Climate Change - Impacts

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1 Climate Change - Impacts PA and Southeastern PA Jim Wylie Sierra Club Southeastern PA Group

2 Projected Climate Changes in PA

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17 Impacts to PA people & nature

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20 More frequent flooding

21 Increasing Impacts on Agriculture Climate disruptions to agricultural production have increased in the past 40 years and are projected to increase over the next 25 years. By midcentury and beyond, these impacts will be increasingly negative on most crops and livestock.

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23 Higher Tides Along the Delaware River Sea level is rising more rapidly along Pennsylvania s shoreline than in most coastal areas because the Delaware Valley is sinking. If the oceans and atmosphere continue to warm, the tidal portion of the Delaware River is likely to rise one to four feet in the next century. Parts of Philadelphia International Airport and neighborhoods to the north are within two or three feet above the average high tide on the Delaware River. In downtown Philadelphia, Penn s Landing and the Northeast Corridor railroad tracks at 30th Street Station are currently in the 100-year floodplain. Along the Delaware and Schuylkill rivers, a higher sea level could increase the extent of flooding caused by either coastal storms or severe rainstorms, unless communities take measures to hold back the rising rivers.

24 The tidal freshwater wetlands along the Delaware River are likely to capture enough sediment for their land surfaces to keep pace with rising sea level. But both rising sea level and increasing drought enable salt water to mix farther up the Delaware River, which could kill wetland plants. In places where that occurs, wetlands might be replaced by either salttolerant wetland plants or shallow waters. Higher salinity could also create problems for Philadelphia s water supply during droughts, if salty water moves upstream to the city s drinking water intake at Torresdale.

25 Agriculture Changing climate will have both beneficial and harmful effects on farming, but the net effect is unknown. Longer frost-free growing seasons and higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide would increase yields for many crops during an average year, notably soybeans. But increasingly hot summers are likely to reduce yields of corn, Pennsylvania s most important crop. The earlier arrival of spring may increase populations of major crop pests, such as the corn earworm and aggressive weeds. Higher temperatures cause cows to eat less and produce less milk, so a warming climate could reduce the output of milk and beef, which together account for more than one-third of the commonwealth s farm revenues.

26 Human Health Hot days can be unhealthy even dangerous. - heat stroke and dehydration, - ground-level ozone, respiratory problems - increase the length and severity of the pollen season - The risk of some diseases carried by insects may also increase. The ticks that transmit Lyme disease are active when temperatures are above 45 F -the Asian tiger mosquito, a common carrier of West Nile virus.

27 The stakes for Pennsylvania s quality of life, and its very character, are great. If we follow the higher-emissions pathway, during the lifetime of today s kindergartener: Many Pennsylvanian cities can expect dramatic increases in the number of summer days over 90 F, putting vulnerable populations at greater risk of heat-related health effects and curtailing outdoor activity for many individuals. Heat could cause air quality to deteriorate substantially, exacerbating allergies, asthma, and other respiratory diseases. Heat stress on dairy cattle may cause declines in milk production. Yields of native Concord grapes, sweet corn, and favorite apple varieties may decrease considerably as temperatures rise and pest pressures grow more severe. Snowmobiling conditions are expected to disappear from the state as winter snow cover shrinks. Widespread ski resort closures can be expected, despite increased snowmaking, as winters become too warm for snow natural or human-made. Climate conditions suitable for prized hardwood tree species such as black cherry, sugar maple, and American beech are projected to decline or even vanish from the state. Substantial changes in bird life are expected, including loss of preferred habitat for many resident and migratory species.

28 Adaptations We Can Expect

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30 Corn & Soybeans Flourish - moderate climate change will likely increase yields of crops such as corn and soybeans by 5 to 20 percent over the next few decades Corn suffers - the state s prized sweetcorn crop may face reduced yields because of summer heat stress and increased pest and disease outbreaks Grapes & Apples suffer - fruit crops may no longer experience the winter chilling conditions required for optimal fruit production and may also face increased pressures from insect pests. Small Farms & Amish Threatened - The economic pressures will be felt both by large operations and small family farms, potentially threatening traditional livelihoods and unique lifestyles such as those of the Amish