MAGIC Climate Resilience

Transcription

1 MAGIC Climate Resilience Planning and Preparing for Climate Change in the MAGIC Subregion DRAFT Working Group Meeting #3 June 2, 2016 Source: David Mark, Maynard Life Outdoors

2 AGENDA Welcome and Introductions Project Update Overview of Vulnerability Assessment Identification And Prioritization of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies Next Steps

3 INTRODUCTIONS In 30 seconds: Name and affiliation Favorite part of your neighborhood

4 MAGIC Climate Resilience Plan Project Background Sources: John Boyd, OARS; Town of Hudson website; Cucurbit Farm, Thomas Cooper

5 A MULTI-MUNICIPAL PLAN Population numbers from Census 2010 Source: US Census 2010

6 PLANNING AND PROJECT STRUCTURE The action plan will be organized around MA and MAPC Climate Change Adaptation work*: 1. Built Environment and Key Infrastructure 2. Natural Resources and Habitat 3. Human Health and Welfare 4. Local Economy and Government The plan will have two parts Part 1: Vulnerability Assessment Part 2: Adaptation and Mitigation Action Plan *Coastal Zone - not applied to MAGIC

7 PROJECT OUTCOMES In addition, the plan also seeks to bring about: Stronger networks of climate resilience stakeholders and increased social capital by: Fostering local dialogue on climate risks and strategies among MAGIC s citizens, government officials and staff; Creating or strengthening connections between public and private actors; Strengthening of social networks essential to climate preparedness. *Coastal Zone - not applied to MAGIC

8 MAGIC Climate Resilience Plan Check back on Survey Results Sources: John Boyd, OARS; Town of Hudson website; Cucurbit Farm, Thomas Cooper

9 SURVEY RESULTS Survey closed in April As of March: Total of 275 respondents (+86) Majority of respondents (>90%) live in MAGIC 14% also work and 19% volunteer in MAGIC At least one response from each municipality (+2) Majority (65%) of respondents feel it is Very Urgent that we respond to and prepare for climate change

10 SURVEY RESULTS: CONCERNS Concerns about climate change impacts n= % 41.0% 35.0% 32.0% 12.0% Ecological systems Public Health Effects on Agriculture Economy and Built Environment Other

11 SURVEY RESULTS: EXPERIENCES Climate related impacts experienced in the past or to-date n=247 Impacts to Surface Water 29% Health problems (Vector) 37% Flooding on Roads/Paths 43% Property Damage (Winter) 52% Issues with Energy Supply. 55% Invasive species/diseases 57%

12 Overview and Discussion of Vulnerability Assessment Focus on Health and Local Economy & Government Sources: John Boyd, OARS; Town of Hudson website; Cucurbit Farm, Thomas Cooper

13 WHAT'S HAPPENING? (IMPACTS) Parameter Current Conditions ( ) Predicted Range by 2050 Predicted Range by 2100 Annual temperature ( F) to to 56 Winter temperature ( F) to to 33 Summer temperature ( F) to to 78 Annual sea surface temp. ( F) Annual precipitation (in.) 41 5% to 8% 7% to 14% Winter precipitation (in.) 8 6% to 16% 12% to 30% Summer precipitation (in) 11-1% to -3% -1% to 0% Streamflow (spring peak: days following Jan. 1) to to 74 Droughts lasting 1-3 months (#/30 yrs) to to 23 Sea-level rise -- 1 to 1.5 feet 2 to 6 feet

14 CLIMATE CHANGE + HEALTH Climate change is one of many determinants of health

15 CLIMATE CHANGE: EXTREME WEATHER Increased Flooding and Wildfires, affects Water Contamination Property Loss Infrastructure Damage Health Impacts include Water borne illnesses Injury and death

16 CLIMATE CHANGE: HIGHER TEMPS Higher Temperatures, affects More frequent extreme heat days Longer duration extremes Heat Island effects Health Impacts include Dehydration Heat stress and stroke Cardiovascular illness exacerbation Respiratory illness exacerbation Mental health issues

17 PUBLIC HEALTH CURRENT ISSUES Heat Stress Emergency Department Visits* *0 does not mean none; Data based on one year reporting and annual averages are being pursued to increase stability of data Age-adjusted rate per 10,000 people Massachusetts Center for Health Information and Analysis (CHIA), 2012 Source: MA EPHT, MDPH

