Positive Absorption Streak Continues for Atlanta Industrial

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report Q Industrial Positive Absorption Streak Continues for Atlanta Industrial Key Takeaways > Following a record year in 2017, Atlanta s industrial market posted its 27th consecutive quarter of positive absorption in Q1. > South Atlanta remains the juggernaut of industrial activity. The submarket led Atlanta yet again with 3.1 million square feet of space absorbed. It also saw 4 of the 5 largest lease transactions this quarter. > Vacancy ticked up slightly in Q1 due to the 6.9 million square feet of industrial deliveries. Atlanta led the nation with the highest amount of space added in the first quarter. > New deliveries also contributed to a 2.4% quarterly increase in the average quoted rental rate for Atlanta industrial space. > Atlanta s industrial market begins the year productively; however, 80% of the quarter s gains were in one submarket. Occupancies are expected to be more widespread in the coming quarters which should ultimately lead to the 15 million square feet of projected absorption in Atlanta Industrial Market Upon final revision of last year s stats, it comes to note the Atlanta industrial market absorbed a record amount of industrial space in The first quarter of this year sees this positive activity continue as more space was occupied than vacated for a 27th consecutive period. Although not as strong as the last couple of years, almost 3.8 million square feet of industrial space was absorbed in Q1. The bulk of this absorption took place in the South Atlanta submarket which continues to dominate the Atlanta industrial landscape in both leasing and also construction activity. Leading the way this quarter were two million-plus square foot occupancies. ASOS.com was the largest at 1,039,570 square feet, moving into Majestic Airport Market Indicators Relative to prior period VACANCY NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION Summary Statistics Atlanta Industrial Market Market Warehouse Flex & Shallow-Bay Vacancy Rate 7.0% 7.1% 7.1% Change From Q % 0.4% 0.5% Year-Over-Year Change -0.4% -0.5% -0.9% Absorption YTD (Millions Square Feet) Construction Deliveries YTD (Millions Square Feet) Under Construction (Millions Square Feet) Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year (NNN) Q Average Quoted $4.32 $4.00 Change From Q % 2.3% Year-Over-Year Change 4.1% 4.4% Q2 2018* RENTAL RATE CAP RATES - *Projected SB $4.37 Flex $9.16 SB 4.5% Flex 1.2% SB 8.2% Flex 5.0%

2 Atlanta Industrial Market (continued) Center IV-Bldg. A. The occupancy is the first ever U.S. fulfillment center for the British fashion retailer. The second largest move of the quarter came from Lindt Chocolates which occupied 1,004,400 square feet at Lambert Farms Logistics Park in Henry County. Both of these leases were completed during the surge in demand that took place last year for large warehouses; a trend that persists to this day and keeps these types of available space options limited. To keep up with demand, developers continue to bring new industrial projects to the market. According to stats provided by Colliers International, Atlanta had the nation s highest amount of industrial space added to inventory in the first quarter. Additionally, the 6.9 million UPDATE - Recent Transactions in the Market Notable Leasing Activity square feet of deliveries in Q1 is the most for the Atlanta market since the third quarter of The vast majority of this space continues to be focused in the metro s two largest submarkets: South Atlanta and Northeast Atlanta. Combined, these areas account for practically all of the space delivered this quarter; and are also where over threequarters of the current space under construction is taking place. Because the added supply outnumbered total net absorption, Atlanta s industrial vacancy rate increased slightly to 7% this quarter. Yearover-year, however, the rate is down 40 basis points (0.4%). The new industrial space also contributed to a sizeable increase in Atlanta s average quoted rental rate which is up 2.4% quarter-over-quarter; the highest escalation in almost three years. Older product in the market is also affecting rental appreciation as submarkets in which these properties are located have become practically leased up. TENANT PROPERTY SUBMARKET LANDLORD SIZE (SF) TYPE Saddle Creek Southwest 85 Logistics Ctr. South Atlanta Ind Core5 Industrial 1,200,331 Distribution Lease HD Supply Gillem Logistics Ctr.