Modeling and Analysis of Life Cycle Cost for (LCC) Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Conventional Combustion Engine Vehicles

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1 601 A publcaton of CHEMICAL ENGINEERING TRANSACTIONS VOL. 46, 2015 Guest Edtors: Peyu Ren, Yanchang L, Hupng Song Copyrght 2015, AIDIC Servz S. r. l., ISBN ; ISSN The Italan Assocaton of Chemcal Engneerng Onlne at www. adc. t/cet DOI: /CET Modelng and Analyss of Lfe Cycle Cost for (LCC) Battery Electrc Vehcles (BEVs) and Conventonal Combuston Engne Vehcles Jamn Fang Branch of Accountng, Jln Busness and Technology College, Changchun, , PR Chna. ccfjm@sna.com In order to predct, analyze and compare the LCC for battery electrc vehcles and conventonal combuston engne vehcles, provde support for the decson of desgn, polcy, market strategy of vehcles, as well as the procurement decson as perspectve of consumers, ths paper creates a LCC model for the vehcles. Both BEVs and conventonal combuston engne vehcles are then evaluated wth ths model for LCC of dfferent phase of vehcles lfe cycle. 1. Introducton Peak ol and clmate change are the most crtcal ssues n the world, both of them are complcated because of mpactng to energy securty. The fossl fuels consumpton n the transport and power sectors accounted for about 59% of greenhouse gas emssons n 2004 n Amerca. The use of clean energy wll be the motlty of ndustry development. Due to excessve energy consumpton and serous envronmental polluton, the developmental space of conventonal combuston engne vehcles ndustry s lmted. BEVs are the most effcent replacement of conventonal combuston engne vehcles due to varous reasons from envronmental ssues to economc aspects (Shekh et al., 2013). The mportance of envronmental mpacts of dfferent vehcles was hghlghted and effectve polcy for mtgatng the envronmental mpacts by personal transportaton was proposed (Troy, Ola and Anders, 2012). At present, new energy vehcles as an mportant product development drecton of automoble ndustry are becomng an alternatve to conventonal combuston engne vehcles whle the BEVs are the most popular type n the degree of ndustralzaton. BEVs have been equpped wth necessary condtons for market development, such as techncal level and the macro polcy level. Whle hgh cost s the most crtcal ssue to be solved to acheve ndustry scale development. Lfe cycle cost (LCC) can dentfy the accumulatve cost n the product desgn, producton, use, waste dsposal and other phases from the economc perspectve of decson makers, and try to reduce the total cost. Based on the combnaton of lfe cycle assessment and LCC analyss, envronmental mpact caused by actvtes of the enterprses can be mnmzed and cost management can be more effectvely. LCC s accumulated cost of the products from the concept desgn stage to product dsposal stage. BEVs consumers wll take the safety, relablty and mantenance capablty nto consderaton. Furthermore, the LCC of BEVs s becomng more and more mportant. Therefore, BEVs manufacturers must desgn avalable, relable, safe and cost compettve products. At present, the LCC of vehcles were studed and acheved remarkable results. However, the vehcles LCC study n Chna s stll n the prmary stage. Chna has put forward the LCC of the vehcles as mportant economc ndcators for the evaluaton of vehcle capablty. The lterature was carred out study on vehcles LCC for several felds. The methodology for evaluatng LCC of BEVs for ther buyers was presented wth detal evaluaton on major systems such as battery, motor and chasss (Vyas, Cuenca and Ganes, 1998). The model for the vehcle, fuel cells, battery and motor was establshed, and then computer smulaton was developed to overall vehcle desgn n order to evaluate the LCC of the fuel cell hybrd vehcles wth the smulaton result (Kw and Byeong, 2002). A lot of powertran desgns were evaluated wth a computer tool named THEPS, and LCC for powertran n dfferent operatonal envronment was calculated (Jonas, 2007). LCC for dfferent stage of Plug-n Hybrd Vehcles was evaluated and some proposal from polcy pont of vew was provded (Constantne and Kyle, 2008). The economcal Please cte ths artcle as: Fang J.M., 2015, Modelng and analyss of lfe cycle cost for (lcc) battery electrc vehcles (bevs) and conventonal combuston engne vehcles, Chemcal Engneerng Transactons, 46, DOI: /CET

