Climate and the ecosystem approach to research and management

Transcription

1 Climate and the ecosystem approach to research and management Einar Svendsen with input from many others Nordic Climate Fish Conference, Norway, Solstrand Jan., 2011

2 Our Task: Research for better management advice on AQUACULTURE on THE ECOSYSTEMS of - the Barents Sea - the NorwegianSea - the North Sea -the Norwegian coastal zone -developing countries

3 Scientific challenges New quantitative process understanding of the mechanisms regulating changes in: Recruitment, growth, mortality and migration/distribution of plankton, fish and mammals (incl. climate, fishing, predator-pray interactions, acidification, eutrophication,....). If relevant, this also includes pollutants and its overlap with and effects on biological material Microbial loop?? Scientific information management advice/ risk assessment

4 How? Increased focus on process and effect studies on all scales (molecular to deep ocean) Numerical models describing (parts of) the ecosystem continously in time and 3D space with assimilation af critical observations. Full ecosystem models? Spatially resolved multi species population dynamic models Improved management models Defining and implementing the needs for observations for suitable monitoring new technology Long timeseries New laboratory studies (eg. effects of acidification)

5 Management advice is related to: Predict future development (related to most probable future changes/ stresses ) Answer to what if questions/ scenario (related to possible future stresses or management actions (e.g. reduced fertilization, fish quotas, antibiotic resistance...)) It is most often a matter of estimating the coupled effects of both natural and human pressures Advice is by its nature operational, which for us means to deliver useful information about the marine ecosystem at the right time and in the right format (about the past, now and in the future)

6 Climate-physics Fishing Climate-physics Many processes we must choose and understand the most important

7 Climate

8 Primary production On large (global) scales there is a close relation between production of Fiskefangst organic material at different trophic levels Zooplankton production Fish catches Pinet (2006)

9 Regional-scale climate periods in North Atlantic Anthropogenic change 5 Internannual variability Decadal-scale oscillations Multidecadal-scale oscillations o Temperature [ C] Svein Sundby; Source: PINRO, Murmansk

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12 Observed ocean temperature for Atlantic water in the Barents Sea (PINRO and IMR) and prognoses for the 21. century (Furevik et al. 2003) 6,0 5,5 5,0 Temperatur År 4,5 4,0 3,5? 3,0 2, Temperatur År

13 Why modeling? Due to the dynamics and complexity of the marine ecosystems, and the challenge to determine the interaction between large natural variability and the impact from man, this is only possible by extensive use of mathematical models in combination with observations.

14 Observations (from ships satellites and buoys) are crucial for validation of and assimilation into the models Marine monitoring Standard sections - regional surveys models

15 The ARGO program Can we add some simple acoustics to also measure plankton in the upper 2000 m??

16 Some postulations No such thing as an ecological balance on these time-scales. Knowledge of the ecosystem dynamics is required to make proper evaluation and prediction of the combined impact of climate and fishing on a marine food web Due to the complexity of this challenge, it can only be explored by laboratory experiments and extensive use of mathematical models in combination with observations Maybe the acidification is the largest threat??

17 Acidification of the ocean

18 Products and needs We deliver: Abundance estimates of fish species (quite good once a year) Climate status when needed A bit on primary production Must prioritize secondary production linked to growth and survival of fish larvae and fish migration Pollution-desieses survival But what we want the most is to quantify and predict: Recruitment, growth, mortality and distribution Since we (mathematically) do not know all the processes leading up to these states/processes, we need to make statistically shortcuts between smart modelled and observed INDICATORS and the desired info on recruitment, growth, mortality and distribution. NB! Overlap between pray and predators (or pollution) determines natural mortality

19 IMR Paul Budgell & ROMS

20 Circulation and temperature at 50 m depth (50 year global simulations) Winter 1995 average, high NAO Winter 1996 average, low NAO Paul Budgell, Bjørn Ådlandsvik, Vidar Lien

21 Primary production Yearly average primary production, Svendsen et al Skogen et al. submitted ICES JMS

22 Biophysical (NORWECOM) processes state variables Primary production Respiration Algae death Regeneration Self shading Turbidity Sedimentation Resuspension Denitrification Diatoms, flagellates (chatonella) Detritus (N and P) and diatom skeletals (Si) Inorganic nitrogen, phosphorus, silicate Oxygen Light model

