Overview and Latest Topics Related to Energy Systems in the U.S.

Transcription

1 Overview and Latest Topics Related to Energy Systems in the U.S. James Reilly, Principal Consultant Reilly Associates SMART COMMUNITY SUMMIT Tokyo June 8, 2017

2 THEMES Power and Energy Trends Issues and Solutions Standards Research + Development 2

3 POWER AND ENERGY TRENDS 3

4 ELECTRICITY DEMAND Electricity use continues to increase, but the rate of growth remains lower than historic averages Electricity use by sector (billion kilowatt hours) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, direct use electricity sales residential I commercial I Industrial I transportatio -2 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2017 Electricity use growth rate percent growth (three-year rolling average) history projections

5 FUEL MIX Natural gas resource availability affects prices and plays a critical role in determining the mix of coal, natural gas, and renewable generation 5

6 Lower capital costs and tax credits boost near-term wind and sustain solar additions; coal-fired unit retirements are driven by low natural gas prices. 40 GENERATION FLEET Annual electricity generating capacity additions and retirements (gigawatts) 2016 history projections 30 additions solar wind oil and gas nuclear other coal -10 retirements Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

7 NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION Natural gas production is driven by continued development of shale gas and tight oil plays Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

8 NUCLEAR POWER Assumptions about license renewals in 2017 increase nuclear retirements, lead to net nuclear capacity decreases Nuclear electricity generating capacity (gigawatts) 2016 history projections Year-over-year nuclear capacity changes (gigawatts) 3 assumed uprates Reference 2 new reactors Reference 1 0 additions -1 actual/announced -2 retirements projected -3 retirements retirements Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

9 ISSUES AND SOLUTIONS 9

10 GENERATION MIX DRIVER TIMELINE 1994 Energy Policy Act Production Tax Credit (PTC) 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) 2013 Hydraulic Fracturing on a commercial scale 10

11 FEDERAL Electricity Production Subsidies and Support Beneficiary Support Share Coal 901 6% Natural Gas and Petroleum Liquids 690 4% Nuclear 1,660 10% Renewables Biomass 118 1% Geothermal 245 2% Hydropower 392 2% Solar 4,393 27% Wind 5,936 37% Other 593 4% Subtotal - Renewables Electric 11,677 72% Electricity - Smart Grid and Transmission 1,184 7% Total 16, % 11

12 STATES DISTRIBUTION LEVEL Renewable Portfolio Standards Mandatory purchase of RES by utilities Net Metering Compensation at retail rates Regulatory Framework Distribution Utilities 12

13 RENEWABLE PORTFOLIO STANDARDS WA: 15% x 2020* OR: 50%x 2040* (large utilities) CA: 50% x 2030 NV: 25% x 2025* UT: 20% x 2025* AZ: 15% x 2025* MT: 15% x 2015 CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs) * NM: 20%x 2020 (IOUs) ND: 10% x 2015 SD: 10% x 2015 KS: 20% x 2020 OK: 15% x 2015 MN:26.5% x 2025 (IOUs) 31.5% x 2020 (Xcel) IA: 105 MW MO:15% x 2021 WI: 10% 2015 IL: 25% x 2026 MI: 15% x 2021* IN: OH: 12.5% 10% x x NY:50% x 2030 VA: 15% x 2025 NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs) SC: 2% 2021 DC ME: 40% x 2017 NH: 24.8 x 2025 VT: 75% x 2032 MA: 15% x 2020(new resources) 6.03% x 2016 (existing resources) RI: 38.5% x 2035 CT: 27% x 2020 NJ: 20.38% RE x % solar by 2027 PA: 18% x 2021 DE: 25% x 2026* MD: 25% x 2020 DC: 50% x 2032 HI: 100% x 2045 Renewable portfolio standard Renewable portfolio goal Source: DSIRE, February 2017 TX: 5,880 MW x 2015* * U.S. Territories NMI: 20% x 2016 PR: 20% x 2035 Guam: 25% x 2035 USVI: 30% x 2025 Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables Includes non-renewable alternative resources 29 States + Washington DC + 3 territories (8 states and 1 territories have renewable portfolio goals)