2 602 feasblty of hydrogen as compettve transportaton fuel usng a LCC methodology was dentfed. The cost reducton factors n the lfe cycle were found and effectve strateges for hydrogen becomng the compettve transportaton fuel were fnally devsed (Lee et al., 2009). A LCC analyss method was proposed based on product structural tree, and then software was created to analyze and manage the LCC (Tang, 2010). An optmzaton model wth ntegraton of the physcal vehcles, battery degradaton data, and drvng data of Amerca was developed n order to dentfy optmal vehcle desgns (Chng-Shn et al., 2010). The modelng of vehcles materal LCC wth extended LCC evaluaton from manufacturng stage to use and end of lfe stage was created. Furthermore, cost senstvty analyss was carred out (Wtk et al., 2011). BEVs would play a key role n decreasng crude ol consumpton, easng global warmng trend, and reducng dependency on ol mportaton n the transportaton sector (Orkun and Jeremy, 2013). An evaluaton model was created for the LCC evaluaton. The LCC of an HEV wth present value analyss theory (PVAT) was calculated (Ln, 2013). The desgn of vehcles systems was optmzed va vehcle smulaton software ADVISOR. The LCC of dfferent vehcles was evaluated. The sgnfcance of the operaton condtons, the conflct between effcency and LCC n vehcles desgn was hghlghted (João and Carla, 2014). A LCC model for rollng stocks was developed va VBA software to calculate LCC of varous rollng stocks n mantenance phase (Fang and J, 2015). The ncremental exhaust emssons mpacts and the use cost of non-plug-n and plug-n lght-duty vehcles were evaluated n the lfe cycle (Savlle and MacLean, 2015). Creaton of the model, market dffuson and so on pure theory analyss was carred out to LCC of BEVs. In order to analyze and compare of the LCC between BEVs and conventonal combuston engne vehcles, reduce the costs of BEVs, promote the ndustralzaton of new energy vehcles, we create LCC model for BVEs n fve phases. The nfluence of BEVs and conventonal combuston engne vehcles to external envronmental s taken nto account to create the external envronmental cost model n the use stage. Emprcal analyss s carred out to the LCC of the specfc type of the BEVs and conventonal combuston engne vehcles. Feasble suggestons are promoted for the scale development of BEVs ndustry at last. 2. Modelng for LCC of BEVs Promoted by Chnese energy conservng and emssons reducng polces, BEVs have gradually become one of the contentons coppng wth the energy crss. The BEVs are the vehcles system takes the batteres as energy storage unts, such as nckel cadmum batteres, lead-acd batteres, nckel metal hydrde batteres and lthum on battery and electrc motor as a drve system. The work breakdown structure of BEVs can be created based on PST (Product Structure Tree). The Product Structure Tree s used to descrbe the layer structure of product, component and part whch can show the functonal layer structure and constructonal relatonshp. Accordng to the structure and functon of product characterstcs, the basc structure of BEVs s manly composed of four subsystems named car body subsystem, electrc power drve sub system, energy system sub system and auxlary sub system. Each system conssts of ts modules and parts. Each sub system can be broken down based on the requrements of the LCC evaluaton. The car body sub system ncludes car body structure, frame and buffer. The electrc drve sub system ncludes an electronc power, power converter, electrc motor, mechancal drve devce and wheels. The energy sub system ncludes an energy source, energy unt and energy control unt. The auxlary sub system ncludes power steerng unt, temperature control unt and auxlary power supply unt. Modelng of LCC of BEVs can be created from two aspects. The frst one s from the manufacturer's perspectve. It manly ncludes development, desgn, manufacturng, sales, repar, mantenance and dsposal costs of BEVs; the second one s from the external envronmental perspectve. The mpact to the envronment s also taken nto consderaton measured by cost. The dsposal cost of BEVs s one part of the costs n LCC. In conventonal producton mode, dsposal costs are borne by the socety and the envronment whch means the socety and the envronment wll bear the envronmental damage costs caused by scrap costs and envronmental costs. The scrap costs are manly the costs for waste dsposal, recyclng after products and ther packagng s waste dsposal. LCC of BEVs shall nclude not only the actual loss pad by enterprses, customers and socety, shall also nclude the ntangble loss of socal resources n each stage. Therefore, ths paper dvdes lfe cycle of the BEVs nto 5 stages named development stage, manufacturng stage, logstcs stage, use stage and repar stage based on manufacturer s perspectve combnng the characterstcs of BEVs and the lfe cycle theory. 5 LCC sub models are created for 5 lfe cycle stage. Ths paper does not take the varous taxes, traffc punshment, parkng, vehcle s decoraton and washng costs nto account n the because of uncertan expendture whch would be smlar between smlar vehcles. The scrap costs are also gnored for mssng the exact fgure whch would be a further study feld. 2.1 Cost model of development phase The cost of research and development are mportant ndex to reflect the enterprse's technologcal nnovaton ablty and fundamental guarantee of the enterprse techncal nnovaton. The research and development cost

