Level King William St Adelaide Australia 5000 T:(08) F: (08) M: E:

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2 EnergyQuartely EnergyQuarterly is an up-to-date, independent and comprehensive 140 page report on Australian oil and gas production, reserves, prices and development projects. Each quarter the report provides: Analysis of current developments in global energy from an Australian perspective. This includes oil and gas prices and LNG developments, including prices. Oil, gas, and liquids production by basin/field and company. Reserves estimates by product, basin/field and company, with maps. Oil and gas resources estimates. Gas price information. Separate estimates of natural gas and ethane production. Australian state gas markets Gas-use for power generation Company production by region and field. Details of oil and gas development projects. Major gas and oil pipelines. PNG oil production by company and field. New Zealand production Overseas production by Australian companies. The report is timely, produced within eight weeks of each quarter end. The report is used by companies for: Board presentations Investor presentations Government presentations Strategy development Gas purchase and sales Liquids purchase and sales Market analysis M&A It is used by governments for: Timely statistics Analysing supply options Ministerial briefing Following company activities Policy development It is used by investors and analysts: Production monitoring Market analysis Earnings forecasting Data from the report is regularly used by major companies in public presentations, as well as internally. Subscribers include Australian and state government agencies and a wide range of energy producers and energy buyers. 2

3 The report is user-friendly, with data provided in easy to read tables and Excel spreadsheet format. Trends and waterfall diagrams highlight recent changes. The data is rigorously cross-checked against other sources. Please let me know if you would like to subscribe to the report or if you would like to see a sample copy Yours sincerely, Graeme Bethune Chief Executive Officer EnergyQuest Energy analysis and strategy. Level 30, 91 King William Street Adelaide Australia 5000 Tel: Fax: Mobile: gbethune@energyquest.com.au ABN: ACN:

4 Sample Contents Preface... 2 List of tables... 6 List of figures... 7 Highlights Overview Fossil fuels not dead yet Global energy prices bottoming? Australian oil production turning up? Weak European/US gas demand, strong in Asia US gas prices strengthening? Strong Asian LNG imports Continuing strong Japanese LNG demand International gas prices The LNG train moves on Gas price convergence? APLNG T2 sanctioned Focus on project execution, with rising costs Lower Australian gas production Lower NEM power demand Rising domestic gas prices East coast gas contract market remains tight Summary tables and charts Reserves and resources Higher APLNG and AGL reserves Coal seam gas reserves Total gas reserves Oil and NGL reserves Australian petroleum resources Papua New Guinea reserves and resources Timor-Leste JPDA reserves and resources New Zealand reserves and resources Australian conventional domestic gas Lower conventional gas production Developments by region and field Northern Territory: new gas contract Western Australia: lower NWS domgas production East coast: offshore project delays and cost increases Cooper Basin production turnaround Victoria/Tasmania Gippsland Basin production down, Kipper gas Longtom production down Otway Basin production down

5 Bass Basin costs up Coal seam gas Full steam ahead in Queensland Companies behind on their drilling targets Current production capacity 20-25% of LNG requirement Queensland development picking up but a long way to go APLNG: two trains underway QCLNG: first plant modules arrive GLNG cost increase Arrow LNG AGL Fisherman s Landing Project (FLLNG) Comet Ridge WestSide Molopo Senex Blue Energy New South Wales still bogged down AGL Dart Energy Santos Metgasco Red Sky Energy Victoria Other LNG projects CSG regulatory and political issues CSG transaction values Unconventional oil and gas Cooper Basin: Moomba 191 success Onshore Victoria Galilee Basin Western Australia Northern Territory Total domestic gas and ethane Steady domestic gas production Ethane West coast LNG LNG production down, notwithstanding Pluto Production Producing projects North West Shelf (NWS) production down Darwin LNG production down Pluto not a dog Pluto expansion challenged Projects under construction Gorgon: over 45% complete, capacity increase to 15.6 Mtpa Wheatstone: Chevron ups its stake Prelude: construction underway Ichthys: Total ups its stake Proposed projects

6 Bonaparte LNG: FEED next year, FID the year after Browse LNG: shuffling the cards Equus: Pluto, NWS or Wheatstone? Scarborough Sunrise: talking again Possible projects Evans Shoal: out of left field PTTEP: encouraging flows Total natural gas and ethane Lower Australian gas production Gas prices Reindeer gas price ~$10/GJ West coast contract prices continue to climb East coast spot price spikes Gas markets and infrastructure Carbon tax boosts otherwise sluggish gas demand Steady gas consumption Higher east coast electricity prices Lower power demand Gas-use in generation up for the quarter but down for the year Carbon tax boosts gas Power station developments Gas pipeline developments Roma Brisbane Pipeline (RBP) LNG pipelines South West Queensland Pipeline (SWQP) Moomba Sydney Pipeline (MSP) Young to Wellington Pipeline Tasmanian Gas Pipeline (TGP) Goldfields Gas Pipeline (GGP) Dampier Bunbury Pipeline Gas storage Gas processing plants Oil Quarterly oil production up due to NWS and Cooper Developments by company and project Liquefied petroleum gas Lower LPG Condensate Lower condensate production Total oil and natural gas liquids Australian oil and liquids production down again Total Australian petroleum production Australian petroleum production down 6.3% in Development projects

7 17. New Zealand Lower New Zealand production Timor-Leste Papua New Guinea Major gas developments by project PNG LNG Oil Search Gulf of Papua InterOil PNG Floating LNG Horizon Data sources and definitions Definitions Comparison with other sources Abbreviations Conversion factors About EnergyQuest Research and Analysis Consulting Energy Supply EnergyQuest Team Terms of use List of tables Table 1 Imports of LNG: United Kingdom (UK), North Asia and US June quarter 2011 and Table 2 Japanese LNG import volumes and prices June quarter 2011 and Table 3 Korean LNG import volumes and prices June quarter 2011 and Table 4 Taiwanese LNG import volumes and prices three months ended May 2011 and Table 5 Chinese LNG and pipeline import volumes and prices June quarter 2011 and Table 6 Change in NEM power generation June quarters 2011 and Table 7 Australian petroleum production by state (annual field units), quarter and year end Table 8 Australian petroleum production by state (daily field units), quarter and year end Table 9 Australian petroleum production by state (metric volumes), quarter and year end Table 10 Australian petroleum production by state (annual energy equivalent), quarter and year end Table 11 Australian CSG reserves (proved and probable) by field, at August Table 12 Queensland 2P CSG reserves by field December 2010 and Table 13 Australian CSG reserves by field, at August Table 14 Australian CSG reserves by proposed LNG project, at August 2012 (PJ) Table 15 Australian proved and probable CSG reserves by company, at August Table 16 Australian CSG reserves and resources by company, at August 2012 (PJ) Table 17 Australian natural gas and ethane 2P reserves by field and basin, at August Table 18 Australian natural gas and ethane 2P reserves by company, at August Table 19 Australian east coast natural gas and ethane 2P reserves, at August Table 20 Australian WA and NT natural gas 2P reserves, at August Table 21 Australian oil and NGL reserves by field, at August Table 22 Australian oil and NGL reserves by company, at August