14 NET METERING DC 39 States + Washington DC + 4 territories KEY State-developed mandatory rules for certain utilities (39 states + DC+ 3 territories) No statewide mandatory rules, but some utilities allow net metering (2 states) Statewide distributed generation compensation rules other than net metering (6 states + 1 territory) U.S. Territories AS PR VI GU Source: DSIRE, April 2017

15 REFORMING THE ENERGY VISION New York Source: New York Public Service Commission 15

16 Cents/kWh (illustrative) VALUE OF DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES Avoided D avoided demand, includes demand reduction value (DRV) & locational system relief value (LSRV) E environmental benefit, rate fixed at time of interconnections Capacity (ICAP) mirrors capacity currently provided under NEM, changes over time Energy (LBMP) current wholesale energy price, changes hourly Base Retail Rate (NEM) Value Stack Value Stack + MTC MTC market transition credit for mass market portion of Community Distributed Generation (CDG) projects Volumetric vs Monetary Metering Volumetric metering tracks net kwh delivered to grid NEM production exported to grid; credited on the customer s utility bill with a kwh reduction on a 1:1 ratio Monetary metering converts energy production into dollars customers see a dollar credit on their energy bill (rather than a kwh credit) Solar energy consumed onsite is not delivered to the grid and is not converted to a monetary credit For both metering methods, PV kwh consumed on-site is a kwh not purchased from the utility. 16

17 BROOKLYN QUEENS DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROGRAM (BQDM) Investment deferral for 52 MW supply shortfall at two substations, feeders and switching stations - $1.2 billion Service Territory 310,000 customers Alternative solution: Customer-side energy efficiency + demand response - $150 million Utility-side solar, fuel cells, storage - $50 million Source: Consolidated Edison 17

18 CALIFORNIA Renewable Portfolio Standard 50% by 2030 Distribution Resource Planning Policies, procedures, and rules to guide California investor-owned electric utilities (IOUs) in developing their Distribution Resources Plan. Evaluate IOUs existing and future electric distribution infrastructure and planning procedures to incorporate Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) into the planning and operations of their electric distribution systems. Microgrids: Demonstration project where the utility serves as a distribution system operator of a microgrid Storage Mandate GW by 2020 Community Choice Aggregation Local government agencies that purchase and may develop power on behalf of residents, businesses, and municipal facilities within a local or sub-regional area. Local control over power mix and rates. Source: CPUC 18

19 WHOLESALE MARKETS NEGATIVE PRICES 19

20 STANDARDS 20

21 IEEE P1547-REV STANDARD FOR INTERCONNECTION DER Fault Response to Abnormal Frequencies and Frequency Ride-through Requirements Source: P1547 /D Draft Standard for Interconnection and Interoperability of Distributed Energy Resources with Associated Electric Power Systems Interfaces 21

22 IEEE P STANDARD FOR THE SPECIFICATION OF MICROGRID CONTROLLERS Dispatchable Generation CHP Microgrid Transformer Sensitive and critical loads Load Storage Non-dispatchable generation Solar Wind Grid Substation Breaker Controllable loads Load Load Battery storage Centralized electrical storage Microgrid control system Dispatch function optimizes the use of DER assets, ensures operation of the microgrid meets requirements for internal operation and as seen from the point of interconnection to the distribution system; dispatch orders: steady state conditions and transitions. Transition function manages transitions: planned and unplanned islanding; reconnection/resynchronization (with black start as required). 22

23 CYBER SECURITY Cyber Security overarching priority R&D programs across agencies and departments DHS, FBI, DOD, DOE, NIST Framework for Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity, NIST (update January 2017) Critical Infrastructure Protection Standards NERC FERC approved updates, 2015 (effective date for implementation - April 1, 2016) CIP (Security Management Controls) CIP (Personnel and Training), CIP (Physical Security of BES Cyber Systems) CIP (Systems Security Management) CIP (Recovery Plans for BES Cyber Systems) CIP (Configuration Change Management and Vulnerability Assessments) CIP (Information Protection) GridEx national cyber exercise planned by NERC Operational aspects, rather than IT applications for cybersecurity Bi-annual GridEx IV, November 2017 Participants: ISOs, Utilities, Federal, State and Local agencies 3,500 individuals 23

