July 1, SUBJECT: PNUCC presentation: Carbon - a Northwest perspective

Transcription

1 Bill Bradbury Chair Oregon Henry Lorenzen Oregon W. Bill Booth Idaho James A. Yost Idaho Jennifer Anders Vice Chair Montana Pat Smith Montana Tom Karier Washington Phil Rockefeller Washington July 1, 2014 MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: Council Members Ben Kujala SUBJECT: PNUCC presentation: Carbon - a Northwest perspective PNUCC has recently been analyzing the carbon footprint of the Northwest. The analysis defines a footprint for the Northwest power system, examines the associated carbon emissions and discusses options for carbon reduction. PNUCC will be releasing a white paper to help provide context for policy conversations about carbon emissions, including conversations about the new EPA 111(d) regulations. Staff supplied some input data from the Council. PNUCC incorporated these Council data with PNUCC member data to pursue this analysis. Dick Adams, the PNUCC Executive Director, and Tomás Morrisey, a PNUCC Policy Analyst, will discuss this work and share results with the Council Members. 851 S.W. Sixth Avenue, Suite 1100 Steve Crow Portland, Oregon Executive Director Fax:

2 Carbon Emissions: a Northwest Perspective A discussion on carbon dioxide emissions and the Northwest electric power sector Northwest Power & Conservation Council July 9,

3 Carbon Paper Purpose Hit the Refresh Button Inform Ongoing Policy Discussions Provide Context for Northwest Power Sector Emissions Contribute to Council Power Plan Development 2

4 For Today s Discussion Game Plan Share our observations Stop Ask Listen Goal Do the key points resonate with you? Are there are other concepts to address?

5 Seven Key Points There are many ways to define a carbon footprint Transportation is the largest contributor of CO 2 in the Northwest Northwest produces low carbon power Large changes in annual carbon emissions Big differences in utility portfolio emissions Northwest is actively reducing carbon Many options for reducing carbon

6 1 - Many Ways to Define a Carbon Footprint All generation in ID, MT, OR, WA, Jim Bridger and 50% of Valmy Jim Bridger North Valmy 1% 2% 4% 3% 11% 60% Hydro 18% Wind Other, CO2 free 27% 22% 5% 6% Coal Natural Gas Other, CO2 emitting 43% Northwest generation Remaining US generation average. EIA data. 5

7 2 - Transportation is the Largest Contributor US CO 2 emissions from energy use Northwest CO 2 emissions from energy use (184 million metric tons) Remaining US CO 2 emissions (5,448 million metric tons) 44% 24% 32% Northwest electricity Northwest transportation Northwest other Emissions from the consumption of energy. EIA Data,

8 3 - Northwest Produces Low Carbon Power Northwest vs. US electric CO2 intensity 0.70 Northwest Remaining US 0.60 Metric tons CO2/MWh f EIA data. 7

9 4 - Large Changes in Annual Emissions Northwest electric power CO 2 emissions and water supply % Million metric tons CO Million metric tons CO2 Percent of avg. water supply 125% 100% 75% 50% 25% Percent of average water supply f 0% EIA and NOAA data. 8

10 5 - Big Differences in Portfolio Emissions Utility x Utility z Hydro Wind Other, CO2 free Coal Natural gas Contracts/imports 2014 PNUCC NRF Utility y 9

11 6 - Northwest Actively Reducing Carbon Report focuses on three main efforts: Energy efficiency Coal plant retirements Renewable portfolio standards 10

12 Coal Retirements Will Reduce Carbon Northwest CO 2 estimate without Boardman or Centralia Northwest, actual Northwest, Board./Cent. replaced by gas Million metric tons CO f Chart made by removing Board./Cent. Emissions and replacing with a high efficiency CCCT. This was done by multiplying the coal units MWh production by 0.37 tons/mwh. EIA data. 11

13 7 - Many Options for Reducing Carbon Group Measure Cost/metric ton (2014$) E3 for PGE Gorge wind built in 2030 $161 E3 for California group Increased RPS, 33% to 40% or 50% $350 to $1,050 Bloomberg High/average quality wind built in 2030 $0 to $30 (assumes wind built in lieu of coal plants) Avista Early coal retirement $95 PSU Carbon tax at $60/ton* *The study estimated that in 2035 a CO 2 tax of $60 per ton would reduce 6 million metric tons of CO 2 and collect 2 billion dollars of revenue. 12

14 EPA Proposed Rule Under 111(d) Instructs states to create plans to reduce carbon intensity or total CO 2 tonnage State 2012 CO 2 Emissions Intensity (pounds/mwh) 2030 CO 2 Emission Intensity Goal (pounds/mwh) Percent Reduction Idaho % Montana 2,246 1,771 21% Oregon % Washington % 13

15 Potential Northwest Issues 111(d) uses a specific year, 2012, as the baseline year Could give Northwest states unintentionally low targets % Million metric tons CO Million metric tons CO2 Percent of avg. water supply 125% 100% 75% 50% 25% Percent of average water supply f 0% EIA and NOAA data 14

16 Thank You 15

17 Taskforce participants John Lyons Avista Stefan Brown Portland General Electric Larry Stene BPA Brendan McCarthy Portland General Electric Tom Haymaker Clark PUD Steve Schue Portland General Electric Terry Toland Clark PUD Elysia Treanor Portland General Electric Philip DeVol Idaho Power Phillip Popoff Puget Sound Energy Mark Stokes Idaho Power Keith Faretra Puget Sound Energy Phil Obenchain PacifiCorp Zac Yanez Snohomish PUD Tomás Morrissey PNUCC Cathy Carruthers Tacoma Power 16

18 Global Trend is Up CO 2 emissions from energy use 35,000 Global China US EU 28 Million metric tons CO 2 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Emissions from the consumption of energy. EIA Data. 17

19 Northwest v. Top Ten Global Economies 2010 electric power CO 2 intensity France Brazil Canada Northwest Italy Japan United Kingdom Germany Remaining US China India Metric tons of CO2/MWh EIA, IEA and World bank data. Note that accounting in IEA data may differ from accounting in EIA data. 18

20 CO2 reduction estimate via wind Estimated impact of wind on Northwest CO 2 Million metric tons CO CO2, reported CO2 w/o wind (0.37 tons/mwh offset) f Chart made by multiplying the MWh production of wind by an offset of 0.37 tons/mwh and adding it to the reported CO2 emissions. Not adjusted for imports/exports. EIA data. 19

21 Energy Efficiency Dampens Emissions Forecasted Northwest utility energy efficiency 1,250 1,000 MWa/MW Energy MWa Winter Peak MW 20

22 US Social Cost Carbon Histogram, 3% Min 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% Max Mean $(25,790.00) $ 2.17 $ $ $ $ $ 11, $ EPA. Discount rate year ,000 games. 21

23 Carbon Tax Dispatch Order Idaho Power 2013 IRP. 22

24 Northwest and US CO2 Variations Northwest Remaining US f EIA data set to equal

25 Cost per Ton for Reducing CO2 with Wind Levelized cost/mwh $ 95 Transmission cost $ 6 Integration cost $ 10 Energy value $ (40) Capacity value $ (4) Net Cost $ 66 Metric tons CO 2 offset 0.41 Cost/metric ton CO 2 $ 162 E3 analysis for PGE s 2013 IRP. Examines building wind in the Columbia River Gorge in $2014. Energy and capacity from PGE Schedule

26 Coal and Gas Power in the Northwest 6,000 Coal Natural Gas 5,000 Annual Energy (MWa) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, p 25