Energy. on this world and elsewhere. Instructor: Gordon D. Cates Office: Physics 106a, Phone: (434)

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Cates Office: Physics 106a, Phone: (434) 924-4792

edu Course web site available at www.phys.

1 Energy on this world and elsewhere Instructor: Gordon D. Cates Office: Physics 106a, Phone: (434) Course web site available at click on classes and find Physics or at October 3, 2013

2 Announcements Begin reading Richter s book, Part II, Energy, pages Begin reading Muller s book, from the preface through chapter 1.

3 Methods for extracting Oil Conventional crude - on shore Tight oil, or shale oil So-called heavy crude Conventional crude - off shore Tar sands, or oil sands, contain a substance known as bitumen. Oil shale (not yet commercially significant). Contains kerogen. Requires further refinement in order to become synthetic crude:

4 The tar sands or oil sands in Canada

5 Oil from Canadian tar sands Most of the world s oil (more than 5 trillion barrels) is in the form of tar sands, although it is not all recoverable. (From an ANL web site.) Roughly 1/3 of the tar sands are in Canada, and another 1/3 in Venezuela. The DOE has now classified about 173 billion barrels of oil associated with the Canadian tar sands as proven reserves. Estimates are that the reserves will probably climb to around 300 billion barrels with current technology. Saudia Arabia has roughly billion barrels of proven reserves, and it will almost certainly go down, while Canada s reserves will almost certainly go up.

6 The Canadian tar sands cover a vast region

46 A REPORTER AT LARGE about extracting oil from the Alberta tar sands. The most important resource in the town of Fort McMurray, in northern Alberta, is the Alberta tar sands.

7 History of Oil from Canadian tar sands Abstract A REPORTER AT LARGE UNCONVENTIONAL CRUDE Canada s synthetic-fuels boom. by Elizabeth Kolbert NOVEMBER 12, 2007 ELIZABETH KOLBERT, A REPORTER AT LARGE, "UNCONVENTIONAL CRUDE," THE NEW YORKER, NOVEMBER 12, 2007, P. 46 A REPORTER AT LARGE about extracting oil from the Alberta tar sands. The most important resource in the town of Fort McMurray, in northern Alberta, is the Alberta tar sands. The tar sands begin near the border of Saskatchewan and extend north and west almost to British Columbia. All in all, they cover some fifty-seven thousand square miles, an area the size of Florida. They consist of quartzite, clay, water, and a hydrocarbon known as bitumen, which can be converted into a form of petroleum known as synthetic crude. It s estimated that there s enough bitumen in Alberta to yield 1.7 trillion barrels of synthetic crude. Assuming only ten per cent of this is recoverable, it still represents the second-largest oil reserve in the world, after Saudi Arabia s. In Fort McMurray, what might be called the world s first unconventional oil boom is under way. Since 2002, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and Imperial Oil (which is primarily owned by ExxonMobil) have all received approval to construct major projects in the tar sands. Over the next five years, investment in the Fort McMurray area is expected to amount to over $75 billion. Thanks to what s happening in the tar sands output now tops $1 million barrels a day Canada has become America s No. 1 source of imported oil. By 2010, tar sands yield is expected to double, and by 2015 to triple. Depending on how you look at things, this is either a heartening prospect or a terrifying one. The company that s been producing oil from the tar sands the longest is known as Suncor. The writer toured Suncor s Millennium Mine, which opened in 2002, with Gloria Jackson and Darin Zandee. For every barrel of synthetic crude that Suncor eventually produces, forty-five hundred pounds of tar sands have to be dug up and separated. Describes the history of efforts to extract oil from the tar sands. Mentions Manley Natland. Describes Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD). A great deal of energy is required. It s estimated that by 2012 tar-sands operations will consume two billion cubic feet of natural gas a day. There are several reasons that oil companies are rushing to develop the tar sands. If the price of oil remains above $90, then these and other unconventional forms of fuel can be developed at a profit. With unconventional oil extraction, however, the damage to the environment tends to be higher all around more land gets disturbed, more pollutants are produced, and then there are the greenhouse gases. All unconventional forms of oil are worse for greenhouse-gas emissions than petroleum, said Alex Farrell, of the University of California at Berkeley. Farrell and Adam Brandt found that the shift to unconventional oil could add between fifty and four hundred gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere by There is a great deal of support in Washington for measures that would, in effect, subsidize high-carbon fuels. Mentions the Coal-to-Liquid Fuel Promotion Act (C.T.L.). In the

What started the Canadian tar sand boom? ;+):7978-76)50.$4321)10/.-,+*)!('&%$#"!! @ED @DD The landed price of a barrel of oil H"44.,9I&8$,&J.,,$4 CD GD FD *./.L.

8 What started the Canadian tar sand The landed price of a barrel of oil H"44.,9I&8$,&J.,,$4 CD GD FD *./.L. K/0#$L&M0/-L"6 N$70<" @AA? EDDD EDD? ED@D!"#$%&&'()*+',-./01.#0"/&"2&#3$&($#,"4$56&)78",#0/-&*"5/#,0$9: ;"5,<$%&&=.>4$&?:@A: From the previous USA Today article

9 Comparng the price of Canadian O"44.,9P&8$,&Q.,,$4 AD CD AD ED D F/0#$G!",H.I!0-$,0. ;.5G0 J5H.0# *"4"6K L$70<" M$/$K *./.G. J0/-G"6 R,.>0. >0. 15$4. Even with the issues of difficult production, it is competitive

10 Surface mining vs. In-situ Only 20% of the oil is available through surface mining. Surface mining currently accounts for over 60% of production. Extraction will be difficult and energy intensive. From the previous USA Today article

11 Open-pit mining of Canadian tar sands At present, about 62% of the nonconventional crude production in Canada is from open pit mines.

12 Open-pit mining of Canadian tar sands At present, about 62% of the nonconventional crude production in Canada is from open pit mines.

Next material goes into cyclofeeders where it is mixed with hot water to form a

13 Sands are shoveled into Caterpillar 797 dump trucks that stand 22 feet high and carry 400 ton loads. Material is loaded into crushers. Next material goes into cyclofeeders where it is mixed with hot water to form a slurry. From there it goes into giant centrifuges. Processing produces vast quantities of waste. Processing of tar sands

14 The In-situ recovery technique of steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) Steam is injected into the upper horizontal well. Heated heavy oil becomes less viscous and flows into lower horizontal well. Bitumen is pumped to surface. The process is very energy intensive.

15 What do you do with the bitumen? Often it is mixed with natural gas liquids so that it is non-viscous enough to be transported in pipelines. Sometimes it is mixed with high quality crude so that it is non-viscous enough to be transported through pipelines. Sometimes it is refined into synthetic crude on site in which case energy is needed for that process. Either way, you either need NGL s, high-quality crude, or lots of energy for the process. And from there?... the Keystone XL Pipeline...?

16 Actual and projected oil production in Canada Even at 5 million barrels per day, this would represent only 25% of our current consumption. But if our consumption were much less...

17 What will limit the growth of crude production from nonconventional oil? Resources Capital Process energy Greenhouse gases Water Local environmental impact

18 Actual and projected oil production in Canada Even at 5 million barrels per day, this would represent only 25% of our current consumption. But if our consumption were much less...

19 Interesting and sobering assessment of unconventional petroleum resources Quote from CERA Ignores Ten Warning Signposts of Peak Oil, from the web site of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas - USA (ASPO-USA) Written by Greg Geyer (Sunday, 19 November 2006) with Randy Udall, Energy Analyst, Co-Founder ASPO-USA Jeremy Gilbert, Former Chief Petroleum Engineer, BP Steve Andrews, Co-Founder ASPO-USA 7. Unconventional petroleum resources (Canada's tar sands, Venezuela's bitumen and U.S. oil shales) are very large and very misunderstood. All oil is not created equal. Although they total trillions of barrels in the aggregate, expanding unconventional production is expensive, technically arduous and slow. Because these resources can not be produced at high rates, they can do little to postpone the peak in global production. For example, at forecast 2015 rates of production, it will take more than a century to produce Canada's 175 billion barrels of tar sand reserves. (A financial analogy: Imagine having $100,000,000 in your IRA, but being forbidden to withdraw more than $100,000 per year. You are rich, sort of.) (ASPO describes themselves as... a non-profit, non-partisan research and public education initiative to address America s peak energy challenge ).

20 Before and after in Athabaska

21 Before and after in Alabaska The National Resource Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that eventually, a wilderness the size of Florida will be devestated.. The toxic waste ponds are already so vast that if drained into Lake Erie, the level would rise by ten inches.. Eventually the toxic waste ponds could raise the level of Lake Erie by three feet. I am not sure that I believe all of this. None-theless, I suspect that the news is not good.

22 The Canadian attitude? When I have asked Canadian friends, or even strangers, about the development of the tar sands, many have emphasized the history of industry based on natural resources rather than focussing on environmental impact. This is hardly, however, a scientific survey!!!

23 Quick reminder of older production enhancement methods of Oil Production

24 Oil Recovery

25 Oil Recovery

26 Oil Recovery In fact, it is unclear what modern techniques can do regarding the extraction of in-place oil. I have seen numbers much higher than the additional 10% cited in the reference above.

27 Oil use over time Cheap oil has fueled rapid expansion for over a century. World demand has increased enormously as industrialization has spread. The age of easy oil in the United States and the world is slowly ending, and prices are clearly rising, but consumption goes on... and on... and on...

28 Hubbert s Curve Hubbert s behaviorist approach to predicting resources, (from Energy, Its Use and the Environment by Hinrichs and Kleinbach)

29 Peak Oil - The Hubbert Curve

30 Domestic production vs. time Crude Oil and Natural Gas Plant Liquids Field Production, Crude Oil Million Barrels per Day Peak: 9.64 in 1970 Natural Gas Plant Liquids 5.31 in Petroleum products supplied is used as an approximation consumption. 2. Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production for

31 Domestic production vs. time Crude Oil and Natural Gas Plant Liquids Field Production, Crude Oil Million Barrels per Day Peak: 9.64 in 1970 The accuracy of Hubbert s prediction is a bit unnerving, 1965 vs Natural Gas Plant Liquids 5.31 in Petroleum products supplied is used as an approximation consumption. 2. Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production for

32 The Hubbert s prediction for world oil is a bit off, but by how much?

Energy. on this world and elsewhere. Instructor: Gordon D. Cates Office: Physics 106a, Phone: (434)

Energy. on this world and elsewhere. Instructor: Gordon D. Cates Office: Physics 106a, Phone: (434) Energy on this world and elsewhere Instructor: Gordon D. Cates Office: Physics 106a, Phone: (434) 924-4792 email: cates@virginia.edu Course web site available at www.phys.virginia.edu, click on classes