3 603 nclude market research cost, feasblty studes cost, product desgn cost, product preproduct cost and product test cost. The cost of research and development s Cdevelop as below. Cdevelop Cresearch C feasb Cdesgn Cprepro Ctest 2.2 Cost model of manufacturng phase Cost of manufacturng phase s composed by materal procurement cost and vehcle producton cost. Materal procurement cost majorly refers to the cost of raw materals. The vehcles producton cost ncludes the manufacturng cost of the parts and assembly cost. Thus, LCC model of BEVs n manufacturng stage can be expressed below. Nmateral N part Nassem C ( P Q ) C C product materal, materal, part, assem, 1 Pmateral, means the prce for materal number ; Qmateral, means the quantty of materal number. 2.3 Cost model of sales stage The costs of vehcles sales are composed of transacton cost and logstcs cost. The transacton cost s the proft sharng between vehcles manufacturers and dealers. Take conventonal combuston engne vehcle MAGOTAN from VALKSWAGEN as an example, the dealers can take 7.5% of retal prce for MAGOTAN as the commsson; the average sales support takes 1.5% of retal prce. The transacton cost takes 9% of retal prce n total. Logstcs cost means the currency consumpton of labor n the enterprse logstcs and dstrbuton actvtes. It s the summaton of the expendture for the logstcs actvtes ncludng storage, sortng, dstrbuton, delvery. Logstcs cost s an mportant part of sales costs. Generally speakng, the prce dfference between the prce of the vehcle reached the dealer and the factory prce s the logstcs cost. The logstcs costs are mpacted by many external factors whch wll be dfferent much for dfferent vehcles manufactures and dealers. The logstcs costs manly nclude order processng cost, vehcles custodal cost, transportaton cost, dstrbuton management cost, vehcle damage cost, expenses of reverse logstcs vehcles, nsurance, as well as punshment fee durng delvery vehcles, etc. (1) (2) Nbuy Nlog s sale transa, log s, 1 C C C (3) 2.4 Cost model of use stage Exhaust emsson ncludng sulfur and carbon contanng pollutants of conventonal combuston engne vehcles causes polluton to envronment. It leads to external envronmental degradaton. The man responsblty of polluton to external envronment n vehcles use stage belongs to consumers whle the man body s the socety currently. The envronmental cost caused by exhaust emsson of vehcles should be borne by consumers n partcular by mposng envronmental tax to the consumers. Because t s very dffcult to mpose envronmental taxes to the consumers, the envronment tax n the world s mposed to the vehcles manufactures n manufacturng stage n practce currently. Although Chna does not start to mpose envronmental taxes, t s an nevtable trend as the requrements of the ol shortage and envronmental protecton. Therefore, ths paper creates the envronmental cost model based on the envronmental tax practce n Dansh. R s the tax rate of envronment; L s the amount of ol consumpton. C e r L 2.5 Cost model of mantenance stage The cost model of mantenance stage ncludes the materals cost of spare parts and the labor cost for mantenance of parts. The cost of mantenance the part of a vehcle for t months can be expressed n C(t). Then C(t) can be expressed by the predcted mantenance tmes M(t) for part n a tme span t and the expendture of each mantenance. The mantenance cost model can be expressed below. C ( t) M ( t) S (5) Where S s the average cost of mantenance of parts. 2.6 Model for LCC of BEVs The LCC of the BEVs s the summaton of the LCC of development stage, manufacturng stage, logstcs stage, use stage and repar stage as llustrated n above sectons. (4)

4 Cycle Cost Emprcal Analyss for BEVs Processng of data depends on the LCC model. The data obtaned from the nvestgaton and statstcs maybe not accurate enough. At the same tme, some data may be at a large span of tme, so the effect of tme and nflaton shall be taken nto account. Therefore, these data can not be drectly used for the LCC model of electrc vehcles. The data obtaned shall be handled wth a unfed calculaton standard accordng to dfferent assumptve condtons and economc status In order to make the economc ndex of the two types of vehcles comparable, the vehcles wth good sales and smlar performance currently can be selected. Ths paper compares B grade BEVs wth replaceable batteres of a company and B grade Passat of Volkswagen wth conventonal combuston engne. The performance ndex of both type of vehcles are showed n table 1. Table 1: Performance ndex of BEVs and combuston engne vehcle parameter Car type BEVs t Passa Maxmum speed (km/h) Rated power of motor (kw)/ capacty of motor (L) Mleage for one electrc charge/ ol charge Lfe cycle (year) The annual cost of two types of vehcles s calculated and compared llustrated n table 2.

