Renewable energy: towards a low carbon transition pathway

Transcription

1 Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies Renewable energy: towards a low carbon transition pathway CLAPES UC Workshop Santiago, June 8 th, 2017 Case study researchers: Lei Song (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and Ying Chen China Executive Leadership Academy Pudong Presented by: Dr Jenny Lieu, Co-Principal Investigator of TRANSrisk SPRU, Science Policy Research Unit

2 AGENDA Introduction to risk and uncertainty framing Case study of China urban and peri-urban areas Urban development and air pollution Low carbon transition pathways Risk: barriers and negative outcomes of pathways Challenges and opportunities for Chile

3 Definitions Uncertainty Incomplete knowledge Lack of information Disagreement of what is known? Risk Outcome is uncertain Potential for negative consequences Negative impact on livelihoods/society, environment, economy, and infrastructure Source: IPPC, 2014

4 Likelihood (uncertainty low to high) Outcome positive negative Implementation risk: potential for a policy to not be implemented, given a barrier Risk Benefit Synergy/ co-benefit: positive outcomes that have benefit on multiple scales: e.g. actors, context (political, social, environmental etc.) Consequential risk: potential of a policy to cause a negative consequence

5 C ASE STUDY: URBAN AND PERI- URBAN CITIES IN C HINA The growth of economy and rising income per capita improves indoor comfort Urbanization and population growth trigger the increasing new buildings and will dilute energy efficiency effects Shanghai and Beijing urban development Shanghai population: 25,202,000 Beijing population: 22,063,000 Source:

6 E NERGY MIX IN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR Figure 1: Residential sector energy consumption in selected non-oecd regions by energy source, 2012 and 2040 (percent of total) Source:

7 A IR QUALITY COMPARISONS ACROSS COUNTRIES Figure 2: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (micrograms per cubic meter) Source:

8 G ROWING URBANISATION TREND Figure 3: Urban population (% of total) Source:

9 A IR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE Increasing extreme climate events such as heat waves, extreme cold trigger more energy consumption for heating and cooling Air pollution (smog) is a serious problem in Northern China Heating seasons are different, e.g. in Beijing, November- March every year Longer in Xinjiang, Inter-Mongolia and North-east China area Figure 4 & 5 Beijing peri- urban, Daxing district

10 A IR QUALITY Coal burning is the top emission source of PM2.5 (about 22%) in Beijing Air quality is getting better in terms of average Air Quality Indicators. Days PM2.5>100 decreased in Beijing but air pollution in winter is getting worse Figure 4: Beijing Days PM2.5>100

11 A IR QUALITY INDICATOR: CITY COMPARISON Source: Aire Santiago

12 C ONTEXT: HEATING IN BUILDINGS Burning low quality coal for heating in winter Boiler and coal sources is the most commonly used heating system in North China. Traditional biomass is main sources for heating in peri-urban buildings in these cold regions. Biomass or coal ovens in peri-urban area emit much more pollutants than large boilers in urban areas Traditional biomass oven New coal oven

13 L OW CARBON TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR BUILDINGS IN C HINA Pathway 1: Energy efficiency (urban buildings) New building: green building codes, voluntary standards Retrofits and renovations: wall, roof insulation, doors, windows, and energy efficiency improvement in heating and ventilating Pathways 2: Low carbon energy mix (peri-urban buildings) Evolution of energy profiles in urban and peri-urban The share of electricity and natural gas will dramatically increase Distributed energy including micro-grids, combined heat & power and renewable energy

14 P OLICY M IX: TARGET SETTING National policies Five Year Plan (FYP) ( ) Retrofits of existing building: target of 5% per year Energy efficiency for new buildings: target of 20% per year Renewable energy: target of 6% in 2020 (4% in 2015) National Determined Contribution (NDC) targets for green building and energy efficiency Increase share of green building to 50% for new buildings by 2020 Reusing building waste, increase quality of building climate resilience Regulations for local/regions government FYP: Energy use for heating reduced by 15% per year in northern regions No coal for heating in all villages by 2020 Estimated to reduce 2.02 million coal burning, 5.4 million tons of CO 2, 50 thousand tons of SO 2, and 14.6 thousand tons of NOx

15 TARGET IMPLEMENTATION In Beijing, the local government makes great effort to promote coal to gas and coal to electricity programs in peri-urban areas By Nov. 2016, 663 villages, over 200 thousand households have completed the coal to electricity program Households can receive free electricity heater and use electricity in very low price (0.1 yuan/kwh) at night In Shanghai, subsidies for green building are combined with the energy efficiency rating system Subsidies for: assembled monolithic building, green buildings, retrofitting building, renewable energy, greening roof projects Natural gas heater in Beijing Rural house in Beijing

16 PATHWAY 1: E NERGY EFFICIENCY URBAN BUILDINGS IN C HINA Implementation barriers Government investment for urban building retrofit Beijing has funds but other cities can not afford this Ownership issues: Residents cannot reach agreement for retrofit Different interests of tenants and owners Noise and inconvenience for residents during construction Negative outcomes Behaviour of residents do not change leads and does not lead to reduced energy consumption or carbon emissions Imbalanced heat distribution off-sets energy efficiency

17 PATHWAY 2: L OW CARBON ENERGY IN PERI- URBAN BUILDINGS IN C HINA Implementation barrier: Most of buildings in peri- urban area have poor insulation performance Heating with electric heater is slow, uncomfortable indoor temperature Heating cost of electricity much higher than coal Households receive subsidies but worry about the viability of subsidy policy Negative consequences: The electricity use of each householders increase 5 times Risks in power grid Some households receive free electric heaters but use coal again Natural gas burning emits NOx relevant to PM2.5 Increase import of natural gas Peri- urban house in Shanghai

18 L EARNING FROM C HINA & C HALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES FOR C HILE Learning from China Differentiated approach for different climatic regions Air pollution and urban development links Social and political priority Strong regulatory framework Challenges for Chile Increasing income Growing density in cities vs. suburban sprawl Trade-offs: economy over environment? $ Opportunities Urban development in an integrated approach- human dimension Develop new sectors Other areas to explore in Chile Data collection needs to improve: new construction builds Transportation: private vs. public Disappearance per-urban agriculture

19 RISK & UNCERTAINTIES: POTENTIAL FUTURES Thank-you! Jenny Lieu TRANSrisk Co- Principal Investigator

20 D ECREASING CO2 EMISSION TREND PER PPP$ PF GDP Figure 3: CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) Source:

21 C HINA S CONTRIBUTION TO CO 2 Figure 2: CO2 emissions (kt), 2013 Source: