EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Transportation is one of the most rapidly rising sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG)

Transcription

1 Flexing the Link between Transport and Greenhouse Gas Emissions A Path for the World Bank Lee Schipper Celine Marie-Lilliu Roger Gorham International Energy Agency Paris June 2000

2 CONTENTS Executive Summary 1 Introduction 5 Trends in Energy Use and CO 2 Emissions 7 Global Trends 7 Trends in the IEA 9 Methodological approach 10 Challenges Facing GHG Restraint in Transport 13 Driving Factors 13 Transportation activity 13 Modal structure 15 Energy intensity 15 Fuel mix 16 Facing Carbon Emissions from Transport 17 Previous Oil-Saving and Transport Pollution Control Programs 19 Tools and Methods Hooking Solutions to Problems 21 Flexing the Link Analytical Approaches to Transport Trends 21 Activity (A) 21 iii

3 Flexing the Link Between Transport and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Structure (S) 22 Intensity (I) 22 Energy intensity (E) 23 Capacity mix (M/U) 23 Capacity utilization (U) 23 Operational optimality (O) 24 Fuel choice (F) 24 Flexing the Link Approaches to the Policy Challenge 25 Private industry Vehicle suppliers (importers and producers) and fuel suppliers 25 Public/government interests 26 Individual and business consumer interests 27 Special interests 27 Flexing the Link Bank Policy and Operations 27 Flexing the Link Better Policies, Better Practice 28 Better policies 28 Better practices 28 Vehicle technology 29 Improved collective transit and non-motorized pathways 30 Road technology 31 Land-use planning 32 Proper pricing of transportation inputs 32 Flexing the Link Pricing for Integrated Policy Solutions 32 Fuel taxation 33 Other variable costs 34 Vehicle ownership charges 35 Fuel economy regulations 35 Interaction of Policies and Components of Emissions 36 Expanding the Knowledge Base Better Analytical Tools 37 Aggregate approaches 37 Disaggregate approaches 40 Expanding the Knowledge Base Better Data 40 Designing a Transportation/CO 2 Strategy for the Bank 43 General Considerations 43 Issues Facing Development of a Strategy in each Region, Country, or Project 45 Timeframe 45 Transport policy in context 45 Geographic considerations 45 Existing conditions 46 Steps in a GHG Assessment 46 Conclusions 47 Appendix More on Carbon Emissions from Transportation 49 Notes 52 iv

4 References 53 Figures 1 Per capita CO 2 emissions from the transport sector (tons CO 2 ) 8 2 Growth in the emissions from the transport sector and the rest of the economy, Share of transport in total CO 2 emissions, Tables 1 Interactions of policies and ASIF components 39 A1 CO 2 emissions by region 49 A2 CO 2 intensity by region 50 A3 Travel decomposition of carbon 51 A4 Freight decomposition of carbon 51 v

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Transportation is one of the most rapidly rising sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, that increase often faster than GDP in developing countries. Public and private authorities in these countries, however, place a low priority on global issues such as GHG emissions, and as far as transport is concerned, are more concerned about serious problems arising in conjunction with its development and use. One reason is that the externalities associated with GHG damages tend to be much less than those associated with safety, congestion or air pollution, for example. A less obvious reason is that present generations are exposed directly to the later externalities at the local level, but the outcomes of policies aiming at reducing or restraining GHG emissions for its own sake are uncertain, as the negotiations in Kyoto revealed. Therefore, initiatives to restrain GHG emissions should be aligned closely with overall strategies to reform the transport sector, which is the strategy followed by a number of European countries. Together with vigorous research and marketing of new low-fuel intensity vehicles and carbon taxes to favor truly low-carbon fuels, stabilization or even reductions in emissions from transport could occur by the second decade of the next century. For developing countries, with much more rapid growth in vehicle stocks and utilization, the real policy challenge for developing countries is to reform transportation policies and customs now while systems are still only beginning to grow and customs to eliminate obvious and hidden subsidies and make users pay 1

6 Flexing the Link Between Transport and Greenhouse Gas Emissions full social costs yet boost overall social welfare. Even in rapidly growing countries, however, it will take decades for policies, technologies, and alternative fuels to halt the rise in emissions and bring them down. What remains the most attractive package for developing countries is to usher in truly low-co 2 vehicles (including two and three wheelers that may substitute significantly and permanently for cars not yet owned in urban areas), and to develop mobility patterns that create access without an over-demand for kilometers. The World Bank plays an important role in lending for transportation in many Less Developed Countries (LDC) and Economies in Transition (EIT). These projects by nature raise GHG emissions by raising overall welfare and mobility as well. A number of changes of policy, as well as expansion of efforts into new areas, could both reduce GHG implications of Bank projects, lead to greater restraint or abatement overall in its client countries, and further provide incentives to international vehicle and fuel suppliers to make even greater efforts by helping shape the market for lowcarbon vehicles in the rapidly growing LDCs and the reshaped EITs: Forging policy developments that price cost recovery and externalities into transportation costs today (fuels and road use, for instance) as systems are still in relative infancy Accelerating development and deployment directly in LDCs of low-co 2 cars and trucks, as well as clean two and three wheeled alternative vehicles Financing development of infrastructure that supports innovative and financially viable collective transport systems like those in Curatiba (Brazil), a system that truly reduces uses of automobiles in a town with otherwise the highest car ownership in Brazil Linking CO 2 to major initiatives to reduce air pollution, congestion, and other severe problems created by rapidly growing volumes of traffic, and vice versa Assuming a proactive role, working directly with vehicle suppliers, technology developers, and client country policymakers to broker agreements among these stakeholders to develop new markets low-emissions mobility. Short of R&D itself, this stance can push others much faster to developing technologies for emerging markets identified by the Bank and support by local policies the Bank is instrumental in creating Providing Technical Assistance (and training within countries) to provide or finance basic passenger and goods mobility surveys, fuel-use and emissions testing of new and existing vehicles, as well as land-use development models that better anticipate how economic expansion could reduce the need for people and goods to move around so much Carefully linking together key elements of parallel or sequential projects into a long-term strategy for both countries and regions as well as for the suppliers of fuels and vehicles, using some of the elements suggested in this study, 2

7 Executive Summary. the Bank could have a thoughtful and measurable impact on CO 2 emissions from transportation in developing countries. Global overlays represents an excellent chance for Bank initiatives to embrace a full range of low GHG options. The ASIF methodology offers an analytical framework, naturally linked to the Overlays. By decomposing trends in emissions into transportation Activity, modal Shares, the energy Intensities of each mode and the Fuel mix of each mode with its GHG emissions characteristics, we estimate how each key component of transportation activity is changing today, and how those changes could be altered, with what quantitative consequences. We also see where interventions in energy Intensities and Fuel mix (technologies and utilization) have the largest promise for restraint, while policies that affect Activities and modal Share through broader transport reform will also restrain emissions. Unfortunately, success is slow because of the long lead times and slow turnover of vehicles and infrastructure, even in rapidly growing countries. The Bank must look beyond individual project planning towards a strategy where sequential projects and other developments in countries (and regions) are all considered over very long times, in order to apply overlays to calculate the full real benefits of actions to restrain GHG emissions. Policy actions must be few but clear in nature and strong in impact to reduce the risks of having no impact or perverse outcomes. Taking this longer-term perspective ensures an active Bank role during a significantly long period of development (one to two decades). Such an approach is required if low-ghg vehicles and systems are to be developed and nurtured. 3