Potential Transit and Highway Revenue Options. Outline

Transcription

1 Potential Transit and Highway Revenue Options Symposium on Transportation Long-Range Funding Solutions June 24, 2009 Ed Idzorek, Minnesota Dept of Transportation 1 Outline Scope Influencing Transit and Highway Revenues Scenarios Revenue Options 2 1

2 Scope Primarily State of Minnesota with some Local and Regional considerations 3 Influencing Transit Revenue under Current Tax Structure Increasing Existing Revenue Transit More vehicle sales > More MVST More high-cost vehicle sales > More MVST Lower fuel price > More VMT > More Federal Transit Account Increased ridership > More farebox receipts Decreased ridership > Lower farebox receipts Fewer vehicle sales > Less MVST More low-cost vehicle sales > Less MVST Higher fuel price > Less VMT > Less Federal Transit Account Decreasing 4 2

3 Transit Revenue/Demand Conundrum under Current Tax Structure Increasing fuel price results in: Higher transit ridership, increasing transit capital and operating costs Fewer vehicle purchases, decreasing MVST Lower VMT, reducing Federal Transit Account 5 Influencing Highway Revenue under Current Tax Structure Increasing Existing Revenue Highways Lower fuel price > Less efficient vehicles > More fuel consumption Lower fuel price > More VMT > More fuel consumption More high cost vehicle sales > More MVST & Higher tab fees Fewer alternative-fuel vehicle sales > More fuel consumption More alternative-fuel vehicle sales > Less fuel consumption More lower cost vehicle sales > Less MVST & Lower tab fees Higher fuel price > Less VMT > Less fuel consumption Higher fuel price > More efficient vehicles > Less fuel consumption Decreasing 6 3

4 Scenario: More Electric Vehicles Reduced Motor Fuel Tax collections Electric vehicles may be more expensive resulting in higher Motor Vehicle Sales Tax and Motor Vehicle Registration Tax collected Per year change slow (~6% new vehicles each year) 7 Scenario: Higher MPG Vehicles Reduced Motor Fuel Tax collections for same VMT Less expensive vehicles may result in reduced Motor Vehicle Sales Tax and Motor Vehicle Registration tax collections Per year change slow (~6% new vehicles each year) 8 4

5 Scenario: Lower-cost vehicles Reduced total Motor Vehicle Sales Tax Reduced total Motor Vehicle Registration Tax -or- May result in more vehicle sales (accelerated fleet turnover) 9 Revenue Options Significant previous study Local and Regional Funding Mechanisms for Public Transportation, Transit Cooperative Research Program Report No. 129, Transportation Research Board, 2009 Transportation for Tomorrow: Report of the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission, December 2007 Future Financing Options to Meet Highway and Transit Needs, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report No (49), December

6 Revenue Options Desirable Characteristics: Stable Adequate Promotes positive environmental outcomes Equitable Acceptable to Public Technical feasibility Low administrative costs (efficient) 11 Organization of Revenue Options Matrix Existing Revenue Sources Modifications to Existing Revenue Sources Potential Revenue Sources Other Potential Revenue Sources 12 6

7 Organization of Revenue Options Matrix (cont.) Effect of increase in fuel economy Effect of increased availability of alternative modes Effect of extreme volatility in fuel prices Public acceptance of tax method Tax equity Geographic applicability Ability to alleviate congestion Ability to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Implementation complexity Stability of revenue generation method Revenue generation potential

8 Existing 1. Motor Fuel Tax Used since 1920s with periodic rate adjustments. Increasing fuel economy, availability of alternative modes, and fuel price volatility all tend to reduce revenue. Regressive tax. Historically difficult to raise rate. Higher consumer (GHG emitter) pays more tax. No connection to congestion. Simple and established collection. Revenue growth dependent on increased consumption. No inflation adjustment. 15 Existing 2. Motor Vehicle Sales Tax Auto oriented development patterns ensure mode split that favors autos. Same rate paid regardless of vehicle value. Increased use of alternative modes may reduce auto sales. General aversion to new taxes. Same rate paid regardless of vehicle value. No connection to congestion or GHG emissions. High yield during good economy. Revenue tracks general economy. Future smaller, less costly vehicles may be less expensive. 16 8

9 Existing 3. Vehicle Registration Tax Familiar. Generally accepted. Increased use of alternative modes may reduce auto sales. Based on value of vehicle. No connection to congestion or GHG emissions. Easy to administer. More stable and predictable due to slow change in fleet. Predictable but declining. 17 Existing 4. General Funds Competes with other needs such as education, health care, etc. Higher General Fund investment in transit may increase ridership reducing both congestion and GHG emissions. Relatively stable and predictable. Tax code complex. Subject to change by legislation. 18 9

10 Existing 5. Local Option Sales Tax Implemented at Local (County) level so fair acceptance. Available in all counties (not implemented in all). Revenues currently directed to transit so tends to reduce both congestion and GHG emissions. General aversion to taxes. Everyone pays same tax rate. No direct connection to congestion or GHG emissions. Sensitive to general economy. 19 Existing 6. Property Tax Generally accepted. Difficult to increase. Stable and generally predictable

