Southern Beaches Adaptation for a Baltic Sea bathing destination

Transcription

1 Picture: Szponder Southern Beaches Adaptation for a Baltic Sea bathing destination Holger Janßen 1, Susanne Schumacher 2, Rene Friedland 1, Inga Haller 2, Inga Krämer 1, Thomas Neumann 1, Gerald Schernewski 1, Toni Schröder 1, Nardine Stybel 1,2 & Lars Tiepolt 3 1 Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde 2 EUCC The Coastal Union Germany 3 States Agency for Agriculture and Environment (StALU MM) S. Maack

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3 Tourism The most important economic sector in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

4 What do tourists want? Good water quality Toilets close by Clean beaches Water transparency No brown/green water colour Low visitors density Cafe / Restaurant Parking possibilities Broad and clean beaches Clear bathing waters

5 Climate change challenges: A) Water quality

6 Climate change challenges: A) Water quality Future scenarios: Land-use changes Nitogen load 2020? N/P-ratio 2020? Perspectives based on scenarios business as usual and subsidized agriculture. Increasing nutrient loads + climate change Responsible authorities & institutions: LUNG, EU, HELCOM

7 Climate change challenges: B) Erosion Erosion Balanced state Accumulation Sediment transport direction Sinking coast and sea level rise (rslr 30 cm/100 yr) Erosion of -35 cm/yr in average Responsible authority: StALU MM Loss/ increase (cm/yr)

8 Climate change challenges: C) Actors Responsible bodies for A) Coastal Protection and B) Water Quality but who is responsible for tourism itself? Heterogenic private actors (mainly short term interests) Ministry of Economy (strategic policy framework only) Spatial Planning agencies (framework only) Unprepared stakeholders for the most important economic sector

9 Beach adaptation A) Water quality B) Coastal protection transnational national regional national regional C) Tourism stakeholders transnational national regional local One spot Three processes Many levels

10 A) Water quality B) Coastal protection C) Tourism stakeholders

11 7 Rivers, e.g. Oder river: Land use and nutrient flux modelling for 120,000 km² devided into 484 sub basins Map: Hürdler, Opitz & Venohr (IGB-Berlin)

12 Schernewski G. & H. Behrendt & T. Neumann (2008)

13 Impacts and Adapatation Climate Change Climate Change & BSAP Friedland, Neumann & Schernewski (submitted): Climate Change and the Baltic Sea Action Plan: Model simulations on the future of the western Baltic Sea. J Marine Systems.

14 Parameter Climate Change (A1B-scenario) Climate Change & Baltic Sea Action Plan Water temperature Ice cover Water transparency Mixing depth Oxygen Salinity Nitrogen (DIN,winter) Nitrogen (DIN,summer) Phosphorus (DIP,winter) strong increase strong decrease weak increase weak decrease no significant change Phosphorus (DIP, summer) Cyanobacteria Diatoms Chlorophyll a (summer) Detritus Zooplankton biomass Denitrification N-Fixation Friedland, Neumann & Schernewski (submitted): Climate Change and the Baltic Sea Action Plan: Model simulations on the future of the western Baltic Sea. J Marine Systems.

15 BSAP is a huge challenge and not sufficient to achieve the Water Framework Directive goals

16 New solutions needed E.g. mussel beds as filtration measure within the estuaries Further research needed. BaltCICA delivered input for other projects (ARTWEI, RADOST)

17 A) Water quality B) Coastal protection C) Tourism stakeholders

18 Coastal protection The Approach Sustainable coastal protection Avoiding artificial materials (e.g. steel, concrete) Beach nourishment on Rügen island Regional planning process Involving regional and local stakeholders

19 Coastal protection The Investment Beach nourishment solution was fully agreed Funding from regional and national level, unlocking 2.4 m Euro investments

20 Case Studies Map: Michael Staudt, GTK

21 Implementation of Coastal Protection Measures

22 Case Studies Map: Michael Staudt, GTK

23 Tourism marketing (2012)

24 South beach: Natural beach nourished in 2010

25 Storm Andrea 6th January

26 4 hours later

27 Sea level: +1.5 m

28 A) Water quality B) Coastal protection C) Tourism stakeholders

29 Adaptation facilitators Ministry Ministry Tourism stakeholders - Adaptation networks missing / weak - Knowledge gaps - No adaptation needs on individual level because of short term investment return Agency Agency Agency

30 Networking & Knowledge transfer

31 Adaptation facilitators Tourism stakeholders - Increasing knowledge - Increasing networks Ministry Ministry Agency Agency Agency - Multiannual work programme (complementary national project)

32 The beach - One spot with interlinked human activities but each adaptation process has its own - Drivers - Social situation - Legal situation - Financial situation - Knowledge situation - Speed

33 Thank you for your attention! Holger Janßen Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW) Seestrasse Rostock-Warnemünde Germany Mail: Phone: Fax: