Water management challenges in the Indo-Gangetic plain

Transcription

1 Water management challenges in the Indo-Gangetic plain Jimmy O Keeffe September 2016

2 Talk overview Overview of India's water resource problems The challenges facing water management CHANSE project working towards solutions

3 Water security Green revolution: large scale land use change Improvements in technology (irrigation, seed variety, fertiliser) ( Increase in irrigated area and irrigation intensity ET from irrigation (Boucher et al., Climate Dynamics, 2004)

4 Water security

5 Water security a b New Delhi a Tiwari et al 2009, b Rodell 2009,, c Macdonald et al 2016 c

6 Data Collec4on Semi-structured interviews with approximately 200 farmers in Jalaun, Sitapur, Sultanpur & Hamirpur ParBcipants farmers growing rice and/or wheat 50 farmers interviewed in each district in randomly selected villages (photo by S. Swarnkar) Conducted through translators All interviews audio recorded & GPS locabons taken

7 Data Collec4on

8 Data Collec4on

9 Data Collec4on

10 Significant challenges due to scale, bio biophysical complexity and the dynamics of its institutional and socioeconomic characteristics Challenges Impact on ecosystem services J.O Keeffe Imbalance between water demand and seasonal availability Lack of regulations and governance Hindustan times

11 Working towards a solu4on CHANSE framework for holistic understanding of complex dynamics of the human-natural system Water end users (agriculture, urban environments, river ecology, fisheries and biodiversity) CHANSE framework for decision making support Human-natural system (river stages, sediment characteristics and groundwater levels) Scenario constraints (climate variability, policy and techno-economic factors)

12 Working towards a solu4on Datasets Irrigation and urban water use drivers Ecological flow and water use thresholds Modelling tools Socio-hydrological systems Water management strategies Improved estimations Surface water and groundwater fluxes Short-term weather predictions and recycled precipitation

13 Working towards a solu4on Providing information for improved decision-making on water allocation Explicit accounting for drivers of water demand Internal integration of human systems into hydrological simulations Use of subseasonal and seasonal forecasts for water allocation Identification of thresholds in water requirements and availability

14 Working towards a solu4on Hydroflux India Hydrometeorological feedbacks and changes in water storage and fluxes in Northern India Resolving major fluxes in the Ganges basin

15 Aims Working towards a solu4on Reconstruc4on of historical land-use dynamics Historical satellite imagery Land-use and socio-economic trends Integrated hydro-climate modelling Coupled groundwater surface water model Feedbacks with a global climate model Simula4ng past and future trends Groundwater availability Changes in extreme events

16 Working towards a solu4on Hydro-economic modelling framework Informed and driven through field work Y₁ I₁ S₁ Y₁ I₁ S₁ Y ₂ Y₃ I₂ I₃ S₂ S₃ Y ₂ Y₃ I₂ I₃ S₂ S₃ Y₄ I₄ S₄ Y₄ I₄ S₄ C₁ C₂ C₃ C₄ Crop Price Energy Cost FerBlizer Cost PorBon of income saved. If savings above threshold, % of farmers move to different category for next year C₁ C₂ C₃ C₄ Crop Price Energy Cost FerBlizer Cost PorBon of income saved. If savings above threshold, % of farmers move to different category for next year t₁ t₂ t₂ t₃

17 Working towards a solu4on Gandak barrage regulates flow into the Indian plains Water use for agriculture and fisheries Groundwater-dependant urban water supply

18 Working towards a solu4on Imperial College London Ana Mijic Wouter Buytaert; Kaveh Madani Jimmy O Keeffe University of Exeter Slobodan Djordjevic Diego Gomez; Dragan Savic Simon Moulds British Geological Survey Chris Jackson Alan MacDonald; Dan Lapworth Johanna Scheidegger IIT Bombay Subimal Gosh, Subhankar Karmakar Arpita Mondal IISc Bangalore Predeep Mujumdar IITM Pune Roxy Mathew Koll ATREE Jagdish Krishnaswamy Nachiket Kelkar T.M. Bhagalpur University in Bihar Sunil Kumar Choudhary

19 Working towards a Jimmy O Keeffe Ana Mijic