18 PUBLIC HEALTH CURRENT ISSUES Hypertension Hospitalizations * North Quadrant (15.4, 29.34) East Quadrant (16.23, 25) South Quadrant (16.24, 32.48) West Quadrant (17.74, 33.93) MAGIC Subregion (19.15, 25.22) Massachusetts (44.79, 46.19) Asthma Hospitalizations * North Quadrant (43.35, 64.74) East Quadrant (57.78, 75.56) South Quadrant (37.8, 60.67) West Quadrant (74.04, ) MAGIC Subregion (58.89, 70.08) Massachusetts (150.56, ) *Age Adjusted Rate per 100,000 (95% CI) Source: MassCHIP, MDPH

19 PUBLIC HEALTH CURRENT ISSUES Mental Health Hospitalizations * North Quadrant (672.33, ) East Quadrant (532.08, ) South Quadrant (665.12, ) West Quadrant (601.42, ) MAGIC Subregion (616.54, ) Massachusetts (834.74, ) Diabetes Hospitalizations * North Quadrant (46.42, 69.48) East Quadrant (38.57, 52.35) South Quadrant 87.4 (69.94, ) West Quadrant (69.05, 98.28) MAGIC Subregion (54.56, 65.13) Massachusetts (133.81, ) *Age Adjusted Rate per 100,000 (95% CI) Source: MassCHIP, MDPH

20 CLIMATE CHANGE: VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES Changes in precipitation and temperature affect Expansion of geographical range Changes in reproductive cycle Changes in behavior Health Impacts include increased cases of disease such as: Lyme disease West Nile Virus Eastern Equine Encephalitis

21 PUBLIC HEALTH CURRENT ISSUES Incidence Rates (per 100,000 pop) for confirmed Lyme Disease Lyme Disease in Massachusetts: A Report Issued by the Special Commission to Conduct an Investigation and Study of the Incidence and Impacts of Lyme Disease

22 PUBLIC HEALTH CURRENT ISSUES Eastern Equine Encephalitis Human Cases by County by 3-year periods

23 CLIMATE CHANGE: AIR QUALITY Changes in air quality could come from Ground level air pollutants like ozone Changes in Pollen levels Wildfires Health Impacts include: Cardiovascular illness exacerbation Respiratory illness exacerbation Increased allergy-related illnesses

24 PUBLIC HEALTH CURRENT ISSUES

25 PUBLIC HEALTH HEALTH BEHAVIORS Health Behavior or Condition AVG Prevalence of adult eating 5 or more fruits and vegetables (CY2005, 2007, 2009) AVG Prevalence of hypertension among adults (CY2005, 2007, 2009) AVG Prevalence of overweight or obese among adults (CY ) AVG Prevalence of obesity among adults (CY ) Status High (except Hudson, Lincoln) Low (except Bedford, Concord, Lexington, Lincoln) Low (except Bedford, Hudson, Littleton) Low (except Hudson, Littleton) AVG Prevalence of lack of physical activity among adults (CY2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009) Low (except Acton, Hudson, Littleton) Source: All data using quintiles was calculated using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), which is an annual statewide survey of Massachusetts residents. PWTF Appendix A1, October 2013.

26 HEALTH AND WELFARE KEY POINTS Effects will exacerbate health issues with existing health conditions New health issues will emerge (e.g., vectorborne) On average, the MAGIC Subregion is relatively more healthy than the state both in acute and chronic health issues Prevention and surveillance are likely the key activities to maintain assets and resiliency

27 HEALTH AND WELFARE - VULNERABILITY Given this information, what is your impression of the MAGIC Subregion s Vulnerability to climate change impacts?

28 LOCAL ECONOMY AND GOV T

29 LOCAL ECONOMY KEY POINTS The biggest parts of the economy are not likely to be directly impacted Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting, and Construction and other outdoor industries and its employees are likely to be impacted most The Health Care industry in MAGIC will be important in addressing local health needs, especially as these increase with population change and climate change health impacts.

30 MAGIC REGIONAL ECONOMY 7% 8% 4% 9% 3% 1% 1% 1% INDUSTRIES BY EMPLOYMENT 3% 3% 27% 20% Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Trade, Transportation and Utilities Manufacturing Leisure and Hospitality Durable Goods Manufacturing Construction Information Other Services Financial Activities Public Administration Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing Natural Resources and Mining 13% Source: EOLWD ES-202

31 TOP EMPLOYMENT SECTORS Professional and Business Services 27% 28,922 employees Education and Health Services 20% 20,956 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 13% 12,465 Source: EOLWD ES-202

32 LOCAL ECONOMY

33 Percent Change in Wages BOSTON METRO EMPLOYMENT CHANGES % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% -5% -10% -15% Percent Change in Jobs Source: EOLWD ES-202