24 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 24

25 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY FY18 BUDGET Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) FY2017 $208 million 40% reduction FY2018 $123 million Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) FY2017 $2,473 million 48% reduction FY2018 $1,275 million Advanced Research Projects Agency Energy (ARPA-E) FY 2017 $285 million 39% reduction FY 2018 $173 million 25

26 GRID MODERNIZATION DOE "Smart Grid" Program ARRA ( ) $3.5 billion Smart Grid (FY2018) $10 million Grid Modernization Lab Consortium (GMLC) Grid Modernization Initiative (2015 to 2018) 88 R&D projects 14 national laboratories $220 million to GMLC (over three years) 26

27 GRID MODERNIZATION PROJECTS GMLC CORE ACTIVITIES Project 6: Grid Sensing and Measurement Strategy PIONEER REGIONAL PARTNERSHIPS Project 15: Grid Frequency Support from Distributed Inverter-Based Resources in Hawaii CROSSCUTTING ACTIVITIES Project 19: Advanced Sensor Development PROGRAM SPECIFIC SELECTIONS BUILDING TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE Project 1: Virtual Batteries FUEL CELLS TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE Project 2: Integrated Systems Modeling of the Interactions between Stationary Hydrogen, Vehicle, and Grid Resources SOLAR ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE Project 12: CyDER: A Cyber Physical Co-simulation Platform for Distributed Energy Resources in Smart Grids VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE Project 3: Modeling and Control Software to Support V2G Integration WIND AND WATER POWER TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE Project 4: Providing Ramping Service with Wind to Enhance Power System Operational Flexibility ADVANCED GRID MODELING Project 4: Protection and Dynamic Modeling, Simulation, Analysis, and Visualization of Cascading Failures ADVANCED DISTRIBUTION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS Project 3: Advanced Distribution Management System Testbed Development ENERGY SYSTEMS RISK AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES Project 1: Improved Forecasts of Electric Outages from Tropical Cyclones ENERGY STORAGE Project 2: Collaborative Demo for Secondary Use and Use Case Validation SMART GRID Project 2: A Closed-Loop Distribution System Restoration Tool for Natural Disaster Recovery TRANSMISSION RELIABILITY Project 3: HVDC and Load Modulation for Improved Dynamic Response Using Phasor Measurements TRANSFORMER RESILIENCE AND ADVANCED COMPONENTS Project 3: High Voltage Testing and Modeling of Transformer, Line Interface Devices, and System Components Under Electromagnetic Pulse, Geomagnetic Disturbance, and Other Abnormal Transients CYBERSECURITY FOR ENERGY DELIVERY SYSTEMS Project 2: Cybersecurity for Renewables, Distributed Energy Resources, and Smart Inverters 27

28 LOCATIONAL VALUE OF DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES Integration of Distribution System Power Flow Optimization, (Advanced) DER Asset Economic Optimization, Economic and Security Constrained DER Buildouts and Load Projections, Transmission System Power Flow and Optimization, Dispatch / Merit Order Modeling with distribution factors / locational performance assessed across systems. Integrated Model Development Project DER Siting and Optimization Tool 28

29 MICROGRID R&D PROGRAM TIMELINE Evolution of microgrids and controllers Functionality and standards Demonstration projects for deployment of DER and microgrids Workshops Use Cases FOA 997 Metrics + Testing IEEE Standards ugrid Controller + DMS Simulations The microgrid is a concept for which the controller is the defining and enabling technology. Indeed, the microgrid may be defined as the resources generation, storage, and loads within a boundary that are managed by the controller. The microgrid controller manages the resources within the microgrid s boundaries, at the point of interconnection with the utility and in interaction with the utility during normal operations, sometimes called cooperative control. It is at this level that the microgrid controller achieves its full potential for optimizing the value of distributed energy resources for the grid operations and customers, both those served by the microgrid directly and the utility overall. The microgrid controller is what defines the microgrid s operational relationship with the distribution utility. 29

30 ADVANCED DISTRIBUTION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 30

31 INTEGRATED CONTROLS AND OPERATIONS 31