FOX RIVER WATERSHED INVESTIGATION

Transcription

1 October 14, 2014 Alena Bartosova, Illinois State Water Survey FOX RIVER WATERSHED INVESTIGATION

2 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Fox River Study Group, Inc. Fox Metro WRD, Fox River WRD, City of Aurora, City of Elgin, MWRD Greater Chicago, McHenry County IEPA, USGS, NOAA, ISWS modeling team: Phase 3: Luke Bard, William Gillespie, Jayanthi Gopal, Jennifer Hill, Kris Kite, Marni Law, Brad McVay, Jim Slowikowski, Amy Russell Phase 1-2: Karla Andrew, Erin Bauer, Jennifer Byard, Christopher Jennings, Vern Knapp, Brad Larson, Michael Machesky, Sally McConkey, Sarah Milton, Jaswinder Singh, Mustafa Rahim, Mary Richardson

3 PROJECT OVERVIEW Phase I: Phase II: Phase III: Phase IV: Understand Available Information Develop Planning Tools Integrated Monitoring/ Refine models Implementation Water quality (FoxDB) HSPF: loads, storm events Low flow monitoring Propose & promote management actions GIS data QUAL2K: DO regime during low flows Storm event monitoring Evaluate planned WWTP expansions, NPDES permits, etc. Literature review and publication database Monitoring plan Refinement of Planning Tools Continued model update & monitoring How to address the issues Biological data (FoxDB modified) Evaluate management options (scenarios) Implementation Plan

4 ALGAE & TOTAL PHOSPHORUS Other constituents evaluated in our study: Sediment Nitrogen Fecal Coliforms

5 SOURCES OF TP IN FOX RIVER WATERSHED Fox Total, long-term average annual TP load 9% 6% 26% Urban Agriculture 53% 6% Others Point Sources Upstream Boundary Area between Stratton Dam and Fox River confluence with Illinois River Determined from calibrated HSPF model runs for

6 TP DURING JUNE 2012 SAMPLING Oswego (Millstone Park) Yorkville (above dam) Sheridan Burtons Bridge Algonquin I-90 Elgin (Kimball) Elgin (National) South Elgin (above dam) St. Charles (above dam) Geneva (Fabyan) Aurora (Sullivan) Montgomery (Ashland)

7 CHLOROPHYLL A DURING JUNE 2012 SAMPLING St. Charles (above dam) Geneva (Fabyan) Aurora (Sullivan) Montgomery (Ashland) Oswego (Millstone Park) Yorkville (above dam) Sheridan Burtons Bridge Algonquin I-90 Elgin (Kimball) Elgin (National) South Elgin (above dam)

8 CALIBRATED QUAL2K MODEL: SIMULATED CHLOROPHYLL A

9 Total P (ug/l) Sleepy Hollow Creek Average Total P (ug/l): Current Upstream Conditions Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Dam Tributary Flint Creek Algonquin Tyler Creek Poplar Creek South Elgin St. Charles North Aurora Montgomery Waubonsie Creek Yorkville Big Rock Creek Somonauk Creek Indian Creek south Dayton FUTURE SCENARIOS: TOTAL PHOSPHORUS DURING LOW FLOWS River Mile Varies with TP limit on NPDES Scenario TP limit (mg/l) Major Facility Minor Facility Number of dams removed Baseline No limit* No limit* No limit No limit No limit No limit 13

10 Phytoplankton (uga/l) Sleepy Hollow Creek Average Phytoplankton (uga/l): Current Upstream Conditions Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Dam Tributary Flint Creek 90 Algonquin 80 Tyler Creek Poplar Creek South Elgin 70 St. Charles 60 North Aurora Montgomery 50 River Mile Waubonsie Creek 40 Yorkville Big Rock Creek 30 Somonauk Creek 20 Indian Creek south 10 Dayton 0 FUTURE SCENARIOS: PHYTO- PLANKTON DURING LOW FLOWS Varies with number of dams removed Scenario TP limit (mg/l) Major Facility Minor Facility Number of dams removed Baseline No limit* No limit* No limit No limit No limit No limit 13

11 300 Average Bottom Algae (mga/m2): Current Upstream Conditions Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Dam Tributary FUTURE SCENARIOS: Bottom Algae (mga/m2) Tyler Creek Detail: South Elgin Dam River Mile Poplar Creek South Elgin BOTTOM ALGAE DURING LOW FLOWS Varies with number of dams removed Scenario TP limit (mg/l) Major Facility Minor Facility Number of dams removed Baseline No limit* No limit* No limit No limit No limit No limit 13

12 AVERAGE TOTAL PHOSPHORUS LOAD BASELINE HSPF MODEL

13 Urban BMPs Tillage CHANGE IN TP LOAD FROM BASELINE The darker the blue, the higher the change NPDES Combined

14 Fox River mainstem, TP (t/yr) 0BASE 1URB 2AG 3PS 4AGUR 5AUP Dams Tributaries 12,000 Total Phosphorus Load, t/yr 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Sleepy Hollow Flint Algonquin Tyler Poplar South Elgin St. Charles North Aurora Montgomery Waubonsie Yorkville Big Rock Somonauk Indian Dayton TOTAL PHOSPHORUS 2, River Mile Fox River mainstem, TP (% Baseline) BASE 1URB 2AG 3PS 4AGUR 5AUP Dams Tributaries 120% Fox River Mainstem 100% Percent of Baseline Load 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100 Sleepy Hollow Flint Algonquin 75 Tyler Poplar South Elgin St. Charles North Aurora Montgomery Waubonsie 50 River Mile Yorkville Big Rock 25 Somonauk Indian Dayton 0

15 SUMMARY: IMPACT OF MANAGEMENT OPTIONS Management Option Change in Total Phosphorus Average annual load Concentrations during low flow Change in Phytoplankton chlorophyll a during low flow Urban BMPs <1% Conservation tillage -5% NPDES facilities: 1 mg/l limit -33% -56% 0% 0.1 mg/l limit % 0% Dam removal: 8 dams removed 0% 0% -9% all dams removed 0% 0% -30% Notes: Change in concentrations derived from median concentrations across the simulated reaches. Change in Dissolved Oxygen concentrations determined from the model is not reliable.

16 THANK YOU!

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