34 VULNERABILITIES OF THE ECONOMY Natural Resource Dependent Industries Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.5% of businesses.6% of employees Small, but culturally important part of the Economy Industry threatened by changes in precipitation, heat, pest migration Employees threatened by heat, increased pesticide application, potential loss of work if business interruption or related health issues. Source: EOLWD ES-202

35 VULNERABILITIES OF THE ECONOMY Outdoor Industries Construction 7 % of businesses 4% of employees Employees vulnerable to heat impacts from outdoor work, and potential loss of work if business interruption or related health issues from heat, sun exposure, vector-borne diseases. Other industries with outdoor workers include agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting; landscaping. Source: EOLWD ES-202

36 VULNERABILITIES OF THE ECONOMY Health Care Industries Health Services 12% of businesses 6% of employees Health Care Providers in all Towns Lexington, Concord, Sudbury, Bedford, Acton employing the most Stow, Boxborough, Bolton, Carlisle employing the fewest Health care businesses/employees important for meeting current and future health care needs Will need to respond to increased demands of a population that is aging, and will experience health issues from climate change. Source: EOLWD ES-202

37 LOCAL ECONOMY Map

38 LOCAL ECONOMY KEY POINTS The biggest parts of the economy are not likely to be directly impacted Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting, and Construction and other outdoor industries and its employees are likely to be impacted most The Health Care industry in MAGIC will be important in addressing local health needs, especially as these increase with population change and climate change health impacts.

39 LOCAL ECONOMY AND GOV T - VULNERABILITY Given this information, what is your impression of the MAGIC Subregion s Vulnerability to climate change impacts?

40 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Existing and Planned Measures Sources: John Boyd, OARS; Town of Hudson website; Cucurbit Farm, Thomas Cooper

41 QUESTIONS FOR GROUP(S) What does each municipality or set of municipalities have in place that address: Mitigation? Adaptation? Related to the following sectors: 1. Built Environment and Key Infrastructure 2. Natural Resources and Habitat 3. Human Health and Welfare 4. Local Economy and Government

42 EXISTING AND PLANNED MITIGATION AND ADAPTATIONS TABLE Metro Mayors Coalition Climate and Energy Initiatives Note: This spreadsheet was last updated in April 2015 and is currently under revision. The next version will reflect municipal work done since May 2015 and will include the City of Newton, which joined the MMC in Spring Full circle: Completed Empty circle: In progress project or actively planning, for Resiliency : TA Funding, for Green Communities and Solarize : Applicatio Boston Braintree Brookline CambridgeChelsea Everett Malden Melrose Quincy Revere Somerville Winthrop Staffing & Information Energy Committee Municipal Energy Staff Municipal Energy/Climate Website Climate Climate Action Plan GHG Inventory Vulnerability Assessment Stormwater/Flood Planning Hazard Mitigation Plan Funding for Resiliency (CCERI) Project Low Impact Development Eco Districts Climate-Related Tree Initiatives Energy Green Community Municipal Energy Use Baseline MAPC Local Energy Action Plan (LEAP) LED Streetlight Retrofit Municipal Building Retrofit Residential Efficiency Program/Promotion

43 EXISTING AND PLANNED MITIGATION AND ADAPTATIONS TABLE MAGIC Subregion Existing and Planned Mitigation and Adaptations Table Full Square: In place o Empty Square: In progress project or actively planning for MAGIC Municipalities Acton Bedford Bolton Boxborough Carlisle Concord Hudson Lexington Lincoln Littleton Maynard Stow Sudbury Built Environment Public Transport Bike/Pedestrian Plan Complete Streets Policy Building Code Incentives to Build above BFE Stormwater/Flood Planning Stretch Code GHG Inventory Funding for Resiliency (CCERI) Project Low Impact Development Residential or Commercial Rainwater Harvesting Green Community MAPC Local Energy Action Plan (LEAP) Residential Efficiency Program/Promotion Residential Weather/Floodproofing Municipal Building Retrofit Municipal Renewable Energy Natural Resources Open Space and Recreation Plan Streamflow Monitoring/Controals

44 GROUPS FOR DISCUSSION Northern Quadrant Western Quadrant Southern Quadrant Eastern Quadrant

45 MAGIC Climate Resilience Plan Next Steps Sources: John Boyd, OARS; Town of Hudson website; Cucurbit Farm, Thomas Cooper

46 NEXT STEPS Follow up on identified additional data Draft Working Document at end of June Explore model of riverine flooding Advance into Phase II TA to Support Subregional and Municipal Implementation Public Engagement Application of flooding model

47 MAGIC Climate Resilience Plan Thank You! Sources: John Boyd, OARS; Town of Hudson website; Cucurbit Farm, Thomas Cooper