Acting on ocean acidification: getting ahead of the curve

Transcription

1 Second meeting of the Ocean Acidification international Reference User Group (OA-iRUG) Undertaken in partnership with Oceanographic Institute Foundation Albert I, the Ocean Acidification International Coordination Center (OA-ICC), the Association Monégasque sur l Acidification des Océans (AMAO), the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON), IUCN, the XPRIZE, and with financial support from Fondation Prince Albert II de Monaco Acting on ocean acidification: getting ahead of the curve 1. Meeting location Oceanographic Museum, Principality of Monaco January Accommodation details Novotel Monte Carlo, 16 Boulevard Princesse Charlotte, Monaco. Phone: Reserve your room by contacting the OA-iRUG for preferred rate and to make booking.

2 Confirmed participants 1. Dan Laffoley 2. John Baxter 3. Jason Hall-Spencer 4. David Santillo 5. Dorothée Herr 6. Jim Orr 7. Madelyn Appelbaum 8. Jelle Bijma 9. Richard Feely 10. Libby Jewett 11. Bill Dewey 12. Phil Williamson 13. Jean-Pierre Gatusso 14. Jen Howard 15. Carol Turley 16. John Pinnegar 17. Jan Newton 18. Paul Bunje 19. Peter Kershaw 20. Yan Yang 21. Patrizia Ziveri 22. Brad Warren 23. Wendy Broadgate 24. Marion Gehlen 25. Denis Allemand 26. Sarah Cooley 27. Kirsten Isensee 28. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg 29. Alexandre Magnan 30. Maike Nicolai 31. David Osborne 32. Rodrigo Torres 33. Samantha Siedlecki 34. Sam Dupont 35. Jeremy Blackford 36. Carl Lundin 37. Olga Anghelici 38. Lina Hansson 39. Nathamli Hilmi 40. Paul Holthus 41. Kolbeinn Árnason 42. Stéphanie Reynaud 43. Didier Zoccola 44. Christine Pagès (Friday only) 45. Olivier Dufourneaud 2

3 Important notes To reduce paper usage please bring any hard copies of the meeting papers that you require we will not be providing hard copies at the venue Dress code is business attire for protocol, please stand when HSH Prince Albert arrives Wifi will be available in the meeting room log on to Oceano Museum and the connection will be made after accepting terms and conditions For those who have travel support please keep all receipts and take the most economic route from Nice Airport to Monaco on arrival (see Annex 1) ALL speakers are asked to keep within their allotted time and provide presentations in advance! IF IT IS RAINING you can easily catch bus (Nr. 2) to the Museum by going to the bus stop down the road to the right as you exit the hotel. Bus nr. 1 can be taken from the Monte-Carlo Casino stop, it also goes to the museum. Likewise at the end of the day buses run from just near the museum back up to near the hotel. 3. Background Within the last decade ocean acidification has emerged as a major global environmental challenge. With global oceanographic measurements already showing declines in ocean ph it is clear that ocean acidification ranks as one of the important challenges for future generations. Progressive changes are now taking place in the global ocean resulting from ocean acidification that will be difficult to reverse within our lifetimes. Where ocean acidification has already impacted society, it was often not ready or aware of the risks and ill prepared to cope with the consequences. Vulnerable areas span the globe and range from upwelling areas, sub-polar regions, as well as areas already subject to other significant ocean stressors such as ocean warming. The logic in holding this workshop now is that it is quite clear countries of the world will struggle to reduce anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions to limit surface temperature rises within 2 O C, let alone the much deeper cuts in emissions needed to make a dent in progressive ocean acidification. In light of this problem and because ocean acidification is now progressive with possibly little likelihood of being slowed or reversed, it is time to put in place the mechanisms to help vulnerable communities anticipate and prepare for ocean acidification. It is planned that this workshop will be a leading contribution to developing that approach. 4. Context The January RUG meeting forms part of a series of meetings in the run up to COP 21 in Paris in December 2015, and helps set the frame for the post 2015 agenda. Already in preparation is the Monaco Ocean Acidification Action Plan which will be released in 2015 along with the report of the second workshop on ocean acidification and socio-economics, and outputs from the IDDRI-led Oceans 2015 initiative. The likely schedule leading up to Paris is: January: Monaco economics meeting January: 2 nd OA-iRUG meeting Monaco March: INDCs released (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) April: second IDDRI Ocean 2015 meeting Monaco 8 June (?): ocean day Paris 3