5 605 Table 2: Comparson table of the LCC between BEVs and conventonal combuston engne vehcles R&D cost Cost B level BEVs of some company Passat B level car of VALKSWAGEN company Manufacturng cost 29 hundred mllon RMB/506.2 thousand vehcles=5729 RMB/ vehcle Take a vehcle wth prce thousand RMB as an example: thousand RMB manufacturng cost ncludng 100 thousand RMB for battery cost and thousand RMB for materal cost per vehcle 53 hundred mllon RMB /40.5 thousand vehcles =13086 RMB/ vehcle Take a vehcle wth prce thousand RMB as an example: 122 thousand RMB manufacturng cost Sales cost (9%) 27 thousand RMB per vehcle 19.8 thousand RMB per vehcle Envronmental cost n the use stage 0 10RMB/one hundred klometer (not consdered temporarly) Repar cost 7500RMB/ year per car 9100 RMB/ year per car LCC thousand RMB thousand RMB LCC after deductng subsdy thousand RMB thousand RMB Compared wth conventonal combuston engne vehcles n structure aspect, the BEVs are equpped wth batteres and motors wth ther control components, but wthout the engnes. The BEVs selected n ths paper s equpped wth lthum ron phosphate batteres wth capablty of 200 Ah of a sngle battery unt. The total capacty s 57kwh, kw. As per the cost of battery wth one kwh s 2000 RMB, the cost of batteres durng mass producton of the batteres s about 100 thousand RMB. The cost of other materals s estmate to be thousand RMB. So the manufacturng cost of the vehcle s thousand RMB. The actual manufacturng cost of the vehcle s about thousand RMB after mnus the natonal subsdes and local subsdes. The conventonal combuston engne vehcles shall be mantaned, such as replacng the engne ol, cleanng the ol path and mantenance of power system and mechancal system. The cost for mantenance of conventonal combuston engne vehcles s about 0.04 RMB per klometer, whle the cost for the mantenance of electrc motor, electrc control system and mechancal system for BEVs s about RMB per klometer. Accordng to table 2, the LCC of BEVs s hgher than that of conventonal combuston engne vehcles. However, the LCC of BEVs s greatly decreased, even less than that of conventonal combuston engne vehcles after the natonal subsdes and local subsdes. 4. Conclusons BEVs have been featured wth necessary condtons for market development, such as techncal level and the macro polcy level. Whle hgh cost s the most crtcal ssue to be solved to acheve ndustry scale development. The LCC of BEVs durng manufacturng s hgher than that of conventonal combuston engne vehcles. The man reason s the hgh cost of batteres. Therefore, the maturty of power batteres technology of BEVs s an mportant factor whch wll mpact much on the LCC of BEVs. Accordng to the economcs theory, economcal scale s an mportant factor to decrease the cost of products and servces. Wth the popularty of BEVs, the mass producton effect wll appear. The decreased cost of fxed cost of the unt product of BEVs s hgher than that of the ncreased cost of the unt product. Therefore, the average cost can be decreased. Materal procurement cost of BEVs can also be decreased wth mass producton. Fnally, manufacturng cost of the BEVs wll be reduced as the mass producton and the development of new technology.

