THE WATCH LIST GROWTH TRENDS

Transcription

1 2015 Energy Leadership Series INSIGHTS INTO THE FUTURE OF ENERGY: SOLAR INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES THE WATCH LIST GROWTH TRENDS

2 SOLAR STAR I & II INTRODUCTION Continued technological advancements and strong growth are leading most solar industry members to predict a robust future in the U.S. market. To better understand these viewpoints, we gathered feedback from over 200 attendees at the recent Solar Power International (SPI) Conference. Participants represented a broad array of organizations, including: utilities, developers, independent power producers (IPPs), financiers and suppliers. Throughout 2015, we are sharing our findings in four brief installments entitled Insights into the Future of Energy: Solar Industry Perspectives. At Mortenson, we are dedicated to bringing ingenuity, industry knowledge and technical expertise to bear as the industry advances. To that end, we are pleased to share with you the following insights. FOUR-PART SERIES Part 1. The Watch List: Growth Trends Part 2. The Business of Solar: Challenges & Opportunities Part 3. Community Solar: Distributed Generation in Action Part 4. The Big Picture: Solar in Society COVER PHOTO: ALAMO 5 SOLAR CREDIT: SUNPOWER CORPORATION ENERGY LEADERSHIP SERIES 2

3 THE SOLAR INDUSTRY S BRIGHT FUTURE STRONG GROWTH & TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS CONTINUE TO SHINE OPTIMISTIC PERSPECTIVES FOR GROWTH IN Strong... very strong! % UTILITIES 80% DEVELOPERS & IPPs INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH Utilities 79% DISTRIBUTED GENERATION 85% ELECTRICITY STORAGE GRID PARITY EXPECTED & Developers / IPPs predict (very) substantial growth over the next five years. 75% NET METERING 66% SMART GRID TECHNOLOGY What s Next in Energy. SM ENERGY LEADERSHIP SERIES 3

4 BRIGHT OPTIMISM Solar in the US continues to grow at a blistering pace. Expectations are strong for 2015, although utility professionals are somewhat less optimistic than the developers and IPPs. This suggests that the numerous solar projects being planned by developers and IPPs may be chasing a more limited number of utilities looking to expand solar purchases perpetuating the highly competitive environment that exists for new projects. HOW MUCH GROWTH IS YOUR FIRM EXPERIENCING IN SOLAR? GROWTH IN 2014: STRONG VERY STRONG 40% 29% 22% 29% 41% 30% 70% = UTILITIES 58% = DEVELOPERS & IPPs 63% = ALL OTHERS* ANTICIPATED GROWTH IN 2015: STRONG VERY STRONG 33% 33% 48% 33% 66% = UTILITIES 79% = DEVELOPERS & IPPs 73% = ALL OTHERS* 31% 40% *ALL OTHERS: SUPPLIERS, VENDORS, CONSULTANTS AND FINANCIERS WHITE TANK BRANCH LIBRARY AND NATURE CENTER ENERGY LEADERSHIP SERIES 4

5 IMPENDING INFRASTRUCTURE Industry professionals are convinced that significant new infrastructure developments such as storage and net metering will soon become viable and grow giving a boost to solar growth. HOW MUCH GROWTH WILL WE SEE OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS? (Utilities & Developers / IPPs) VERY SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH 31% 30% SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH 50% 58% 35% 35% 29% 27% 85% = ELECTRICITY STORAGE 79% = DISTRIBUTED GENERATION 66% = SMART GRID TECHNOLOGY 65% = NET METERING QUINTO SOLAR ENERGY LEADERSHIP SERIES 5

6 STORAGE GAME-CHANGER Storage allows electricity to be saved for when it is needed, which benefits wind and solar farms. Respondents strongly believe that electricity storage including the massive battery plant being built by Tesla Motor Inc. in Nevada will be a significant game changer, with large-scale storage becoming cost effective within five years. HOW WILL ELECTRICITY STORAGE AFFECT TRENDS? (All respondents*) STRONGLY AGREE AGREE 42% 52% = 9 30% 61% = 91% 25% 56% = 81% *Responses similar across different types of respondents Electricity storage will ultimately be a game changer for the solar industry Tesla s battery plant will meaningfully advance the electricity storage industry Large scale electricity storage will become cost effective within 5 years ENERGY LEADERSHIP SERIES 6

7 POWERING UP BUILDINGS Buildings account for 36% of U.S. energy use, according to the EPA. Many major companies, institutions and government agencies are looking to on-site solar to provide energy for their facilities. Nearly half of professionals believe building-integrated photovoltaics will become mainstream within three to five years. Most also feel it is at least possible that solar shingles and tiles will gain popularity. HOW LIKELY ARE THESE TECHNOLOGIES TO BECOME MAINSTREAM WITHIN FIVE YEARS? (All respondents*) DEFINITELY POSSIBLY NOT LIKELY DEFINITELY NOT 11% 9% 4 47% 6% = Building Integrated PV 3% = Solar 26% 4 23% 7% Shingles 22% 50% 22% = Solar Tiles 6% 31% 47% = PV Paint 11% 22% 47% 22% = Solar Roads = Solar 19% 42% 33% Clothing 6% *Responses similar across different types of respondents CAMP PARKS SOLAR ENERGY LEADERSHIP SERIES 7

8 IMMINENT PARITY WHEN WILL U.S. UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR PROJECTS GAIN PARITY WITH OTHER ENERGY SOURCES? 15% 50% 12% 57% 27% 49% WITHIN 2 YEARS WITHIN 5 YEARS 23% 32% 18% 28% 22% 4 Industry professionals are also optimistic that solar will gain grid parity with other energy sources relatively soon. Even growth in cheap natural gas is not seen as a significant threat to solar growth. Two-thirds of utility and developer / IPP respondents believe solar electricity will achieve grid parity (i.e., the same megawatt costs) within the next five years. Virtually all believe solar will gain parity at some point. Industry cost reduction is driving much of the optimism regarding future trends. The price of utility-scale solar has fallen by more than 70% since 2008, according to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. 19% 12% 19% 8% 8% 12% WITHIN 10 YEARS WITHIN 20 YEARS OVER 20 YEARS NEVER 27% 13% 29% 8% 13% 25% NATURAL GAS COAL WIND NATURAL GAS COAL WIND 1% 7% 2% UTILITIES & DEVELOPERS / IPPs ALL OTHERS ENERGY LEADERSHIP SERIES 8

9 THANK YOU To learn more, please contact one of our Solar and Emerging Renewables leaders. TRENT MOSTAERT Vice President, General Manager DAN BIERE Director of Operations STEVE HANSEN Director of Business Development CRAIG SANDEEN Construction Executive LUKE CARLSON Chief Estimator OLE MUNSON Commercial Solar WHAT S NEXT IN ENERGY SM We sincerely thank the professionals who offered their time to participate in our study. Our aim is to be in lockstep with customers and partners, resulting in a far superior experience that s second to none. Surveys like these are tremendously valued and greatly appreciated. As a leading renewable contractor, Mortenson shares a passion with solar professionals to create a more secure and sustainable energy future. We combine unmatched expertise in energy modeling tools with self-perform capabilities to turn opportunities into bankable solar energy facilities. No matter the obstacles, complexities or constraints, we ll help you make the most out of every opportunity. We welcome the opportunity to share more with you about the Mortenson solar energy expertise, delivery methods and unique capabilities to provide world-class quality, innovation and service to our customers M. A. Mortenson Company. Mortenson is a registered trademark of M. A. Mortenson Company.