Mid-term Adequacy Forecast of the Czech Republic ČEPS 08/2016

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1 Mid-term Adequacy Forecast of the Czech Republic ČEPS 08/2016

2 Mid-term Adequacy Forecast (MAF CZ) According to Regulation (EC) No 714/2009 ENTSO-E shall adopt the European generation adequacy outlook (SO&AF, MAF) build on the National adequacy outlook Assessment for next 5-15 years National adequacy outlook should be prepared by TSO (ČEPS in CZ) Stakeholders Relevant data National adequacy outlook ČEPS data methodology Pan-EU adequacy outlook ENTSO-E

3 The purpose of the MAF CZ Internal and external needs of ČEPS (periodical outlooks) Internal middle-term operational planning External measures (infrastructure, tools, ) Risk assessment of electrical energy balance probabilistic approach To provide consistent data for generation adequacy assessment To ensure higher interface among the current reports (DOP, MOP, ENTSO-E,...) Development of own consumption model To ensure up to date the national generation mix forecast in line with assumptions of the State Energy Policy and EU policy

4 Internal documents/processes ČEPS The purpose of MAF CZ DOP MOP YOP Development plans Generation Adequacy Legend: YOP Annual operation plan MOP Monthly operation plan DOP Daily operational plan SEP State Energy Policy of the Czech Republic NAP SG National Action Plan for Smart Grids LT Long-term OTE Market operator in CZ External documents ENTSO-e Outlooks (SOAF, TYNDP) LT Balance OTE SEP, NAP SG year years years Disp.order acc. Regulation 714/2009 acc. Energy Act (OTE)

5 Methodology development Development of generation adequacy methodology: ENTSO-E switches SO&AF to MAF, The new report MAF focuses on Europe-wide assessment Probabilistic approach (weather impact on RES) Hourly resolution Stronger emphases on cross-border capacities Larger range of indicators: Energy Not Supplied or Unserved Energy, Loss Of Load Event,.. Focus on flexibility requirement Recommendation for the MAF CZ (report for DG energy) Apply the Target methodology according to ENTSO-E Use the same database

6 Mid-term Adequacy Forecast National adequacy outlook contains: Development of electrical energy balance at least for next 10 years Assessment of generation portfolio in two scenarios (according to the State Energy conception) Probabilistic methods and simulations (according ENTSO-E methodology) Results and indicators Proposal of preventive measures ČEPS statement for stakeholders Generation capacities Yearly loads Temperature dependency Consumption outlook RES dependencies Simulation & Analysis Results, indicators Preventive measures Statement Climate data Hydro, wind,.. Net transfer capacity Operation reserves Others

7 ENTSO-E s results SO&AF 2015 for CZ For the SO&AF the deterministic approach was used The below chart shows the lowest level of power balance in every single month published by ENTSO-E

8 Inputs Consumption and load CEPS s demand model Annual consumption forecast Based on correlation of: Electricity consumption growth GDP growth rate EEN grow rate Two consumption scenarios were calculated (A and B) regarding different GDP growth and impact of other factors Load forecast Input: Historical loads and forecasted consumptions Forecasted demand loads

Inputs Installed capacity - RES The net generating capacity (NTC) outlook According to the ENTSO-E methodology RES slower introduction against the

9 Inputs Installed capacity - RES The net generating capacity (NTC) outlook According to the ENTSO-E methodology RES slower introduction against the State energy conception Note: PVPP photovoltaic power plant, VPP wind power plant, NAP The National action plan for RES, SEP The State Energy Policy

10 Inputs Installed capacity Fossil+Nuclear The net generating capacity outlook according to the ENTSO-E methodology

11 Simulations - variations One simulation in 2020 due to predictable generation capacity Simulations were done in three variations for 2025 Risk of unavailability: Nuclear power plant Dukovany (2,040 MW) Year Peak load Consumption Balance Import (+) Export (-) Variation ,493 MW 67.6 TWh TWh 2025 (a) 10,664 MW 68.7 TWh TWh Normal state 2025 (b) 10,664 MW 68.7 TWh 3.6 TWh 2025 (c) 10,664 MW 68.7 TWh 0.0 TWh Unavailability of nuclear power plant (NPP) Dukovany, this NPP is not substitutedby a respective output; substantial import balance. Unavailability of NPP Dukovany, this NPP is not substitutedby a respective output, and simultaneously the final CZ balance is zero.

Results and indicators ENS, LOLE 2020 2025 (a) 2025 (b) 2025 (c) ENS (GWh) LOLE (hours) ENS -Energy Not

12 Results and indicators ENS, LOLE (a) 2025 (b) 2025 (c) ENS (GWh) LOLE (hours) ENS -Energy Not Supplied or Unserved Energy (MWh/year) LOLE -Loss Of Load Event (hour/year) LOLP - Loss Of Load Probability (%)

13 Results and indicators findings Due to expired lifetime of some generation capacities LOLE reached 30 h in 2025 variation 2025(a) In the case of low production of RES in combination with higher failure rate od fossil fueled generation Operative imports can solve ENS (max. import 500 MW) Influence of unavailability of the Dukovany NPP in variants 2025(b) and (c) All indicators reached very high values (e. g. LOLE 1,130 1,300 h) Operative imports increased to 1,000 MW in comparison with var. 2025(a) Availability of such a high import cross-border capacity is in question In the case of low production of RES in combination with higher failure rate of fossil fueled generation the required import could reach 2,500 MW

14 Results statement & measures Major risks are following: The decline in the surplus of generation capacity Phase-out of coal generation: NTC -25 % Operation of nuclear power plants (NPP) and its condition for long time operation Increased share of RES and decentralized generation Flexible demand and availability of ancillary services A necessary condition to ensure reliable operation of the ES CR up to 2025: To extend the lifespan of the Dukovany NPP, at least at the level of 50 years

15 Results statement & measures Recommendation for further analysis: More detailed development of scenarios and to asses potential risks caused by the possible limited availability of the Dukovany NPP in combination with varying levels of integration of RES and decentralised generation To asses flexibility of demand side response and decentralized generation and its influence on balancing the sudden power changes To verify the hypothesis on sufficient amount of certified volumes, especially in relation to the results for the scenarios 2025 (b) and (c) Annually publish the Mid-term Adequacy Forecast of the Czech Republic

16 Well unbundled connectivity ČEPS, a.s, Elektrárenská 774/2, Prague 10

Mid-term Adequacy Forecast of the Czech Republic

Mid-term Adequacy Forecast of the Czech Republic Elaborated by: Department 13200 - Providing system services Research team CP GATE CEPS, a.s. Elektrárenská 774/2 101 52 Prague 10 Date of issue: 30. 8.