-150 South Atlanta Ind Robinson Weeks Prtnrs 1,017,627 Warehouse Lease Vert Logistics 250 Declaration Drive South Atlanta Ind Duke Realty 759,300 Warehouse Lease Newell Brands 4475 S Fulton Pkwy.-Bldg 5 South Atlanta Ind Majestic Realty 744,900 Distribution Renewal & Contr. Bluelinx 200 Hosea Rd. Northeast Atlanta Ind Brennan Investment Gr. 585,637 Distribution Renewal Notable Sales Activity PROPERTY SUBMARKET SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE (SF) PRICE / SF BUYER 4400 International Pkwy. South Atlanta Ind 2/24/2018 $32,250, ,000 $ Realterm US, Inc. Buford Logistics Ctr.-Bldg. A Northeast Atlanta Ind 1/9/2018 $28,550, ,048 $58.02 Invesco 7705 Staples Dr. I-20 West/Fulton Ind 3/8/2018 $23,750, ,969 $38.43 LRC Properties 200 Hosea Rd. Northeast Atlanta Ind 1/5/2018 $22,000, ,637 $47.66 Brennan Investment Group 850 Douglas Hill Rd. I-20 West/Fulton Ind 1/12/2018 $17,000, ,415 $60.20 Industrial Property Trust Historical Absorption, Deliveries and Vacancy Rates 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 16% 14% 12% Square Feet 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, % 8% 6% 4% (5,000,000) (10,000,000) Absorption Deliveries Vacancy % % 0% 2 Research & Forecast Report Q Atlanta Industrial Colliers International

3 Vacancy & Availability > The 0.4% rise in Atlanta s industrial vacancy rate this quarter is the result of delivered space being more than the amount of space absorbed. > Northwest Atlanta experienced the largest drop in vacancy in Q1 and is now at its lowest rate ever in the submarket s history. > Although recent deliveries have added some options, availability for existing warehouses over 700,000 square feet are few in number. There are currently nine projects under construction to meet demand for these spaces. > The equilibrium between supply and demand in the market is expected to continue throughout the year. Because of this, Atlanta s industrial vacancy rate is not likely to move signifi cantly from its current level over the next three quarters. Absorption & Leasing Activity > The 3.8 million square feet of positive absorption in the first quarter represents the 27th consecutive period Atlanta has seen more industrial tenants move into than out of space. > South Atlanta accounted for more than 80% of Q1 s absorption. Northeast Atlanta had somewhat of an offquarter absorbing only 163,300 square feet. > In terms of volume, most of the occupancies in first quarter came from smaller tenants below 200,000 square feet. > Although slow to start the year, industrial leasing activity picked up mid-quarter. The largest transactions took place, not surprisingly, in the South Atlanta submarket. Both the Airport/85 South and I-75 South/Henry County sections continue to see lots of interest from prospects. > Demand for Atlanta warehouse product remains elevated. Anticipated occupancy gains next quarter are tracking at the same level as Q1. Because of these factors, 2018 s projected industrial absorption is expected to top 15 million square feet for the fourth time in five years. Rental Rates > Atlanta s average industrial rental rate increased by more than 2% for a second consecutive quarter. > Overall warehouse rents are up 2.3% from last quarter; and 4.4% year-over-year. The I-20 West area of I-20W/ Fulton Industrial saw the largest increase in warehouse rents this quarter; up 5.9% from Year-End 2017, and up 13.5% from this time