The Science of Climate Change and Fisheries

Transcription

1 The Science of Climate Change and Fisheries Excerpts from the ICES/PICES/IOC Symposium, April 2010, Sendai, Japan Adi Kellermann, Head of Science International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)

2 The Sendai symposium: scope and volume Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries: Forecasting impacts, assessing ecosystem responses, and evaluating management strategies more than 300 participants from 36 countries six workshops 210 oral presentations in 10 sessions 115 posters

3 The Sendai symposium: theme and sessions Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries: Forecasting impacts, assessing ecosystem responses, and evaluating management strategies Forecasting impacts: from climate to fish, from fish to markets Sustainable strategies in a warming climate Downscaling variables from global models Species-specific responses, ecosystem responses Geographical gradients of responses (near-shore, shelf, oceanic; latitudinal) Impacts on coastal communities and evaluating human responses Contemporary and next generation models, advance and approaches

4 The Sendai symposium: theme and sessions Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries: Forecasting impacts, assessing ecosystem responses, and evaluating management strategies Forecasting impacts: from climate to fish, from fish to markets Sustainable strategies in a warming climate Downscaling variables from global models Species-specific responses, ecosystem responses Geographical gradients of responses (near-shore, shelf, oceanic; latitudinal) Impacts on coastal communities and evaluating human responses Contemporary and next generation models, advance and approaches

5 Environment is Changing Rapidly IPCC (2007) anticipated increase of 1.1 o C to 6.4 o C by 2100

6 2010

7 Even without factoring in climate change fisheries are in trouble Bluefin tuna in the Atlantic Lingcod in British Columbia From and Martell (1999)

8 What are the climate change impacts? Productivity and distribution of fish biomass in the global ocean will be affected: Shifts in distributional ranges of marine species; Changes in ocean primary productivity; Shifts in timing of peak abundance and migration of biological communities; Mortalities and physiological stress by expansion of oxygen minimum zones and hypoxia areas; Ocean acidification, which affects calcification, other physiological processes and growth of marine species. 2010

9 Impact of climate change on fisheries Climate change will impact human welfare: Catches; Food security; Catch (landed) values; Cost of fishing; Profits to fishing companies; Income to fishers; Economic rent to resource owners; The distribution of benefits to different countries, regions and groups. 2010

10 Modified from Cheung et 2010 Plankton productivity and community structure Forecasting impacts: physics to fish, ecosystems Physiology Metabolism tolerance Life history (body size: mortality, maturity; growth) Productivity, degradation Ocean conditions Temperature Oxygen Acidity Advection Recruitment Adult Juvenile Population dynamics Species distribution Habitat suitability

11 How has climate change impacted marine food-webs in the past, and how might we predict changes in the future? John K. Pinnegar, Georg Engelhard, Julia Blanchard, Joe Scutt-Phillips, William Cheung International Symposium: Climate Change Effects on Fish & Fisheries, Sendai, Japan. Session A2 Monday 26th April, 2010

12 Latitude The North Sea Ecosystem: Pinnegar et al., Sendai 2010 Water Depth (m) ICES Stock-Assessment Areas E6 E7 E8 E9 F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F Longitude The North Sea is a semi-enclosed basin with a depth ranging from 30m 200m The ecosystem is dominated by soft-bottom habitats (sand, mud, gravel) The north Sea harbours a wide range of fish stocks exploited mainly by: France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, England, Scotland, Denmark.

13 There have been big changes in sea surface temperature (SST) Note the generally close correlation between time series & the overall warming trend during the 20 th Century Marsdiep SST Dover SST Pinnegar et al., Sendai Central England Air Torungen SST HADISST North Sea Helgoland SST Warm period in 1930s Cool period in the early 1970s Dramatic warming after 1988/89 12 ºC

14 Thermal performance Changes in fish distribution (across Europe) Pinnegar et al., Sendai 2010 Plaice Flounder Cod Seabass From Freitas et al. (2007) Temperature is one of the primary factors, together with food availability and suitable spawning grounds that determine the large-scale distribution patterns of fish. Because most fish species prefer a specific temperature range, an expansion or contraction of the distribution range often coincides with long-term changes in temperature and/or climate. The recent warming trend in the northeast Atlantic has coincided with an apparent northward shift in the distribution of fish species from southerly latitudes