4 6-7 July: 3 rd OA-iRUG meeting Paris 8-10 July: Scientific meeting Our Common Future Paris 30 Nov-11 Dec: UNFCCC COP21 Paris 5. Workshop objectives The second meeting of the Ocean Acidification international Reference User Group will explore a 10 year goal to develop an ocean acidification forecasting system. The reference to getting ahead of the curve is to use the opportunity of the RUG meeting to develop a forward plan for what society will need in a decade in order to anticipate, plan and cope with the increasing acidification of the ocean. The need for this workshop and how the RUG can facilitate bringing about this discussion and assisting the communication of the results came out of the meeting of the SIOA working group in summer 2014 at Villefrenche-sur-mer. Since then soundings have been taken on this idea with a wider group of relevant experts and this has led to this detailed plan. It is important in this context to be reminded of the role and composition of key groups that would need to be involved in this workshop topic and this is provided in annex 2. From these discussions the forecasting needs would need to provide a broad perspective and also focus on the most vulnerable areas of the world ocean, just in the same way as forecasting coral bleaching or El Nino events provides essential information to affected parties. The discussions at the workshop will focus on what we want to know which underlies the development of clear objectives for forecast models. By having modellers in the room the intent is to match these discussions to the temporal and spatial resolution scales needed in models. Alongside this other discussions need to build on current work to tie in the biological impacts related to proposed forecasts, assuming that not all responses will be uniform across systems. This is based on the belief that just having perspectives on the geochemistry won t resonate with people unless it can be translated in some way into marine ecological and human impacts. The objective therefore through workshop sessions are to determine: What is feasible to achieve by way of forecasting over the next 5 years, 10 years, etc.? What we can already do on current resources? What do we ideally need to do? (see conceptual framework in next section) What additional resources are needed to fund the ideal plan? and What new capacity is needed in the community to be able to do it? It is important to note that the role of the RUG meeting is to facilitate this interaction and support the ocean acidification community in the communications around this issue. It is not to duplicate but add a key forum to the scientific deliberations and development work around the observing network. It is anticipated that through the presence of carefully selected experts the RUG meeting will help gather thinking on current initiatives that are observing ocean acidification impacts, as well as promoting thinking beyond the current observing network and providing the material for a 2015 RUG guide to communicate and provide leadership for such an approach. The workshop will run back-to-back with the socio-economic workshop thus enabling RUG participants to start their deliberations fully informed by the key outcomes from this related Monaco-based event. 6. Five-step conceptual forecasting framework Set against the workshop objectives the purpose of the five-step conceptual framework provided below is to guide thinking from current capabilities through to the ultimate nature of the ocean 4

5 acidification forecasting system that will be needed by countries, regions and the global community in the coming decades. Whilst work is already underway on global ocean observing and modelling systems and in some specific regions, future demand is likely to be focussed firmly on the global and regional picture and location specific forecasting capabilities related to highest risks areas, driven by predicted or actual impacts being felt. Creating a costed strategy towards implementing such a forecasting system plays strongly into the solution-based agenda for the UNFCCC COP21 at Paris in December Should we find that such an approach is only partially possible such advice will be important for the Paris COP. Significant challenges include the fact that forecasting of the shelf-sea and coastal carbonate chemistry system requires linkage of high resolution, whole-ecosystem models to long-range weather forecasting (affecting river flows, winds and temperature) and some land-use parameters within relevant river basins (affecting nutrient run-off). Set out below are 5 steps towards an OA forecasting system if implemented each step brings greater accuracy and confidence moving from providing a future projection of nearly immediate ocean physical and chemistry observations (which is valuable but says little about what such changes mean to coastal communities), through to true forecasting systems linked to biological responses, and, ultimately, forecasting focused on implication for socio-economic values up to 1 year ahead, set within a longer-term (perhaps decadal) perspective. The target set for completing the five steps is one decade so the OA-iRUG workshop will assess needs, capabilities and costs to move through the steps and a timetables to do so. It is expected that this will require extremely significant funding and the third RUG meeting in Paris in July 2015 will add detail to the additional science programmes required. All aspects will be fed into the Paris COP meeting. Step 1. Very basic piecemeal projections of physical and chemical parameters, (e.g. rate of shoaling of corrosive waters), focused on the whole ocean basins as well identification and details for all vulnerable regions (which will need defining at the RUG meeting). Step 2. More comprehensive forecasting system in place for vulnerable regions supported by a political blue alliance of nations with observational frameworks complete, but still incomplete understanding of biological and socio-economic impacts from ocean acidification overall. Step 3. Vulnerable region-specific models piloted to enable prediction of impacts with other drivers, and scientific research and observational modelling programmes in place to link biological responses and implications for regional socio-economic values. Step 4. Operational models in place for all known vulnerable regions, supported by near real time high resolution observational data, enabling forecasting of impacts 6 months out and incorporating some degree of likely biological and socio-economic consequences. Step 5. Fully operational, government supported real-time region-specific forecasting systems in place to allow annual predictions of impacts on biological and economic interests, set within a longer term (perhaps decadal) perspective on where the most/least vulnerable areas within the regional seascape might be. In preparation for the RUG meeting observations are welcome on the above five step framework. 7. Anticipated products and actions arising from the meeting The following products and actions are anticipated from this workshop: 5