8 Table 23 Australian petroleum resources by major field, at August Table 24 PNG proved and probable oil reserves, at December 2010 and Table 25 PNG proved and probable gas reserves, at December 2011 and Table 26 PNG 2C petroleum resources, at August Table 27 Timor-Leste JPDA proved and probable oil and NGL reserves by field at August Table 28 Timor Leste proved and probable oil and NGL reserves by company at August Table 29 Timor-Leste JPDA proved and probable gas reserves at August Table 30 New Zealand proved and probable gas reserves by field Table 31 New Zealand proved and probable gas reserves by company Table 32 New Zealand proved and probable oil and condensate reserves by field Table 33 New Zealand proved and probable oil and condensate reserves by company Table 34 Australian conventional domestic gas production by basin and major field, quarter and year end Table 35 Australian conventional domestic gas production by company, quarter and year end Table 36 Australian CSG production by basin and field, quarter and year end Table 37 Australian CSG production by group/company, quarter and year end Table 38 Estimates of recent CSG transaction values based on 3P reserves (EV) Table 39 Australian domestic gas production by basin and major field, quarter and year end Table 40 Australian domestic gas production by company, quarter and year end Table 41 Australian west coast domestic gas production, quarter and year end Table 42 Australian east coast domestic gas production by company, quarter and year end Table 43 Australian domestic gas production, major producers by field, quarter and year end Table 44 Australian ethane production by basin, quarter and year end Table 45 Australian ethane production by company, quarter and year end Table 46 Gross Australian LNG production, quarter and year end Table 47 Net Australian LNG production by basin, quarter and year end Table 48 Australian LNG production by company, quarter and year end Table 49 Australian total natural gas and ethane production by basin and major field, quarter and year end Table 50 Australian total natural gas and ethane production by company, quarter and year end Table 51 Gas price realisations A$/GJ, June quarter 2011 and Table 52 Estimated east coast gas production and consumption, June quarter 2012 (PJ) Table 53 Australian average electricity prices, June quarter 2011 and 2012, $/MWh Table 54 NEM power generation by fuel, quarter and year end Table 55 NEM gas-fired generation and gas use, major stations, quarter and year end Table 56 NEM generation by fuel use, June and July Table 57 Estimated gas use by power station June and July Table 58 Proposed gas-fired power stations, August Table 59 Gas pipelines and east coast gas pipeline flows, June quarter Table 60 Indicative gas pipeline tariffs, August Table 61 Gas processing plants and production, June quarter Table 62 Australian oil production by basin and major field, quarter and year end Table 63 Australian oil production by company, quarter and year end Table 64 Australian LPG production by basin, quarter and year end Table 65 Australian LPG production by company, quarter and year end Table 66 Australian condensate production by basin and major field, quarter and year end Table 67 Australian condensate production by company, quarter and year end Table 68 Australian oil and NGL production by basin and major field, quarter and year end Table 69 Australian oil and NGL production by company, quarter and year end Table 70 Australian petroleum production by basin and major field, quarter and year end Table 71 Australian petroleum production by company, quarter and year end Table 72 Australian and PNG oil, gas and liquids projects under consideration, development or expansion, August Table 73 New Zealand petroleum production, quarter and year end March 2011 and Table 74 New Zealand gross gas production by field, year end 2010 and

9 Table 75 New Zealand gross gas production by parent company, year end 2010 and Table 76 New Zealand crude oil, condensate and naphtha production by field, year end 2010 and Table 77 New Zealand crude oil, condensate and naphtha production by parent company, year end 2010 and Table 78 Timor-Leste petroleum production by product and company, quarter and year end Table 79 PNG oil production by field, quarter and year end Table 80 PNG oil production by company, quarter and year end Table 81 Comparison between EnergyQuest, APPEA and DRET petroleum production estimates List of figures Figure 1 Brent and Tapis spot oil prices, January 2010 to July Figure 2 Australian quarterly oil production March 2010 to June Figure 3 Australian petroleum trade deficit June 2002 to June Figure 4 Henry Hub day ahead gas price, January 2010 to July Figure 5 UK gas price (system average price), January 2010 to August Figure 6 Japan crude cocktail, January 2010 to May Figure 7 International and Australian gas prices, June quarter Figure 8 LNG agreements by project and buyer Mtpa as at August Figure 9 Australian quarterly natural gas and ethane production, March 2010 to June Figure 10 Australian quarterly LNG production (net) March 2010 to June Figure 11 Australian quarterly domestic gas production, March 2010 to June Figure 12 Quarterly west coast gas prices, March 2010 to June Figure 13 Quarterly east coast gas prices, March 2010 to June Figure 14 Australian petroleum production by product, March 2010 to June Figure 15 Change in Australian petroleum production by product, June quarter 2011 and Figure 16 Change in Australian petroleum production by state, June quarter 2011 and Figure 17 Australian 2P CSG reserves, at August Figure 18 Australian 3P CSG reserves, at August Figure 19 Australian 2C CSG resources, at August Figure 20 Australian east coast 2P gas reserves, at August Figure 21 Australian east coast 2C gas resources by operator, at August Figure 22 Australian WA and NT 2P gas reserves, at August Figure 23 WA and NT 2C gas resources by operator, at August Figure 24 Natural gas reserves and contingent resources, Australia, PNG and Timor Leste August Figure 25 Oil and NGL reserves and contingent resources, Australia PNG and Timor Leste August Figure 26 Australian conventional domestic gas production by major producers, March 2010 to June Figure 27 Change in Australian conventional domestic gas production by basin, June 2011 and Figure 28 Change in Australian conventional domestic gas by company, June quarter 2011 and Figure 29 Australian CSG production by major producers, March 2010 to June Figure 30 Change in Australian CSG production by field, June quarter 2011 and Figure 31 Change in Australian CSG production by company, June quarter 2011 and Figure 32 Qld CSG operated development wells drilled since FID Figure 33 Australian domestic gas production by major producers, March 2010 to June Figure 34 Change in Australian domestic gas production by basin, June quarter 2011 and Figure 35 Change in Australian domestic gas production by producer, June quarter 2011 and Figure 36 Australian LNG production March 2010 to June Figure 37 Australian natural gas and ethane production, March 2010 to June Figure 38 Change in Australian natural gas and ethane production by basin, June quarter 2011 and Figure 39 Change in Australian natural gas and ethane production by company, June quarter 2011 and Figure 40 Average weekly spot prices for gas, January 2010 to July Figure 41 Sales gas production and consumption by state, June quarter Figure 42 Average monthly electricity prices January 2010 to July Figure 43 Change in oil production by basin, June quarter 2011 and

10 Figure 44 Australian oil production by major producers, March 2010 to June Figure 45 Change in Australian oil production by company, June quarter 2011 and Figure 46 Australian LPG production by major producer, March 2010 to June Figure 47 Change in Australian LPG production by basin, June quarter 2011 and Figure 48 Change in Australian LPG production by company, June quarter 2011 and Figure 49 Australian condensate production by major producer, March 2010 to June Figure 50 Change in Australian condensate production by basin, June quarter 2011 and Figure 51 Change in Australian condensate production by company, June quarter 2011 and Figure 52 Australian oil and NGL production by major producers, March 2010 to June Figure 53 Change in Australian oil and NGL production by basin, June quarter 2011 and Figure 54 Change in Australian oil and NGL production by company, June quarter 2011 and Figure 55 Australian petroleum production by major producers, March 2010 to June Figure 56 Change in Australian petroleum production by basin, June quarter 2011 and Figure 57 Change in Australian petroleum production by company, June quarter 2011 and Figure 58 Change in Timor-Leste petroleum production by product, June quarter 2011 and Figure 59 Change in PNG oil production by field, June quarter 2011 and

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12 About EnergyQuest EnergyQuest is an energy consulting company established by Dr Graeme Bethune in 2005 to provide strategic analysis on Australian oil, gas and unconventional energy sources. It produces regular multi-client reports and undertakes specific consulting assignments. EnergyQuest is increasingly recognised as an authoritative source of data and analysis on Australian energy and its reports on energy trends are regularly quoted by the major Australian and international news services. The Australian Energy Regulator has made extensive use of EnergyQuest data in their State of the Energy Market Reports since EnergyQuest s clients include most major Australian energy companies, most Australian governments, institutional investors and a number of international companies. EnergyQuest is a member of the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, the Australian upstream oil industry association, and the Australian Pipeline Industry Association. Research and Analysis EnergyQuest produces the EnergyQuarterly, which provides comprehensive and timely statistical analysis of oil and gas production, reserves, development projects, gas contracts and prices in Australia. EnergyQuest also produces two major multi-client studies, Australian Coal Seam Gas, which provides a comprehensive review of east coast Australian CSG and LNG, and Australian Biofuels. These reports are regularly updated. Consulting Energy Supply EnergyQuest has undertaken assignments for major energy producers, buyers and government agencies on the future energy supply and cost outlook and strategic options. LNG EnergyQuest Senior Associate Greg Veitch undertakes assignments on LNG marketing and shipping: Facilitation of large LNG projects (producers or receiving terminals) by connecting projects with potential suppliers /customers. Negotiation of contracts for sale or purchase of LNG. World LNG market supply/demand and strategic direction, including the interplay between pipeline and LNG supply. LNG spot trading. Facilitation of commercial activities relating to LNG shipping (ship charters, ship purchase). Natural Gas EnergyQuest has undertaken many assignments on Australian and international natural gas, including: 12