last year. > Back-to-back quarters of impressive rental appreciation suggests Atlanta s industrial market has still yet to reach peak levels. Q Vacant Space By Type WAREHOUSE 40,313,365 SF VCY RATE = 7.1% SHALLOW-BAY 4,720,238 SF VCY RATE = 6.4% FLEX 3,849,213 SF VCY RATE = 6.7% Warehouse Shallow-Bay Flex Q Net Absorption By Submarket Square Feet 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 (500,000) SOUTH Q Atlanta Rental Rates Overall Market & Bulk Warehouse* (per sq. ft.) Market AVG NORTHWEST I-20W FULTON IND NORTHEAST NORTH CENTRAL 2017 STONE MOUNTAIN Bulk Warehouse* *Bulk warehouse defi ned as warehouse space in excess of 200,000 SF with dock loading and minimum ceiling heights of 24 ft. CENTRAL CHATTAHOOCHEE 2018 SNAPFINGER I-20E $4.50 $4.25 $4.00 $3.75 $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 Sources: CoStar Property, Colliers Research 3 Research & Forecast Report Q Atlanta Industrial Colliers International

4 Construction > Atlanta saw the highest amount of industrial space delivered in the nation this quarter. > There were 4 deliveries of 1-million sq. ft.-plus in Q1. Only one of these has been leased. > Industrial construction activity remains robust in Atlanta. Quarterly levels have not dipped below 14 million square feet for three years now. Construction Activity (300,000 SF+) Sales Activity > Following a record year of Atlanta industrial investment, sales volume in the first quarter was modest. > Realterm US, Inc. s puchase of 4400 International Pkwy commanded a high price/sf following FedEx s recent 5-year renewal at the facility. > Given the multitude of new deliveries this quarter, and also through the end of the year, investment for Atlanta industrial should pick up. PROPERTY SUBMARKET SIZE (SF) DELIVERY DATE SW 85 Logistics Center South Atlanta Ind 1,200,331 Third Quarter 2018 UPS-Charlie Brown Field I-20 West/Fulton Ind 1,200,000 Second Quarter 2018 Southern Gateway B-King Mill South Atlanta Ind 1,104,320 First Quarter 2019 Northeast 85 Logistics Ctr. Northeast Atlanta Ind 1,053,360 Fourth Quarter 2018 Gillem Logistics Ctr-Bldg.200 South Atlanta Ind 1,017,627 Second Quarter 2018 Palmetto Logistics Ctr. South Atlanta Ind 1,000,200 Fourth Quarter Tatum Road South Atlanta Ind 982,777 Fourth Quarter 2018 DCT RiverWest-Thornton Rd. I-20 West/Fulton Ind 925,800 Fourth Quarter 2018 Liberty Commerce Ctr. South Atlanta Ind 842,400 Second Quarter 2018 Jefferson Mill Bus. Park - G Northeast Atlanta Ind 749,730 Third Quarter 2018 New Salem Church Rd. Northeast Atlanta Ind 639,112 Fourth Quarter 2018 Preston Blvd.-I-20 West DC I-20 West/Fulton Ind 499,320 Second Quarter 2018 Braselton Point Logistics Ctr. Northeast Atlanta Ind 462,000 Third Quarter Bright Star Rd. I-20 West/Fulton Ind 335,200 Third Quarter 2018 Cherokee Hwy. 92 Northwest Atlanta Ind 312,500 Second Quarter Royal South Pkwy. South Atlanta Ind 304,320 Third Quarter 2018 Outlook Heading into Q2, all signs point to yet another strong year of activity for Atlanta s industrial market. Though not likely to top last year s record amount absorbed, levels are anticipated to reach the 15-million square foot mark for the fourth time in five years. This comes as no surprise given the sustained demand for space in the market, most notably in the South Atlanta and Northeast Atlanta submarkets. Still, even though these areas have commanded the most attention, activity has been consistent and steady throughout all of Atlanta. The I-20 West/Fulton Industrial, Northwest Atlanta, North Central, and Snapfinger/I-20 East submarkets have all seen their industrial vacancy rates drop to their lowest levels over the past couple of years thanks to solid and steady growth in manufacturing, logistics and e-commerce. It could be the larger submarkets are seeing the majority of activity because other areas such as these just do not have the supply available for the multitude of prospects in the market. All the same, the bulk of leasing, absorption, and