6 A 2015 RUG guide aimed for UNFCCC COP 21 on the need to develop an ocean acidification forecasting system and what this may involve Ocean acidification getting ahead of the curve. A platform for HSH Prince Albert and other world leaders - through the establishment a blue alliance of such representatives representing concerned and vulnerable countries, at UNFCCC COP 21, and at other global policy fora. This is in order to directly challenge the world community to not just adequately reduce carbon dioxide emissions but to proactively understand the consequences of ocean acidification and climate impacts (such as rising sea levels) for society and plan accordingly. A platform for HSH Prince Albert and other world leaders to determine in light of the RUG meeting what actions can be readily taken to develop the forecasting system. Prioritisation of the science and modelling needed to underpin the development of an ocean acidification forecasting system. A better understanding of the post prize market preparedness and communication required around the ocean acidification XPRIZE in order to maximise the contributions of the new sensor systems to the global ocean acidification observing network and ocean acidification forecasting. 8. Proposed agenda: Tuesday 13th January Arrivals day for those participants not attending the socio-economics meeting Wednesday 14th January RUG members arrive at Oceanographic Museum at am and sit in on general conclusions session for the socio-economics workshop 11:00-11:20 Coffee-break (20 min) 11:20-13:00 General conclusions. Chair: David Osborn Conclusions of the break-out sessions: Summaries of the discussions by the chairs (15 min + 5 min discussion for each group). 13:00-14:30: Lunch RUG and socio-economic participants 14:30-15:00 Welcoming of the invitees. 15:00-16:00 Recommendations to Policy-makers. - Conclusions of the Workshop (CSM and IAEA Directors) - Presentation by AIEA DG - From Socio-economic Workshop to OAIRUG (Dan Laffoley) 6

7 - Presentation by government representatives - Address by H.S.H. Prince Albert II 16:00: Press time (journalists) 16:15: Refreshments 17:00 End of the workshop 17: Ocean 2015 catch-up (see Alexandre Magnan alexandre.magnan@iddri.org) 1900 Self-forming communications group meet to develop a strategy through 2015 into 2016, including content and positioning of Op-Eds etc Free evening for others, or time for other groups to meet Thursday 15th January Arrival at Oceanographic Museum Welcome and introduction to meeting agenda, v brief self-introductions Session 1 Why do we need a forecasting system? - Chair: Dan Laffoley/John Baxter Break Panel presentation with 5 min presentations - Dan, Dick, Libby, Jan. Talk 1. Global Scale changes in ocean acidification: What do we know now and what do we need to know? Possible speakers: Jim Orr (15 mins) Plenary Discussion: How can models be used to address global-scale policy issues? Session 2: What should we focus on? What would a short-term, and medium/long term forecast focus on? Chair: Phil Williamson Talk 2. Forecast Models: How good are they and how can we validate them? Possible speaker: Samantha Siedlecki (15 mins) Talk 3. "Recent advances and future developments for forecasting marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems from regional to global scale?" speaker: Marion Gehlen (30 mins) Plenary Discussion: How can models be used to address regional-scale policy issues? What should be the near-term and long-term goals for the validation and evaluation of forecast models? David Osborne lead discussant Lunch in roof restaurant 7