13 Independent report on gas reserves for a proposed pipeline acquisition. Independent report on gas deliverability for a major gas user. Advice for a NSW power generator on gas supply options. Advice on gas supply options for the Mt Isa minerals province. Gas price forecasts by Australian state to Advice for a major oil and gas company on potential Australian LNG projects. Independent expert report for an east coast gas price arbitration. Projections of future Australian coal seam gas demand and supply for a major resources company. Advice on east coast gas supply options for a major industrial customer. Advice on gas marketing and price options for a potential gas field development. Advice on the outlook for Australian gas (domestic and LNG) for a major resources company. Advice on gas transmission pipelines for an institutional investor. Advice on gas commercialization outlook and options for a proposed east coast gas development. Numerous studies on east coast gas production costs and the outlook for demand, supply and prices. Studies of gas demand and supply in Indonesia and Vietnam. Assessment of domestic gas market interventions in major world gas producing countries. Liquid Fuels EnergyQuest also undertakes consulting on liquid fuels: Studies of Australian transport fuel vulnerability for a major Australian alternative liquid fuel project. Multi-client reports on Australian biofuels. Assessment of an ethanol project for a financier. Comprehensive assessment of the Australian diesel fuel market and import opportunities. Oil price forecasts for a potential liquids project. Market studies for alternative liquids projects. A report for the Australian Government on transport fuel security. Study on the outlook for Australian refineries. EnergyQuest Team Dr Graeme Bethune, CEO, with 30 years experience in economic and financial analysis, 10 years in senior business development and finance roles with Santos and 13

14 founder of EnergyQuest in Graeme ranks in the top 5% of experts in the Gerson Lehrman Energy and Industrials Council, a global network of over 30,000 experts in the energy, transport and industrials sectors, providing advice to investors, professional services firms and companies. Graeme Atwell, Senior Associate, with 40 years experience in power generation and gas contracting and trading with ETSA and Santos. Working with EnergyQuest since Gas supply and marketing specialist. Mike Cochran, Senior Associate, with 30 years experience in oil and petroleum marketing with Santos and mineral marketing with Rio Tinto. Working with EnergyQuest since Specialist in conventional and alternative liquid fuels. Greg Veitch, Senior Associate, 28 years with Shell, with senior roles in LNG marketing, commercial and shipping. Susan Bethune, Executive Manager and co-founder of EnergyQuest, specialist in economic, financial and statistical analysis. Graeme Bethune, Chief Executive Graeme Bethune is CEO of EnergyQuest, a company he established in 2005 to provide energy analysis and strategic advice to companies and governments on Australian oil and gas. Between 1995 and 2005 Graeme held senior executive positions with Santos, one of Australia s leading energy companies, with responsibilities for finance, business development and investor relations. Graeme is the lead author of two regular EnergyQuest reports, EnergyQuarterly and Australian Coal Seam Gas. Graeme also undertakes regular consulting assignments on Australian oil and gas. He is regularly asked to speak at energy conferences in Australia and Asia and his comments are regularly sought by the domestic and international media. Graeme represents Australia on a number of international study groups of the International Gas Union and is currently leading a multinational group of industry analysts undertaking research on the impact of unconventional gas on the Asia Pacific gas market. He is a Director of the Australian Gas Industry Trust. In this capacity he was a member of the Australian delegation to the World Gas Conference in 2009 and He is also a member of the National Organising Committee for the LNG18 Conference to be held in Perth in Graeme has a first-class honours degree in economics from Monash University and a PhD from the Australian National University. He has undertaken the executive program at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, is a fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors and the Australian Society of Certified Practising Accountants and is a member of the US Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) and the Australian Institute of Energy. Graeme Atwell, Senior Associate Graeme is an engineer with over 40 years of experience in the energy industry in Australia, primarily in gas and power. 14