23 North Sea primary production Run: North Sea+POM , 10km res Morten Skogen, Solfrid Hjøllo, Einar Svendsen Prim.production, nutrients, sedimentation, oxygen, current, hydrography.. Monthly means, daily/2.daily values field+ sections Mean modelled annual NorthSea primary production ( ) (gc/m 2 /year)

24 N/P eutrophication assessment (2) Run1 (reference) Run2 (N+P reduction) Run3 (P reduction)

25 Harmful algae blooming 2001

26 Harmful algae blooming, 2001

27 ICES Annual Science Conference. Nantes, France, September 2010 Paper L:09 Modeling secondary production in the Norwegian Sea with a fully coupled model system Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo, Geir Huse and Morten Skogen Institute og Marine Research, Norway

28 From Skjoldal et al Need: an integrated system of models that describe the ecosystem function with focus on processes of importance to harvestable stocks

29 Coupled model system Predator field C. FINMARCHICUS IBM OCEAN MODEL PHYTO- PLANKTON MODEL NORWECOM Phytoplankton distribution 3D field of current, temperature, turbulence

30 Prognostic variables: Primary production (diatoms, flagellates), nutrients (inorganic nitrogen, phosphorus, silicate), oxygen, detrituis, biogenic silicia, light in water column, suspended matter NORWECOM O 2 NIT OXY DIA PHO FLA OXY SIL SiS SIL NIT DETN DETP PHO OXY Stress OXY Stress SIL SiS NIT DETN DETP PHO DETN N 2 DETP BURIED Skogen et al (2007) Skogen & Søiland (1998),

31 Individual-based model (IBM) Calanusmodel Structural weight Fat content 3D Position From Huse et al (in prep) Depth Stage Individual number WUD VM 1 W + VM 2 OWD AFD if C5 before AFD => mature else allocate to fat if fat/soma > FSR descend to OWD.. Feeding: functional response, type 2 (Campbell 2001) Growth: bioenergetics (Carlotti & Wolf 1998) Reproduction: mature adults above weight and fat thresholds, in mixed layer Vertical movement: dvm, annual cycle Horizontal movement: by currents Time

32 Distribution of copepodites after 100 years of spin up time Results

33 NORWECOM.E2E future plans Predator field Herring, blue whiting, mackerel Predator field C. Finmarchicus C. Glacialis C. Hypoboreus Mesopelagic fish and Gonatus Marine mammals Fish larvea... OCEAN MODEL PHYTOPLANKTON MODEL NORWECOM C. Helgolandicus Krill Zooplankton distribution ROMS Phytoplankton distribution 3D field of current, temperature, turbulence

34 NORWECOM.E2E future plans Predator field Herring, blue whiting, mackerel Predator field C. Finmarchicus C. Glacialis C. Hypoboreus Mesopelagic fish and Gonatus Marine mammals Fish larvea... OCEAN MODEL PHYTOPLANKTON MODEL NORWECOM C. Helgolandicus Krill Zooplankton distribution ROMS Phytoplankton distribution 3D field of current, temperature, turbulence

35 Pelagisk fisk

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37 T odays larval distribution

38 Cod (3Y) recruitment prediction (2-3 Y) Recruitment (million) Years (when 3Y)

39 Conclusions / actions The marine ecosystem research community must prepare to take advantage of the operational oceanography products. We must define our needs being more than regular ocean weather forecasts. Realistic (operational and long term) zoo-plankton fields Couple larvae models to zooplankton fields, operationally and long term simulations recruitment Improve and run fish migration models to explain the dynamics in natural mortality and growth. Improve the usefulness towards improved management Simulate possible ecosystem effects of the future potential climate change (scenario)

40 Total ice cover in the Arctic ROMS

41 Sea ice area (Arctic ROOS)

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43 Observed ocean temperature for Atlantic water in the Barents Sea (PINRO and IMR) and prognoses for the 21. century (Furevik et al. 2003) 6,0 5,5 5,0 Temperatur År 4,5 4,0 3,5? 3,0 2, Temperatur År

44 Concluding questions What should the observing strategy be to satisfy the needs of ecological research and monitoring as input to sustainable ecosystem management? Will we always be severely under-sampled? or can we fix it with new technology? Do we have the right models and the critical input data to predict (early warning) changes in recruitment, growth, mortality and distribution?

45 Climate