8 Session 3: How do we link biogeochemical forecasts models to biological impacts? Chair - Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (confirmed) Break Talk 4. Being WAY ahead of the game. Vulnerabilities - where will organisms be most at risk and what to do? - based on what we understand from experimental work. Possible speakers: Sam Dupont and/or Sarah Cooley (15 mins) Talk 5. Food web and ecosystem models. Can we mechanistically link the forecasts to be JUST ahead of the game i.e. how food webs may change location in the future and how that might affect fisheries resources and stocks? Possible speaker: Jeremy Blackford (15 mins) Plenary discussion Session 4 - Plenary concluding discussion for day 1: What do stakeholders want to know? Chair: David Osborne Panel discussion including Brad Warren, Bill Dewey, Jen Howard, and Kolbeinn Árnason 1730 Depart Museum for hotel 1730 AMAO meeting at Maritime Museum (by invitation members only) OA-iRUG reception at Novotel in partnership and sponsored by the XPRIZE Friday 16th January Arrival at Oceanographic Museum Session 5. What regions of the world would we focus on and why? What would the priorities be? Would we have pilot areas and if so where? Chair: Carol Turley Break Panel including Libby Jewett, Richard Feely, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and Rodrigo Torres (5 mins each) Plenary discussion Session 6. Who should be involved? How can we maximize contributions e.g. XPRIZE etc.? Chair: Libby Jewett Panel including Paul Bunje, Bill Dewey, David Santillo, and Dorothée Herr (5 mins each) Plenary discussion Lunch in roof restaurant 8

9 Session 7. What do we need to make this happen? What are the components needed / tool kit for ocean acidification forecasting? What workshops need to happen right away to take modelling forward? How much $ do we need? Chair: Dan Laffoley/John Baxter Break Plenary discussion Session 8. What are the next steps leading to an action plan for implementation? Chair: Dan Laffoley/John Baxter Final plenary discussion 1730 Depart Museum for hotel 1930 Depart hotel for official OAiRUG dinner at Le Saint Benoit restaurant 2000 Dinner - Le Saint Benoit 10 ter, avenue de la Costa Monaco Tél : Fax : (includes a Google map) Saturday 17th January Departures 9

10 Annex 1. Transport to and from Nice airport (information given will be checked and updated as needed in December 2014) Nice Airport to Monaco: You can take the Bus Nice Airport Xpress, N 110 (timetable enclosed) from platform 2 at both Terminals (Please note that the Nice Côte d Azur International Airport (NCE) is divided into terminals (Terminals 1 and 2). A free shuttle service links the two terminals together.) Bus from Nice Côte d Azur International Airport (NCE) to Monaco Direct shuttle by highway between Nice Côte d Azur International Airport (NCE) and Monaco, provided by NICE AIRPORT XPRESS. Departure every 30 minutes, 20 per passenger, 30 for the round trip Four stops in Monaco: 1. Monaco Place d Armes 2. Monaco Fontvieille 3. Monaco Casino (closest stop to the Novotel, about a 10 min walk) 4. Monte-Carlo Bay Hotel Please note that the bus passes in front the Novotel, in order to get off near the hotel, kindly should inform the driver beforehand. Timetable at: Web site: If your flight arrives late, you can take the night bus (only from Thursday to Saturday): Night Bus service between Monaco and Nice Côte d Azur International Airport (NCE) From Thursday to Saturday (except holidays), the route NocTAM bus 100 provides 4 return trips from 10:00 pm to 5:15 am. Tel: The link for the Noctambus-100 (Night bus) timetable is at: Website: (in French) Nice Airport Terminal 1* 10:00 pm 11:30 pm 01:00 am 02:30 am Monaco 10:40 pm 00:10 am 01:40 am 03:10 am Monaco 11:42 pm 01:12 am 02:42 am 04:12 am 10