construction remain most concentrated in Atlanta s largest industrial submarkets. This quarter s millionsquare foot leases by HD Supply and Saddle Creek Logistics highlight this fittingly. DEFINITIONS Absorption (Net)-The net change in occupied space over a given period of time, calculated by summing all the positive changes in occupancy and subtracting all the negative changes in occupancy. Vacancy Rate-A percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. Bulk Warehouse-A type of building designed to be used for bulk storage or materials, distribution or heavy manufacturing. Typically has a small amount of office space, ceiling heights of 24 and bay depths of over 190. Shallow-Bay Distribution-A type of building designed to be used for the distribution of materials or as a medium-sized manufacturing facility. Typically has 10%-30% of office, ceiling heights of and bay depths of Flex-A type of building designed to be versatile, which may be used in combination with office, R&D, quasi-retail sales and industrial warehouse and distribution uses. Typically has at least 50% office and ceiling heights under 18. Leasing Activity-The volume of square footage that is committed to and signed for under a lease obligation for a specific building or market in a given period of time. It includes direct leases, subleases and renewals of existing leases. It also includes any pre-leasing activity for buildings under construction or planned. Build-To-Suit-A term describing property that was developed specifically for a certain tenant to occupy. Can be either leased or owned by tenant. 4 Research & Forecast Report Q Atlanta Industrial Colliers International

5 Atlanta Industrial Market Update Existing Properties Vacancy Absorption Deliveries U/C Rent CLASS BLDGS EXISTING INVENTORY (SF) DIRECT VCY % SUBLET VCY % TOTAL VACANCY (SF) VCY CURR QTR % VCY PRIOR QTR % NET ABSORP CURR (SF) NET ABSORP YTD (SF) NEW SUPPLY CURR (SF) NEW SUPPLY YTD (SF) UNDER CONSTR (SF) AVG RENT RATE CENTRAL IND. Flex 88 2,355, % 0.2% 74, % 2.3% (20,479) (20,479) $18.40 Shallow-Bay 36 1,252, % - 14, % 1.4% 2,750 2, $10.50 Warehouse ,651, % - 588, % 5.0% (55,980) (55,980) $8.19 Total ,260, % 0.0% 677, % 4.2% (73,709) (73,709) $8.95 CHATTAHOOCHEE IND. Flex 101 3,910, % 0.0% 126, % 3.1% (5,179) (5,179) $17.00 Shallow-Bay , % 0.0% Warehouse ,076, % 0.6% 529, % 1.9% (220,441) (220,441) ,740 $7.45 Total ,865, % 0.5% 655, % 2.1% (225,620) (225,620) ,740 $8.48 I-20 W / FULTON IND. Flex 105 4,481, % - 61, % 1.8% 18,827 18, $8.31 Shallow-Bay ,987, % - 363, % 4.1% 164, , $3.62 Warehouse ,212, % 0.3% 5,944, % 7.1% 148, , ,619,995 $4.06 Total 1, ,680, % 0.3% 6,369, % 6.5% 332, , ,619,995 $4.13 NORTH CENTRAL IND. Flex 250 8,420, % 0.3% 620, % 7.6% 21,069 21, $9.77 Shallow-Bay 116 4,796, % - 417, % 9.3% 27,700 27, $6.50 Warehouse ,336, % - 446, % 3.0% 78,743 78, $5.33 Total ,553, % 0.1% 1,485, % 5.3% 127, , $7.55 NORTHEAST IND. Flex ,360, % 0.2% 1,671, % 10.1% 186, , $9.05 Shallow-Bay ,057, % 0.1% 1,574, % 5.0% (427,376) (427,376) $5.05 Warehouse 1, ,139, % 0.4% 12,399, % 7.0% 404, ,310 2,042,602 2,042,602 3,445,337 $4.20 Total 3, ,558, % 0.4% 15,645, % 7.0% 163, ,300 2,042,602 2,042,602 3,445,337 $4.58 NORTHWEST IND. Flex 296 9,138, % 0.3% 506, % 5.6% 24,840 24,840 19,079 19,079 48,000 $10.21 Shallow-Bay 221 9,357, % 0.1% 161, % 2.9% 111, , $5.21 Warehouse 1,015 55,287, % 0.2% 2,257, % 4.8% 427, ,842 11,900 11, ,500 $4.61 Total 1,532 73,783, % 0.2% 2,925, % 4.7% 564, ,215 30,979 30, ,500 $5.15 SNAPFINGER / I-20 EAST IND. Flex 109 2,461, % - 175, % 7.0% (2,700) (2,700) $6.98 Shallow-Bay 107 4,767, % 0.1% 621, % 6.7% (302,770) (302,770) $3.60 Warehouse ,955, % - 1,021, % 1.4% 4,633 4, , ,000 - $4.31 Total ,184, % 0.0% 1,818, % 2.2% (300,837) (300,837) 480, ,000 - $4.30 SOUTH IND. Flex 223 5,059, % 0.0% 181, % 3.6% 2,707 2, $10.05 Shallow-Bay ,615, % 1.0% 1,192, % 14.5% 344, , $3.50 Warehouse 1, ,676, % 0.1% 16,080, % 8.8% 2,734,537 2,734,537 4,408,273 4,408,273 