15 However there have also been big changes fishing pressure.. Fishing mortality rates have been higher in the southern North Sea than in the north (Heath et al., 2003, Heath et al., 2007). Apparent changes in distribution (as indicated by Perry et al. 2005) could simply be a consequence of local patterns of fishing pressure and different rates of depletion in spatially segregated sub-stocks. Pinnegar et al., Sendai 2010 (MEFEPO)

16 What will distribution shifts mean for fisheries? Populations may move away from (or towards) the area where fishing fleets operate. Distribution changes may have significant consequences for the distance that must be travelled by fishing boats to reach the target resources with implications for fuel usage and time at sea. Also species distributions may migrate across the boundaries where quotas belong to different nations. Species may move outside the boundaries of marine protected areas / fishery closure areas Incoming species may be commercially exploitable and therefore offer new opportunities for fisheries. Pinnegar et al., Sendai 2010

17 Climate change, fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific: Implications for food security, livelihoods & economic growth Johann Bell

18 Roles of fisheries and aquaculture Food security Livelihoods Economic growth and government revenue Johann Bell, Sendai 2010

19 Food security Per capita fish consumption - rural (kg) Animal protein Subsistence fishing Examples only Range x-y Johann Bell, Sendai 2010

20 Economic contributions Government revenue GDP Examples only Range x-y Johann Bell, Sendai 2010

21 Livelihoods Johann Bell, Sendai 2010 Coastal households selling fish () Examples only Range x-y Examples only Regional average 1 st and 2 nd income = 47

22 Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Communities: The Case of the north coast of java small-pelagic fisheries Akhmad Fauzi Bogor Agricultural University (IPB) Subandono Diposaptono Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, Republic of Indonesia Suzy Anna Padjadjaran University, Bandung Indonesia

23 cm) Elevasi (cm) Elevasi (cm) Biak Batam Kupang Sorong 300 SEA LEVEL RISE 280 IN INDONESIA Biak Batam Kupang Sorong PACIFIC OCEAN Tahun INDIAN OCEAN Jakarta Tanjung Priok Semarang Tahun Bali 2004 Sea Level is rising around Indonesia at 6-8 mm/year 23 Source: Diposaptono,2009

24 Axis Title Gear Productivity (ton/vessel) Impacts of climate variability on small-scale fisheries Productivity declines on average around 80 Unit rent (proxy for gross incomes) declines from US$ 3000 to US$ 2000 per gear per year Per capita income declines between US$ 1.4 and US$ 0.6 per capita per day In 2005 rising fuel price adds to double jeopardy of poverty Fishing Productivity Payang drift gillnet 5.00 Set gillnet Axis Title Unit rent (US$) per year 3, , , , , ,

25 What if uncertainties due to climate variability persist? Stay as fishers no matter what Choice if uncertainties persist Fishermen is the employment of the last resort 17 0 change profession Fishing is life style preference stay as fishermen don't know Reluctant to move out 83 Develop strategies to deal with uncertainties

26 Summary (1/2) Climate Change impacts on marine ecosystems, including fisheries, now a major area of research, particular advancements in the area of Earth System modeling, in linking climate, ecosystems and socio-economics; however, the global view of climate impacts on fish and fisheries is patchy and still emerging Validating higher trophic level outputs, and social, economic and behavioral mechanisms is still difficult, given the limited amount of comparable data Shelf models are starting to be developed, but there are technical issues to be resolved on the boundary conditions between shelf models and global models, particularly in continental shelves and upwelling areas (where fishery productivity is greatest) Climate, fishing, nutrient enrichment, habitat loss, toxics and other humandriven issues are confounded by additive to multiplicative factors. Understanding their relative knock-on impacts is of interest to society

27 Summary (2/2) The latitudinal response to climate change (by both species and ecosystems) is inverse to the adaptive capacity of societies- access to science and adaptation resources must be facilitated so as to contribute to environmental justice issues Impacts to fishing sector in developing countries may be 2-3 times higher than in developed countries, requiring a higher adaptation costs than developed countries under all the scenarios considered; Thank you for listening!