Water and Climate Change
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1 Water and Climate Change Building Community Consensus for a Sustainable Future for Iowa and the World Kristie J. Franz Jean Goodwin Bill Gutowski Chris Rehmann Bill Simpkins Leigh Tesfatsion Al Wanamaker Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Economics, English, and Civil, Construction & Environmental Eng. 1
2 Water and Climate Change Sustainable water through community interactions and integrated modeling of the human-natural system. 2
3 Water and Climate Change Goal: Evaluate impact of climate change on regional water resources and human responses to the associated changes and uncertainties. Merge existing methods of Iterative Participatory Modeling (IPM) with Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). Build tools that will allow researchers and decision makers to assess the complete watershed system. Pilot Study: Squaw Creek Watershed (Ames, Iowa) 3
4 It s a watershed with. communities governments people a water cycle - rain and snow - soil water - groundwater - surface flows - evapotranspiration natural and man-made ecosystems It s not just a river. a history Wisconsinan glaciation Pre-Illinoian glaciation natural resources and a future 4
5 Water Resource Studies Fail to consider the system holistically. Human influence ignored. Hydrologic system treated as a series of parts, rather than as a complete cycle. Fail to treat systems as dynamic. Human behaviors do not evolve. Climate and land use remain unchanged in time. 5
6 Typical Hydrologic Modeling Study Researcher tweaks scenarios analyses output Hydrologic Model Squaw Creek Watershed Results Z z z Public Stakeholders Researchers 6
7 Agent-based modeling with IPM Researchers Tweaks Scenario analysis Climate Models Hydrologic Model Iterate Agent-Based Models Sustainability Squaw Creek watershed Stakeholders Decisions 7
8 WACC Team Stakeholder interaction Jean Goodwin, English/Speech Communication Juliana Nnoko Mewanu, GRA, Sociology Agent-based modeling Leigh Tesfatsion, Economics Yu Jie, GRA, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Climate and Hydrologic Modeling William J. Gutowski, Jr., Geological and Atmospheric Sci. Alan Wanamaker, Geological and Atmospheric Sci. Kristie Franz, Geological and Atmospheric Sci. Chris R. Rehmann, Civil, Construction & Environ. Engineering William W. Simpkins, Geological and Atmospheric Sci. David Dziubanski, GRA, Geological and Atmospheric Sci. 8
9 Step 1: Build conceptual models Hydrologic & human systems models. Stakeholders included from start. 9
10 Step 2: Build computational model Hydrologic and climate information to agent models, agent decisions to hydrologic model and other agents. 10
11 Agent Interaction with Other Agents Agent Attributes: Static: name,. Dynamic: memory, resources, neighbors.. Methods: Behaviors Behaviors that modify behaviors Update rules for attributes Agent Interactions with the Environment 11 Macal and North, 2010
12 Agents in Squaw Creek watershed Climate Other development Development in floodplain Eng. firms Iowa Flood Center Ames developers Precipitation Infiltration Flood mitigation actions Flood modeling ISU researchers Groundwater Evapotranspiration Runoff Streamflow Storm sewers Farming practices Flooding Tile drains CRP land Farmers Farm Bureau Iowa DNR Crop prices SCW Coalition Rain barrels IOWAter SCWMA ISU ISU Extension Bridge crossings Permanent residents Ames businesses & Chamber of Commerce 12 ISU students City Council Ames WPCD Ames Planning & Zoning Neighborhood groups Downstream communities
13 WACC Long-Term Goals Outcome Empirically-based decision tool to guide sustainable development of water resources. Expand spatial and temporal scales Regional, national, paleoclimate, climate change adaptation. Commercialization? Funding programs NSF, Water and Climate Sustainability, Socio- Environmental Synthesis Center, Sustainable Research Networks, Coupled Natural and Human Systems. DOE, USDA, NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program. 13
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