11 Nice Airport Terminal 1* 00:30 am 02:00 am 03:30 am 05:00 am *Terminal 2: accessible from Terminal 1, a 10 minute walk at night, during the day there is a free shuttle between the 2 terminals. Bus + train Bus 99 to the central train station in Nice, then train to Monaco (every 30 min or so, see attached time table). Upper exit in Monaco is only 200m from the Novotel (on the same street: Boulevard Princesse Charlotte). Monaco train station has many exists, to find the right one: from the platform please take the escalators going up one level, the take to your left. Follow Sortie Monte Carlo (see attached map). You will need to take a lift, then another escalator before exiting Boulevard Princesse Charlotte. Walk + train For a map on getting between Nice airport and Nice St. Augustin (train station), go to this site: then click on the link next to "10mn walk" Trains from St Augustin to Monaco run every 30 min or every hour, I attach a timetable. Note: If you are coming into Terminal 2, then you will need to take the Bus from Terminal 2 to Terminal 1 before starting the walk (about a 5-minute ride but sometimes a 10-minute wait beforehand to catch the bus). 11

12 Annex 2. Further details on main partners The Ocean Acidification international Reference User Group (OA-iRUG). It was launched as part of the European Project on Ocean Acidification (EPOCA) in 2008 as a key means of conveying the scientific results coming out of the project to non-scientific audiences and science end-users, in particular policy and decision makers. The concept is simple but efficient: bringing together scientists and stakeholders from various backgrounds such as industry, governmental and non-governmental organizations, to allow networking and the presentation of key findings to interested non-scientific parties. The RUG helped EPOCA scientists to reach out to a different audience through a series of briefings and guides available in multiple languages, disseminated widely, and brought to international policy fora such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP). RUG members also fed back the findings of the project to their parent organisations. In 2010 the EPOCA RUG evolved to support and be supported by the three other main projects on ocean acidification at the time: the German project BIOlogical Impacts of Ocean ACIDification (BIOACID), the UK Ocean Acidification Research Programme (UKOA) and the European Union project Mediterranean Sea Acidification in a Changing Climate (MedSeA). In 2013, the work of the group could be brought to a true international dimension thanks to the generous support of the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, and the Ocean Acidification international Reference User Group (OA-iRUG) was launched. The OA-iRUG, chaired by Professor Dan Laffoley (IUCN), is working with current projects and with the OA-ICC to examine in detail the types of data, analyses and products that are most useful to managers, policy advisers, decision makers and politicians and ensure an appropriate format and distribution vehicles. The Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON). This is a collaborative international approach to document the status and progress of ocean acidification in open-ocean, coastal, and estuarine environments, to understand the drivers and impacts of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems, and to provide spatially and temporally resolved biogeochemical data necessary to optimize modelling for ocean acidification. GOA-ON high-level goals: Goal 1 - Improve our understanding of global OA conditions: Determine status and spatial / temporal patterns in carbon chemistry, assessing the generality of response to ocean acidification. Document and evaluate variation in carbon chemistry to infer mechanisms (including biological) driving ocean acidification. Quantify rates of change, trends, and identify areas of heightened vulnerability or resilience. 12

13 Goal 2 - Improve our understanding of ecosystem response to OA: Track biological responses in concert with physical/chemical changes. Quantify rates of change and identify locations and species of heightened vulnerability or resilience. Goal 3 - Acquire and exchange data and knowledge necessary to optimize modeling for OA and its impacts: Provide spatially and temporally resolved biogeochemical data for use in parameterizing and validating models. A nested approach. The three high-level goals for each geographic environment will be realized using a nested approach differentiating between: critical minimum measurements (Level 1); enhanced measurements to further the understanding of primary mechanisms (Level 2); and opportunistic or experimental measurements (Level 3). International Coordination Centre (ICC). During the past few years several multinational and national research projects on ocean acidification have emerged, significantly advancing the knowledge in this domain. The establishment of an international coordination platform was suggested by the SOLAS-IMBER Ocean Acidification Working Group (SIOA WG) and the international Ocean Acidification Reference User Group (ioa-rug). In response to this recommendation and concerns expressed by Member States, the IAEA announced at the Rio+20 UN Conference on Sustainable Development the launch of the Ocean Acidification International Coordination Centre (OA-ICC), operated by its Environment Laboratories in Monaco starting from July The project works to communicate, promote and facilitate a series of over-arching activities in science, capacity building and communication intended to serve the scientific community, policy makers, the general public, media and other stakeholders. The OA-ICC is supported by several IAEA Member States through the IAEA Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI). It is advised by an Advisory Board consisting of key scientific institutions, UN organizations and leading scientists in the field. The project has an initial duration planned for 3 years. 13