PAG EPAC November 6, 2015 Tucson, Arizona. Gregg Garfin, The University of Arizona

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1 Tucson Climate Change and Adaptation PAG EPAC November 6, 2015 Tucson, Arizona Gregg Garfin, The University of Arizona

2 Key Messages Hotter temperatures Pima County +++ Colorado River Basin ++ Lower precipitation Pima County +/? Colorado River Basin? Fire risk ++ Flood risk + Adaptation planning Tucson is in progress

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4 Observed Changes

5 Pima County Average Annual Temperature

6 Pima County Average Annual Precipitation

7 Pima County Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Drought Index

8 DROUGHT 6 Nov PAG EPAC

9 Aspen Fire Nov PAG EPAC

10 Mesa, AZ September 2014 Photo: Arizona Central

11 Projected Changes

12 11 August ESA

13 Flagstaff Tucson 69 F Prescott Yuma 76 F 6 Nov PAG EPAC Average Annual Temperature Data: NCDC

14 Longer Heat Waves Fewer Cold Nights More Hot Days 6 Nov PAG EPAC

15 6 Nov PAG EPAC

16 10-15% 6 Nov PAG EPAC Chapter 10 Water

17 Latest IPCC/CMIP5 Climate Model Projections (Ensemble average of 39 global models) Projected Annual Precipitation Change by the End of Century Given Continued High Emissions (RCP8.5) Driest 25% Middle 50% Wettest 25% IPCC, 2013 Bottom-line: Colorado River Basin could get a little wetter, drier, or stay about the same Jonathan Overpeck, University of Arizona

18 Latest IPCC/CMIP5 Climate Model Projections (Ensemble average of 39 global models) Projected Annual Temperature Change by the End of Century Given Continued High Emissions (RCP8.5) Coolest 25% Middle 50% Warmest 25% IPCC, 2013 Bottom-line: Colorado River Basin will get hotter for sure, perhaps much hotter Jonathan Overpeck, University of Arizona

19 Warming alone will drive Colorado River flow declines of 6.5% +/- 3.5% per C How will warming affect our water? A warmer atmosphere demands more water Sublimation from snow Evaporation of surface water Evapotranspiration from plants and soils More rain, less snow Rain on snow Jonathan Overpeck, University of Arizona

20 Colorado River Streamflow Nov PAG EPAC

21 Projected Area Burned Increase AZ: 43% 6 Nov PAG EPAC Chapter 8 Ecosystems

22 Photo: Daniel Griffin, University of Arizona

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24 Higher Temperatures Less Water Reliability Increasing Risks Big Challenges

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26 Mayors Climate Protection Agreement Tucson Climate Change Committee Mitigation Plan Adopted Plan Tucson Reinvigorated Adaptation Planning Cascadia Adaptation Report

27 Interim Plan Interim Plan Work in progress Further research Living document Public input Connections with mitigation

28 Interim Plan Built Environment Agriculture and Food Systems Health and Human Services Land Use and Transportation Urban Natural Resources Water Resources

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30 Section Structure Scope and Context Vulnerabilities Exposures Linkages across focal areas Connections to Plan Tucson Strategies/Actions Short Long-term

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32 Scope Health and Human Services Disease UHI Neighborhoods Housing At-risk populations Environmental quality

33 Scope Land Use and Transportation Spatial distribution of population Built environments and infrastructure Flows of people, materials, resources Transportation and economic development Quality of life

34 Urban Natural Resources Scope Aesthetic and recreational amenities Native plant cover and other green infrastructure risks introduced by non-native plants Urban tree canopy provision of shade flood control and water filtration comfort for pedestrians Riparian and arroyo corridors Wildlife & habitat Adjacent managed lands

35 Scope Connections Public health Quality of life Built environment Economics Land use & transportation

36 Vulnerabilities Temperature increase and UHI effect: Stress on trees and urban landscaping Forest mortality in mountain parks Decreased length of tourism season warm Benefits to tourism season cool Adequate access to parks and open space Vulnerability of wildlife species Economic vulnerability

37 Urban Natural Resources Strategies Temperature increase and UHI effect: Economic value of urban trees: contributions to property value, energy savings, carbon storage, stormwater reduction, and air quality Identify high priority areas where tree cover is currently sparse, and where there are welldocumented extreme heat pockets Publish a plant growing list that focuses on plants that can survive in an altered climate.

38 Next Steps Research & Editing Vetting by CCC Coordination with City departments Executive Summary + short-term endorsable actions Public input Coordination with region

39 Gregg Garfin School of Natural Resources and Institute of the Environment The University of Arizona