6 606 As the decrease of fuel and the shortage of resources, the government wll ncrease energy tax to consumers; at the same tme, the envronmental tax wll be ncreased to the vehcles manufactures n order to enforce envronmental protecton, whle the vehcles manufactures wll transfer the cost to the fnal consumers whch wll ncrease the LCC of conventonal combuston engne vehcles. The model s constructed from the vehcle manufacturer's pont of vew, consderng the vehcles research and development, producton, sales, repar and other aspects of the cost. Green LCC s ntroduced to help consumers mprove envronmental protecton awareness n daly lfe. Based on accurate calculaton, the enterprses strategc can be developed from the perspectve of consumers whch can overcome the shortterm but nstant beneft acton. References Fang J.M., J L., 2015, Lfe cycle cost predcton for rollng stocks n mantenance phase based on VBA language program, Internatonal Journal of Smart Home, 9(3), p , /jsh Hawkns T.R., Gausen O.M., Strømman A.H., 2012, Envronmental mpacts of hybrd and electrc vehcles a revew, The Internatonal Journal of Lfe Cycle Assessment, 17(8), p , /s Hellgren J., 2007, Lfe cycle cost analyss of a car, a cty bus and an ntercty bus powertran for year 2005 and 2020, Energy Polcy, 35, p , /j.enpol Jeong K.S., Oh B.S., 2002, Fuel economy and lfe-cycle cost analyss of a fuel cell hybrd vehcle, Journal of Power Sources, 105, p , /S (01)00965-X. João P., Slva C.M., Sousa J.M.C, 2014, Effcency, cost and lfe cycle CO2 optmzaton of fuel cell hybrd and plug-n hybrd urban buses, Appled Energy, 129, p , /j.apenergy Karabasoglu O., Mchalek J., 2013, Influence of drvng patterns on lfe cycle cost and emssons of hybrd and plug-n electrc vehcle power trans, Energy Polcy, 60, p , /j.enpol Lee J.Y., Yoo M.S., Cha K., Lm T.W., Hur T., 2009, Lfe cycle cost analyss to examne the economcal feasblty of hydrogen as an alternatve fuel, Internatonal Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 34 (10), p , /j.jhydene Ln C.T., Wu T., Ou X.M., Zhang Q., Zhang X., Zhang X.L., 2013, Lfe-cycle prvate cost of hybrd electrc vehcles n the current Chnese market, Energy Polcy, 55, p , /j.enpol Luk J.M., Savlle B.A., MacLean H.L., 2015, Lfe cycle ar emssons mpacts and ownershp cost of lght-duty vehcles usng natural gas as a prmary energy source, Amercan Chemcal Socety, 49(8), p , /es Samaras C., Mesterlng K., 2008, Lfe Cycle Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emssons from Plug-n Hybrd Vehcles: Implcatons for Polcy, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, 42(9), p , /es702178s. Shekh A., Bahram S., Ranjbar A.M., Oraee H., 2013, Strategc chargng method for plugged n hybrd electrc vehcles n smart grds; a game theoretc approach, Internatonal Journal of Electrcal Power & Energy Systems, 53, p , /j.jepes Shau C.S.N., Kaushal N., Hendrckson C.T., Peterson S.B., Whtacre J.F., Mchalek J.J., 2010, Optmal Plug- In Hybrd Electrc Vehcle Desgn and Allocaton for Mnmum Lfe Cycle Cost, Petroleum Consumpton, and Greenhouse Gas Emssons, Journal of Mechancal Desgn, 132 (9), p. (091013): 1 11, / Tang X.H., Yang Y. and Yang C., 2010, Lfe-cycle cost analyss and software development based on product structure tree, Journal of Central South Unversty of Forestry &Technology, 30(5), p , /j. Vyas A., Cuenca R., Ganes L., 1998, An assessment of electrc vehcle lfe cycle cost to consumers, SAE Techncal Papers, 12, p , / Wtk R.A., Jérôme P., Mchaud V., Ludwg C., Månson J.A.E, 2011, Assessng the lfe cycle cost and envronmental performance of lghtweght materals n automoble applcatons, Compostes Part A: Appled Scence and Manufacturng, 42(11), p , /j.compostesa