Climate Change Committee Report to UNC-CH Board of Trustees

Transcription

1 Climate Change Committee Report to UNC-CH Board of Trustees November 20, 2008 David Salvesen Lawrence E. Band Phil Berke

2 Report Outline 1. Overview: Global Climate Change and Climate Change in NC a. Overview b. Historical trends and projections c. Major drivers of NC climate 2. Environment a. Water resources, hydrologic extremes b. Sea level rise, coastal surges c. Estuarine and coastal ocean ecosystem health d. Terrestrial ecosystems change in hardiness zones 3. Human health a. Air quality and respiration b. Water quality and infectious diseases c. Extreme events 4. Mitigation and adaptation 5. Policy recommendations and needs for additional research

3 A Primer on Climate Change What are greenhouse gases? F-gases, 1.1% Nitrous oxide, 7.9% Methane, 14.3% Carbon dioxide, deforestation, decay of biomass, etc., 17.3% Carbon dioxide, other, 2.8% Carbon dioxide, fossil fuel use, 56.6%

4 A Primer on Climate Change Where do greenhouse gases come from? Energy supply, 25.9% Transport, 13.1% Residential and commercial buildings, 7.9% Waste and wastewater, 2.8% Industry, 19.4% Forestry, 17.4% Agriculture, 13.5%

5 Four generally accepted tenets of climate change Concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have increased Greenhouse gases tend to warm the earth The earth is warming Climate change and its impacts will be felt very differently in different parts of the world

6 Concentrations of GHGs Have Increased

7 Greenhouse Gases Warm the Earth

8 The Earth is Warming

9 The Earth is Warming

10 Climate Change Impacts Vary by Location Global temperature change trends do not necessarily match trends at regional to local scales 5-year Mean Annual Mean NC and other southeastern states had a much greater temperature decrease from

11 Predicting Future Climate Change Past trends Computer models 5-year Mean Annual Mean Prediction is hard, especially about the future. MT, YB or NB

12 Climate Change Models - GHG Emission Scenarios SRES: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Trendlines represent different scenario families A1 rapid econ. growth, pop. peaks at 2050, rapid tech. increase A1FI fossil-intensive A1T non -fossil energy intensive A1B balance of energy sources B1 same as A1, but more service/info-based economy B2 pop./econ. growth, but local sustainability pursued A2 high pop. growth, but slow econ./tech. growth No additional climate polices assumed in these scenarios

13 Likely Climate Changes in NC Hotter summers, warmer winters More extreme events (droughts, flooding, hurricanes) Rising seas

14 Environmental Impacts

15 Sea Level Rise Elevations in NC < 1 Meter

16 Shift in Plant Hardiness Zones

17 Impacts on Public Health Increasing temperatures could lead to greater: Vector-borne diseases Increased active season for arthropods (e.g. ticks) and other infectious disease vectors Increase in ephemeral water bodies for mosquito breeding

18 Impacts on Public Health Water-borne diseases In general, warmer water favors pathogen survival. Heavier rainfalls can transport of pathogens and contaminate receiving waters. Exposure by direct ingestion, (contaminated shellfish) or through open wounds.

19 Impacts on Public Health Heat related illness Heat waves Vulnerable populations (children, elderly, sick) are most at risk. Power shortage exacerbates risk Respiratory illness (Asthma, allergies) Ozone formation increases during hot, clear conditions Fine particulate matter from roads, forest fires, etc. conditions Both lead to elevated cardio-pulmonary and respiratory illness Warmer weather lengthens pollen season

20 Questions?

21 Preliminary Recommendations Take steps now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, regardless of climate change E.g., promote alternative energy and energy efficiency Collaborate with states in the region to address climate change Review state policies that may either exacerbate global warming or put people at risk Address the needs of vulnerable populations

22 Preliminary Recommendations Strengthen stormwater management policies and regulations Prohibit uses such as junkyards and animal waste lagoons in hazard-prone areas Develop strategies to address sea level rise as well as extreme events (e.g., droughts) Protect natural systems that provide ecosystem benefits (e.g., wetlands and floodplains)