Basics of Demand Forecasting. Ed Holland, AICP Planning Director Orange Water and Sewer Authority May 9, 2012
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1 Basics of Demand Forecasting Ed Holland, AICP Planning Director Orange Water and Sewer Authority May 9, 2012
2 Presentation Outline Forecasting what? Trends and patterns External factors Information sources OWASA examples Tips to keep in mind
3 Forecasting what?
4 Forecasting what? Total consumption (demand)
5 Forecasting what? Total consumption (demand) Numbers of accounts (by type, meter size, etc.)
6 Look for trends and patterns in the data
7 Total Number of Accounts
8 Observations from the data:
9 Observations from the data: Stable (and linear) increase of 468 accounts/yr ~1% growth
10 Accounts by Type
11 Observations from the data:
12 Observations from the data: Growth in accounts appears to be uniform across all types
13 Consumption (Demand)
14 Consumption (Demand)
15 Observations from the data:
16 Observations from the data: Total consumption has been essentially flat for the past 4 yrs
17 Total Consumption by Account Type
18 Relative Consumption by Account Type
19 Observations from the data:
20 Observations from the data: Relative consumption by account type has not changed
21 Summary of Observations: Stable (and linear) increase of 468 accounts/yr ~1% growth Growth in accounts appears to be uniform across all types Total consumption has been essentially flat for the past 4 yrs Relative consumption by account type has not changed
22 So, what s your forecast for next year?
23 So, what s your forecast for next year? Very slight increase (+468) in total accounts.
24 So, what s your forecast for next year? Very slight increase (+468) in total accounts. No change in consumption, assume rebound to level of first two years.
25 External Factors?
26 External Factors? Normal growth within service area?
27 External Factors? Normal growth within service area? Potential changes to service area boundaries (annexation, etc.)?
28 External Factors? Normal growth within service area? Potential changes to service area boundaries (annexation, etc.)? Any new conservation or demand management initiatives?
29 External Factors? Normal growth within service area? Potential changes to service area boundaries (annexation, etc.)? Any new conservation or demand management initiatives? Major new residential or development projects?
30 External Factors? Normal growth within service area? Potential changes to service area boundaries (annexation, etc.)? Any new conservation or demand management initiatives? Major new residential or development projects? Special economic development initiatives?
31 Information Sources
32 Information Sources Use local data whenever possible, especially from local planning, zoning, and inspection departments:
33 Information Sources Use local data whenever possible, especially from local planning, zoning, and inspection departments: Comprehensive plans Buildout projections, transportation analysis zone (TAZ) data if available Building permit data Other?
34 Some OWASA Examples Service area boundaries Recent and long-term demand trends Anticipated effects of conservation and reuse
35
36 Water Use By Major Customer Group Single family 35% Multi-family 20% UNC 28% Commercial/Other 17%
37 No Change Among Major Groups
38 Local Development Trends
39 Decreasing supply of raw land Shift toward smaller SFR lot sizes More infill and redevelopment, including tear-down Increasing proportion of new attached, townhouse style residential housing
40 Decreasing supply of raw land Shift toward smaller SFR lot sizes More infill and redevelopment, including tear-down Increasing proportion of new attached, townhouse style residential housing
41 Decreasing supply of raw land Shift toward smaller SFR lot sizes More infill and redevelopment, including tear-down Increasing proportion of new attached, townhouse style residential housing
42 Decreasing supply of raw land Shift toward smaller SFR lot sizes More infill and redevelopment, including tear-down Increasing proportion of new townhouse style attached housing
43 Proposals for higher intensity mixed-use projects in Carrboro and Chapel Hill Projected decrease in per unit water demands New reclaimed water system will further offset potable water sales
44 Proposals for higher intensity mixed-use projects in Carrboro and Chapel Hill Projected decrease in per unit water demands New reclaimed water system will further offset potable water sales
45 Proposals for higher intensity mixed-use projects in Carrboro and Chapel Hill Projected decrease in per unit water demands New reclaimed water system will further offset drinking water sales
46 Recent Trends in OWASA Customer Demands
47 Conservation!
48 Declining rate of single family home construction
49 Good New/Bad News Demands (and revenues) are becoming much less predictable. No more steady breeze of growth to propel us forward Reduced demand projections may allow the deferral or avoidance of major capital expenditures
50 Good New/Bad News Demands (and revenues) are becoming much less predictable
51 Good New/Bad News Demands (and revenues) are becoming much less predictable No more steady breeze of growth propelling us forward
52 Good New/Bad News Demands (and revenues) are becoming much less predictable No more steady breeze of growth propelling us forward Reduced demand projections may allow deferral or avoidance of major capital expenditures
53 A few tips... Look for patterns and trends in past/recent data. Don t be afraid to extrapolate or simply connect the dots. Be sure to reality-check your forecasts with local housing data and employment projections whenever possible. Don t try to do more than the data can support.
54 A few tips... Look for patterns and trends in past/recent data. Don t be afraid to extrapolate or simply connect the dots. Be sure to reality-check your forecasts with local housing data and employment projections whenever possible. Don t try to do more than the data can support.
55 A few tips... Look for patterns and trends in past/recent data. Don t be afraid to extrapolate or simply connect the dots. Be sure to reality-check your forecasts with local housing data and employment projections whenever possible. Don t try to do more than the data can support.
56 A few tips... Look for patterns and trends in past/recent data. Don t be afraid to extrapolate or simply connect the dots. Be sure to reality-check your forecasts with local housing data and employment projections whenever possible. Don t try to do more than the data can support.
57 Good Luck!
58 Questions, Comments? Ed Holland, AICP Planning Director Orange Water and Sewer Authority 400 Jones Ferry Road Carrboro, NC
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