8,127,609 $3.44 Total 1, ,351, % 0.2% 17,454, % 9.0% 3,082,091 3,082,091 4,408,273 4,408,273 8,127,609 $3.46 STONE MOUNTAIN IND. Flex 124 3,166, % - 430, % 14.8% 37,398 37, $6.69 Shallow-Bay 157 6,562, % - 374, % 4.9% (52,860) (52,860) $5.05 Warehouse ,583, % - 1,046, % 6.7% 134, , ,690 $3.75 Total ,312, % - 1,851, % 7.2% 119, , ,690 $4.58 MARKET GRAND TOTAL Flex 1,946 57,355, % 0.2% 3,849, % 7.1% 262, ,849 19,079 19,079 48,000 $9.16 Shallow-Bay 1,563 74,274, % 0.2% 4,720, % 6.2% (131,321) (131,321) $4.37 Warehouse 7, ,919, % 0.2% 40,313, % 6.6% 3,656,961 3,656,961 6,942,775 6,942,775 14,719,871 $4.00 Total 10, ,549, % 0.2% 48,882, % 6.6% 3,788,489 3,788,489 6,961,854 6,961,854 14,767,871 $4.32 Quarterly Comparisons and Totals QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS Q , ,549, % 0.2% 48,882, % 6.6% 3,788,489 3,788,489 6,961,854 6,961,854 14,767,871 $4.32 Q , ,588, % 0.2% 45,709, % 7.3% 6,745,091 24,345,191 2,136,893 18,123,440 18,780,484 $4.22 Q , ,451, % 0.3% 50,317, % 7.1% 4,549,752 17,600,100 6,703,743 15,986,547 15,415,188 $4.13 Q , ,747, % 0.3% 48,163, % 7.4% 5,955,376 13,050,348 4,308,902 9,282,804 18,516,872 $4.15 Q , ,438, % 0.3% 49,810, % 7.7% 7,094,972 7,094,972 4,973,902 4,973,902 18,915,545 $4.15 NOTE: STATISTICAL SET INCLUDES ALL INDUSTRIAL PROPERTIES 10,000 SF AND UP, EXCLUDING HEAVY MANUFACTURING PROPERTIES. WHILE COSTAR ATTEMPTS TO PROVIDE THE MOST ACCURATE DATA AT THE END OF EVERY QUARTER, REVISIONS ARE MADE THROUGHOUT THE YEAR ACCOUNTING FOR DISCREPANCIES IN PAST REPORTING. SOURCES: COSTAR PROPERTY, COLLIERS RESEARCH 5 Research & Forecast Report Q Atlanta Industrial Colliers International

6 Atlanta Industrial Submarkets Canton Cartersville Emerson BARTOW CO. PAULDING CO. COBB CO. PAULDING CO. Douglasville Newnan COWETA CO. BARTOW CO. CHEROKEE CO. Powder Springs Acworth Austell COBB CO. DOUGLAS CO. Palmetto Allatona Lake NORTHWEST Fairburn MARIETTA SMYRNA Chattachoochee River Union City er I-20 WEST / FULTON INDUSTRIAL Woodstock FAYETTE CO. Peachtree City CHEROKEE CO. CHATTAHOOCHEE INDUSTRIAL Fayetteville CLAYTON CO. COBB CO. EAST POINT COLLEGE PARK HAPEVILLE Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Mountain Park Riverdale Roswell CHEROKEE CO. Jonesboro HENRY CO. CLAYTON CO. FORSYTH CO. Alpharetta DORAVILLE CHAMBLEE DECATUR FOREST PARK SOUTH NORTH CENTRAL CENTRAL Avondale Estates 675 HENRY CO. FORSYTH Cumming FULTO N CO. CO. e Chattachoochee Norcross GWINNETT CO. River Duluth STONE MOUNTAIN Clarkston Stone INDUSTRIAL Mountain SNAPFINGER I-20 EAST Stockbridge Lake Lanier Lithonia ROCKDALE CO. McDonough Sugar Hill NORTHEAST HALL CO. GWINNETT CO. Lawrenceville Snellville 316 Buford GWINNETT CO. WALTON CO. ROCKDALE CO. NEWTON CO. GAINESVILLE BUTTS CO. Bra Submarket Size & Occupancy INDUSTRIAL SUBMARKETS The Atlanta industrial market consists of nine submarkets. They include Central Atlanta, Chattahoochee Industrial, I-20 West/Fulton Industrial, North Central Atlanta, Northeast Atlanta, Northwest Atlanta, Snapfinger/I-20 East, South Atlanta and Stone Mountain Industrial. The major interstates in the region include: I-75, I-85, I-285, I-575, I-985, I-675 and I-20. Georgia 400 and US 316 also play important roles to Atlanta s transportation system. Conyers SUBMARKET Covington SIZE OCCUPANCY % Northeast Atlanta msf 92.1% South Atlanta msf 90.5% I-20 West/Fulton Ind msf 93.8% Northwest Atlanta 73.8 msf 96.0% Snapfinger/I-20 East 47.2 msf 96.1% North Central Atlanta 30.6 msf 95.1% Stone Mountain 27.3 msf 93.2% Chattahoochee Ind 20.9 msf 96.9% Central Atlanta 14.3 msf 95.2% FOR MORE INFORMATION Scott Amoson VP, Director of Research Atlanta scott.amoson@colliers.com Bob Mathews President & CEO Atlanta bob.mathews@colliers.com Copyright 2017 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International Atlanta Promenade Suite Peachtree Street, NE Atlanta, Georgia, colliers.com/atlanta 6 North American Research & Forecast Report Q Office Market Outlook Colliers International