

29 Transformation of the system - Year 2015 (start) Primary resources Final carriers Final uses Fossil fuels Primary losses and self-consumption Heat Liquid fuels 41% Nuclear Gas 23% Mobility Electricity 23% Renewables Solid fuels 10% Others* 3% Specific electricity * District heating, thermal solar, heat pumps, 29

30 Transformation of the system - Year 2050 (nw) Primary resources Final carriers Final uses Fossil fuels Primary losses and self-consumption Heat Liquid fuels 4% Gas 33% Mobility Renewables Electricity 31% Solid fuels 16% Others* 16% Specific electricity * Heat grids, thermal solar, heat from environment 30

31 Transformation of the system - Year 2015 (start) 31

32 Transformation of the system - Year 2050 (nw) 32

33 Carbon neutrality by 2050 MteqCO Raw Emission GHG tous emissions GES Carbon Stockage capture forêts et by prairies lands Net Emissions GHG emissions nettes Evolution of raw and net GHG emissions by

34 A clearly positive impact on jobs Nb of jobs total net Nb of jobs in building sector - gross Nb of jobs in renewables gross Nb of jobs in repairing gross Nb of jobs ensuing effect Nb of jobs in advice and info gross Nb of jobs in appliances efficiency gross energy - gross Nb of jobs in non-renewable Nb of jobs in transportation - gross jobs in 2020, in 2030, in 2050 compared to the trend scenario 34

35 Synergy between all players as an unavoidable item Citizens Housing: sufficiency, thermal efficiency, integrated renewables Goods, services, mobility : responsible consumption Local communities Local policies Information and education Public orders Business Sustainable conception of goods Circular economy Innovation, research State / Europe Regulations Incitative tax system Support to R&D 35

36 Going further Two books Scenario synthesis (available in English) Dynamic graphs Videos Press review News To find answers to popular misconception about energy transition 36

37 Thank you for your attention! To make possible what is desirable