15 Since joining EnergyQuest in 2007, Graeme has advised both gas users and producers on strategic and commercial issues. He has also acted as an independent expert in gas price arbitrations. For over 30 years, Graeme operated in a diverse range of roles in the electricity generation industry in South Australia. This included power station design, operation and maintenance, coal mining and purchasing and trading of gas for electricity generation. Between 2001 and 2007, Graeme was employed by Santos in key commercial roles. This included marketing and commercialisation of gas from the Cooper Basin, including the sale of 500PJ of gas (over $2 billion) to AGL in 2002, major ethane sales to Qenos in Sydney, and negotiation and establishment of Australia s first major gas swap agreement which enabled Queensland CSM to be contractually supplied to Sydney markets. Within Santos, Graeme was also responsible for commercialisation of Santos Timor Sea assets and played a key role in the project to bring PNG gas to Australia. In his role with EnergyQuest Graeme has advised clients on gas commercialization opportunities and gas purchase options. He has also participated in numerous assessments of the demand and supply outlook for Australian domestic gas. Graeme has a Bachelor of Technology (Mechanical Engineering) degree from the University of Adelaide. In support of Graeme s commercial and contractual responsibilities he also completed a Professional Certificate in Arbitration and Mediation. Graeme is a member of the Australian Institute of Energy, and the Institute of Arbitrators and Mediators. Mike Cochran, Senior Associate Mike Cochran has been working with EnergyQuest since 2005 and specialises in conventional and alternative liquid fuels. Previously Mike held senior commercial and marketing positions with some of the world s largest resource and petroleum organisations, including Santos, Rio Tinto and BHP. During 22 years with Santos, Mike was responsible for marketing Santos s petroleum liquids, crude oil, LPG, condensate and naphtha in international markets. He was also responsible for business improvement initiatives such as splitting condensate/naphtha for the Asian petrochemical and Hong Kong town gas markets, and inland production of diesel fuel. Mike has a Bachelor of Economics from Sydney University and a postgraduate Diploma of Oil Supply and Refining from the University of Oxford. During the past eight years, Mike has presented at national and international forums on condensate, naphtha, LPG and biofuels. Greg Veitch Senior Associate Greg Veitch is a leading expert in LNG marketing, commercial and shipping. He worked in the Shell organization for 28 years and was a Director of four Shell or Shell joint venture companies and Chairman of the North West Shelf Shipping Services Company. 15

16 He has extensive experience in LNG marketing, leading negotiations for several long-term contracts in Asia and numerous spot contracts in Asia and the USA. He has purchased LNG from Asian and Middle East suppliers. Greg was also involved in the project development of the North West Shelf, Gorgon and Sunrise projects. Since January 2007 Greg has been an independent consultant. In this role he was Vice President LNG Supply at NorthernStar NG between February 2007 and April 2010, and developed LNG supply opportunities for the proposed Bradwood Landing LNG terminal in Oregon in the United States. During the period January to July 2012, Greg consulted to Apache Energy on sales of LNG from the proposed Kitimat LNG Project in Canada into Japan. Greg has also consulted to Silver Metals Pty Ltd., Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Orange Capital and Mt Kellet. With EnergyQuest Greg has undertaken assignments on the interaction between Australian LNG projects and domestic gas markets including Coal Seam Gas supply for LNG projects in Queensland and its potential impacts on domestic gas supply and pricing. He has participated in the production of the EnergyQuest CSG Reports of 2011 and Outside of the oil and gas industry Greg has had extensive experience in project development for Shell Metals (Worsley Alumina) and in business planning for Shell Coal. He has also been involved in Shell Corporate activities (human resources). Prior to Shell Greg worked with Nabalco Alumina Pty Ltd and Broken Hill Associated Smelters in a technical role. Susan Bethune, Executive Manager Susan Bethune is a partner in EnergyQuest, responsible for market data and analysis. She is an expert on energy market data and modelling, including energy prices, production and reserves. Susan has created and maintains the databases used in EnergyQuest s EnergyQuarterly reports and has undertaken numerous projects for clients wanting customised data series. Susan has 35 years experience in economic and financial analysis with the Australian Government (Australian Bureau of Statistics and Productivity Commission), the corporate and finance sectors, and the tertiary education sector (University of Adelaide and University of South Australia). 16

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