Pathways to Climate Justice in a Desert Metropolis

Transcription

1 Pathways to Climate Justice in a Desert Metropolis Sharon L. Harlan Professor of Sociology and Health Sciences Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts

2 Authorship and Acknowledgements Co-authors: Paul Chakalian, Ph.D. student, Environmental Social Science, Arizona State University Juan Declet-Barreto, Kendall Science Fellow, Union of Concerned Scientists David M. Hondula, Assistant Professor of Climatology and Atmospheric Science, Arizona State University G. Darrel Jenerette, Associate Professor of Landscape Ecology, University of California Riverside This work was funded by National Science Foundation grants GEO , GEO , BCS , SES , and DEB

3 The Legend of the Phoenix In ancient Egyptian mythology and in myths derived from it, the Phoenix is a female mythical sacred firebird with beautiful gold and red plumage. Said to live for 500 or 1461 years (depending on the source), at the end of its lifecycle the phoenix builds itself a nest of cinnamon twigs that it then ignites; both nest and bird burn fiercely and are reduced to ashes, from which a new, young phoenix arises. of the phoenix.html ** legend of the phoenix

4 Presentation Outline 1. Climate hazard of extreme heat for vulnerable populations 2. Baseline vulnerabilities of the coupled human-natural cooling system 3. Potential pathways* for societal adaptations to climate change Public Health protecting sensitive populations Pro-Poor addressing concerns of poverty and discrimination 4. Challenges to creating an adaptation strategy grounded in climate

5 Climate Hazards in Phoenix, Arizona Desert hazards o season daytime highs > 100 F last from June 1- September 15 o NWS heat warnings issued for an average of 18 days annually o < 8 inches of rain annually Land (LULC) change hazards o Urbanization the Urban Heat Island o increase from 12 to 31 days > 110 F (misery days) annually in the urbanized area compared to no change in the rural area Subtropical hot desert

6 What to Expect: simulated future temperatures for Central Arizona from all causes RCM Model Avg. Phx Met Typical summer ( ) ( ) ( ) Total number of EHE s Total EHE days Total days over 43.3 C 110 F Total days over 45.5 C 114 F Avg. days duration of EHE North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Average values from seven RCM/AOGCM combinations of 33-year totals for Extreme Heat Events ( ) as well as the historical data (PHX Met) from Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport for reference. 50 km resolution. l k d f l h

7 Heat and Human Health... The Silent Killer 632 confirmed heat deaths in Maricopa County, AZ during several times the national average 2003 Europe 70,000 dead 2010 Moscow 11,000 dead 2010 Ahmedabad 1,344 dead India : 225 heat waves, uncounted deaths 7

8 Deaths are the tip of the heat severity pyramid for health events Maricopa County, AZ: Annualized heatrelated emergency room visits are 4-fold higher than inpatient hospitalizations and hospitalizations are 10-fold higher than deaths. Hess et al Environmental Health Perspectives Petitti, Hondula, Yang, Harlan, Chowell Environmental Health Perspectives

9 Heat illness human physiological response to high environmental temperature Direct Effects Mild: heat rash, heat edema, heat cramps Moderate: heat exhaustion (thirst, headache, weakness, fainting) Severe: heat stroke (nausea, increased heart rate, loss of consciousness) Indirect Effects Dehydration and consequences (e.g. renal) Cardiac atherosclerosis and stroke Congestive heart failure Respiratory diseases Diabetes 9

10 Baseline Vulnerability: a delicately balanced coupled human and natural cooling system o 4.5 million population (up from 330,000 in 1950) o o Water scarcity and distant water supply Water Energy Vegetation Nexus - Energy supply (20%) is essential for pumping and transporting water in Southwest - Thermoelectric plants are powered by water - Water + Energy = Indoor cooling (air conditioning) - Water + Energy + Vegetation = Outdoor cooling

11 Decline of 80% in mortality effect on extremely hot days in the 20 th century United States Estimated reduction from 3,600 to 600 premature annual deaths due to hot days in second half of the century Barreca, A. et al Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the U.S. Temperature Mortality Relationship over the 20 th Century, MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. 11

12 Residential air conditioning explains almost entire decline in national heat mortality Barreca, A. et al Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the U.S. Temperature Mortality Relationship over the 20 th Century, MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. 12

13 Vegetation Cools the Outdoors: land cover has large effect on variation in local outdoor temperatures Estimated Surface Temperature ( C) Bare Surface Fully Vegetated Day of Year Jenerette, Harlan, Stefanov, Jenerette Martin et 2011 al Ecological Applications

14 Trade-offs of More Water (and Energy) for Cooler Temperatures: landscape irrigation is largest part of residential water consumption in Arizona Jenerette, Harlan, Stefanov, Martin 2011 Estimated additional irrigation water to generate a landscape with some proportion of each neighborhood landscape below a critical surface temperature

15 The Public Health Pathway: Protecting Sensitive Populations Public health field promotes and protects the health of people and the communities where they live, learn, work, and play. (APHA 2016) o Investigation and publication of information on heat deaths in Maricopa County to detect most sensitive populations and shape interventions o Leading the nation in advanced heat surveillance systems for heat injury and death o Educating the public about heat safety and hot weather behaviors Excessive heat warnings National Weather Service Messaging campaigns through local media Specialized tool kits for sensitive populations

16 England, Maricopa Public Health Commissioner , NOAA Christine Keith/Arizona Republic/AP Photo

17 Vulnerable Populations % Number of Deaths % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Percentage of Homeless Deaths Non Homeless Homeless Percent Homeless 37.65% 11.76% 6.00% 28.38% 26.83% 12.26% 8.18% 16.22% 12.07% 9.52% Years of Surveillance The proportion of heat-related deaths in those who are homeless has decreased, although the absolute number of deaths remains roughly the same. England, Maricopa Public Health Commissioner , NOAA

18 Heat Relief Network (HRN) Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG), municipalities, non profit and faith based organizations Goal: to prevent heat related deaths More than 40 Cooling Centers 32 water collection sites 8 hydration stations/water distribution sites Well checks by faith communities and others Cooling Centers/Heat Refuge Stations England, Maricopa Public Health Commissioner , NOAA Water Collection Sites Water Distribution Sites

19 Public Education England, Maricopa Public Health Commissioner

20 . BRACE: CDC Partnership for Improving Adaptive Capacity of States and Localities CDC provides funding for state, territorial, and tribal health departments to conduct analytic and programmatic activities aimed at reducing the health consequences of climate change and variability by developing public health adaptation strategies using the BRACE framework. Piloting 16 states, 2 cities partner with scientists use models to predict, monitor, identify most vulnerable Marinucci et al Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 11,

21 The Pro-Poor Pathway: Identifying Structural Inequalities Poverty is the key indicator of climate vulnerability around the globe* Political ecology of vulnerable populations in Phoenix metro o Historical disenfranchisement co-creation of racial segregation and disamenity zone o o Legacy effect one of the highest metro poverty rates (17.4%) in the nation and concentration in impoverished minority neighborhoods Geography of a place-based heat riskscape with social, environmental and health disparities *Moser et al. 2010

22 Press-Pulse Dynamics (PPD) Framework for Long-term Social-Ecological Research Global Environmental Change Urban Development Human Health LULC Change Urban Heat Island Temperature Regulation Water Energy Vegetation diagram after Collins et al Collins et al

23 Segregation and Uneven Development: North/South Divide Late 19 th / early 20 th century settlement Modern population Anglo farmers / land owners White, non-hispanic 59% Mexican agricultural laborers Hispanic / Latino 30% Salt River dams African American 5% Mining and agriculture Asian 3.5% Railroad, real estate and industry Native American 2% North of the railroad: White Anglo South of the railroad: Ethnic Minority Early 20 th century Early 20th century

24 Many poor quality homes with little indoor cooling. Fewer people in low-income neighborhoods have air conditioning. More poor people report that the cost of electricity, broken equipment, and the cost of repairs prevent them from using air conditioners to cool indoor temperatures in their homes.

25 Green Gap in Phoenix Widens Over Time Lower-income neighborhoods have significantly High less Income vegetation and higher daily maximum Parcels and minimum temperatures than higher-income neighborhoods. High Income Parcels Low Income Parcels Harlan et al. 2006, Larsen and Harlan, 2006; Jenerette et al. 2007, Ruddell et al. 2010; Jenerette et al. 2011

26 Close ups of Land Cover in a Fight Back Neighborhood

27 Better appointed homes, parks, and public buildings in the neighborhood

28 Spatial epidemiology shows that probabilities of death directly caused by high temperature are significantly higher in poor neighborhoods. Low socioeconomic status, social isolation of elderly, less vegetated land cover, and high temperature are independent predictors of higher mortality Harlan, Declet, Stefanov, Petitti 2013

29 Roadblocks and U-turns in the Pro-Poor Pathway o Urban Heat Island moderation misses low income neighborhoods Downtown Phoenix Urban Form business and street trees Tree and Shade Task Force free trees that often die o Substandard homes (6.4% of housing stock are mobile homes) o Energy and water prices and too little assistance o Lack of state legislative protection for renters (38% of residents) o State government s rejection of climate change mitigation and adaptations o Government all levels deficiencies in meeting social needs o Intersecting deficits a substructure of climate vulnerability for the poor

30 Adaptation Pathways to Climate Justice? 1. Equity in distributing the burdens and benefits of climate change 2. Recognition of marginalized groups as rightful participants in governance and management of climate change 3. Freedom of all peoples to make choices that maximize their capabilities to survive now and in the future 4. Rebuilding damaged historical relationships and Harlan, correcting Pellow, and Roberts wrongs against humanity and the 2016 Earth

31 Equitable distribution of services on the two pathways Public health sector is responsive, proactive, and aware of heat-health disparities they could be stronger advocates to reduce the structural barriers that impoverished people face in protecting themselves, kin, and neighbors. Opposition of state elected representative government to emissions mitigation, environmentally-friendly, and redistributive income policies create a poor climate for social justice. Basic needs of poor people are not being met.

32 Procedural justice and recognition of marginalized groups on the pro-poor pathway: need support to develop their assets

33 A Way Forward... Sustainable Cities, Just Communities, and Climate Adaptation Minimize human health impacts by meeting the basic social, economic, and legal needs of the poor. Protect the local environment by respecting limits and distributing resources to achieve the most efficient and equitable ecosystem services from low impact development. Support the visions of low-income communities and their right to decide and determine how to develop their assets. Apply principles of social, environmental, and climate justice to adaptation Distribution... Recognition... Participation

34 Future of the Phoenix? Phoenix: A city born from the ruins of a former civilization Hohokam Canal System c. 1400