11 Existing 7. HOT Pricing Modest, but loyal customer base. Increased transit and car pool use decrease space for toll customers Regressive in that everyone pays same toll. Price tied to HOT lane demand (Congestion Pricing). Toll payer receives near real time congestion price signal. Stable thus far (only a few years experience). Complex to operate. Revenue generation pays for operation only. 21 Existing 8. Value Capture Benefit (TIF) districts target specific beneficiaries. Can divert local revenues from other needs. Can be used for Transit Oriented Development No connection to congestion or GHG emissions. Generate part of funding for specific projects. Complex. Project specific. No statewide application

12 Existing 9. Wheelage Tax Implemented at Local (County) level so fair acceptance. Regressive. All vehicles pay the same amount. No connection to congestion or GHG emissions. Collected with State Vehicle Registration Tax. Stable in tied to number of registered vehicles. Modest amount currently authorized for counties. 23 Existing 10. Transit Fare Box Revenue Well accepted. Increased availability may increase ridership. Increased fuel economy may reduce transit ridership. Everyone pays the same fare. Increased ridership reduces congestion and GHG emissions. Simple, tracks ridership. Ridership fluctuation. Fare increases

13 Modified Existing 11. Indexed Motor Fuel Tax Tracks fuel price increases. Tracks fuel price decreases. Marginal public acceptance where used. Higher consumer (GHG emitter) pays more tax. Collection system in place. Less stable. Rates and revenues change more rapidly. 25 Modified Existing 12. Motor Fuel Sales Tax Increased travel results in increased revenue. Increased fuel economy will reduce revenues. Amplifies retail price volatility. Regressive. Not tied to congestion or GHG emission. Psuedo indexed. Revenue increases as fuel price increases. Less stable. Rates and revenues can change rapidly with wholesale fuel price

14 Modified Existing 13. Vehicle Registration Tax (by emission level) All vehicles pay. Availability of alternative modes may shrink total number of vehicles over time. Lower emission vehicles may be more expensive. Strong GHG emission price signal. Not likely to influence congestion. Easy to administer. More stable and predictable due to slow change in fleet. 27 Potential Sources 14a. Mileage Based Tax (flat rate) Immune to fuel economy changes. Likely to be phased in with new vehicles (slow changeover). Alternative mode availability and fuel price volatility may reduce VMT. Public resistance to change? New winners and losers. Out-of-state travel. Not tied to congestion or GHG emission. Could be as simple as an annual odometer reading. As stable as motor fuel. Will require new collection method(s). Significant administration costs

15 Potential Sources 14b. Mileage Based Tax (emission level) Immune to fuel economy changes. Good GHG signal to driver. No congestion price signal. Will require new collection method(s). Complex. 29 Potential Sources 14c. Mileage Based Tax (time and location) Immune to fuel economy changes. Simple to understand. Might increase use of alternative modes and reduce revenues. Privacy concerns. Strong congestion price signal. May result in lower VMT and lower congestion and GHG emissions. Could generate sufficient revenue and repalce the existing motor fuel tax. Most complex of Mileage Based options

16 Potential Sources 15a. Tolling Existing Lanes MnPASS successful. Take away. Already paid for. Tends to reduce travel therefore reduces congestion and GHG emissions 31 Potential Sources 15b. Tolling New Lanes Better accepted than existing lanes. May not generate significant revenue

17 Potential Sources 15c. Tolling Congestion Pricing MnPASS successful. Only applicable / practical in congested areas (Twin Cities). Good congestion price signal. Complex to administer. Price signal may reduce VMT / revenue. 33 Potential Sources 16. General Sales Tax Generally accepted. Regressive tax. High fuel prices may reduce other spending. No connection to congestion or GHG emissions. Administratively simple. Revenues track with overall economy

18 Other Potential Sources 17a. Value Capture - Land Value Tax May encourage denser more compact development (less travel) No connection to congestion or GHG emissions. Modest potential for Local revenue generation. 35 Other Potential Sources 17d. Value Capture Transportation Utility Fees Already in use for stormwater. Not currently authorized in Minnesota. No direct connection to congestion or GHG emissions. Rate tied to trip generation. Modest potential for Local revenue generation

19 Other Potential Sources 18. Cap and Trade (Skim 10% for Transit) May accelerate availability of alternative modes. Reduces GHG emissions from non-transportation sources and thru shifts to alternative modes. Revenue source is nontransportation (electric generation and industrial). Revenue stability unclear. Zero revenue if completely successful. Complex to implement. 37 Other Potential Sources 19. Low Carbon Fuel Standard (Life Cycle) Encourgages fuel economy Fuel user has limited control over fuel source. Should reduce GHG emissions Complex. Stability not clear

20 Other Potential Sources 20. Cordon Pricing Encourages alternative mode use. Strong congestion price signal No connection to GHG emissions. 39 Conclusions Broad and growing range of revenue options available Some better suited to achieving specific goals May take multiple options to cover all goals 40 20

21 Next Steps Policymakers establish goals Technical folks develop approach(es) to meeting established goals 41 21