Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Megan Walker UF Office of Sustainability

Transcription

1 Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Megan Walker UF Office of Sustainability

2 Climate Change Communication Strategies John Oliver on Climate Change:

3 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies: beyond education 1. Understanding there is a problem 2. Developing solutions to that problem 3. Enacting those solutions Barriers: diverse stakeholder needs, power disparities & resilience/buffering, inertia & status quo

4 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies Different approaches for different populations Education level vs climate change opinion vs ideological orientation bought in ~69% not bought in ~31% Environmental Social Economic

5 Earth s Climate History Human civilization Data: ice cores and proxies Causes and rates of past climate change Abrupt climate change YD and PETM

6 Abrupt PETM CC - Methane Influx? Lake near Fairbanks, AK Methane hydrates common in arctic areas lakes, continental margins, and permafrost

7 Temperature and [CO2] Climate has changed in the past Climate will change in the future So what s the big deal? Temperature change (blue) and carbon dioxide change (red) observed in Vostok ice core records

8 Modern Climate Change and [CO2] Modern climate change: 10x faster than during PETM

9 Causes of Modern Climate Change

10 Possible Futures - Climate Under different emissions scenarios/trajectories: Patterns of change similar Magnitudes vary Unavoidable, irreversible climate changes - IPCC

11 Climate Change: Not Just About Averages

12 Observed Changes to Averages Change in average temperature and precip across the US vs Anyone born after 1985 has not experienced a year when the global temperature was below 20 th century average half of the world s population!

13 Observed Changes Global Temps Ocean temps influence land temps Thermal inertia and heat storage 2014 ocean temp records May Nov all tied or surpassed Regional vs global trends and obs

14 Observed Changes to Extremes - Precip When it rains, it pours Percent changes in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (the heaviest 1%) from 1958 to 2012 for each region Trends in river flooding (1920s 2008)

15 Observed Changes to Extremes - Temps Larger trend at night More warm days and nights Fewer cold days and nights

16 Societal Impacts of Climate Change Ocean productivity Disease range spread Pest range spread Human health allergies, sewer overflows, wildfire smoke, heat stress

17 Societal Impacts of Climate Change Ocean productivity Disease range spread Pest range spread Human health allergies, sewer overflows, wildfire smoke, heat stress

18 Societal Impacts of Climate Change Ocean productivity Disease range spread Pest range spread Human health allergies, sewer overflows, wildfire smoke, heat stress

19 Societal Impacts of Climate Change Ocean productivity Disease range spread Pest range spread Human health allergies, sewer overflows, wildfire smoke, heat stress

20 Societal Impacts of Climate Change Ocean productivity Disease range spread Pest range spread Human health allergies, sewer overflows, wildfire smoke, heat stress 2010: 15-25,000 deaths - Russia 2003: 35-70,000 deaths - Europe

21 Crop yield Sea level and storm surge Societal Impacts of Climate Change Water availability snowpack, precip patterns, population change Energy demand cooling Consecutive dry days vs

22 Crop yield Sea level and storm surge Societal Impacts of Climate Change Water availability snowpack, precip patterns, population change Energy demand cooling

23 Crop yield Sea level and storm surge Societal Impacts of Climate Change Water availability snowpack, precip patterns, population change Energy demand cooling

24 Crop yield Sea level and storm surge Societal Impacts of Climate Change Water availability snowpack, precip patterns, population change Energy demand cooling

25 Crop yield Sea level and storm surge Societal Impacts of Climate Change Water availability snowpack, precip patterns, population change Energy demand cooling

26 Environmental Impacts of Climate Change Ocean acidification and temperature increase (e.g. algae and krill stress, coral bleaching, low shell calcification), range shifts Land range shifts, arctic habitat destruction, phenological asynchrony, invasive species domination Margins- saltwater intrusion, coastal inundation, habitat destruction Extinction

27 Environmental Impacts of Climate Change Ocean acidification and temperature increase (e.g. algae and krill stress, coral bleaching, low shell calcification), range shifts Land range shifts, arctic habitat destruction, phenological asynchrony, invasive species domination Margins- saltwater intrusion, coastal inundation, habitat destruction Extinction

28 Environmental Impacts of Climate Change Ocean acidification and temperature increase (e.g. algae and krill stress, coral bleaching, low shell calcification), range shifts Land range shifts, arctic habitat destruction, phenological asynchrony, invasive species domination Margins- saltwater intrusion, coastal inundation, habitat destruction Extinction

29 Environmental Impacts of Climate Change Ocean acidification and temperature increase (e.g. algae and krill stress, coral bleaching, low shell calcification), range shifts Land range shifts, arctic habitat destruction, phenological asynchrony, invasive species domination Margins- saltwater intrusion, coastal inundation, habitat destruction Extinction

30 Environmental Impacts of Climate Change Ocean acidification and temperature increase (e.g. algae and krill stress, coral bleaching, low shell calcification), range shifts Land range shifts, arctic habitat destruction, phenological asynchrony, invasive species domination Margins- saltwater intrusion, coastal inundation, habitat destruction Extinction

31 Cascading Impacts Trophic Cascade How Whales Change Climate:

32 Choose Your Own Climate Adventure Climate change already in pipeline unavoidable Tipping points and feedback loops Time sensitive

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