Informing risk management with insights from water information

Transcription

1 10/27/2015 Informing risk management with insights from water information Janice Green & Matthew Hardy Bureau of Meteorology AWA NSW Engineers & Operators Conference 2015 Australia has highly variable rainfall We frequently lurch from drought to flood and back 1

2 Australia has highly variable streamflow Coefficient of variation mean annual streamflow Water managers have a lot to worry about Water security Water use behaviour Urban growth Who is entitled to use water, when and under what conditions? Drainage Allocation How much is allocated to the environment and when? How Environ is the mental reliability flows of entitlements changing? Drought 2

3 Managing water Balancing supply & demand responsibly Reducing risk To reduce risk need information Comprehensive High quality Easily accessible Supply Augment: dams, desalination, aquifer storage Substitute: recycling, stormwater, groundwater Efficiency: leak detection, irrigation upgrades Resilience: interconnects, water trading Demand Suppress: restrictions, sustainable diversion limits Substitute: rainwater and stormwater harvesting Efficiency: appliances, crop watering Behaviour: information campaigns Market Price: tariff reform Trade: water market reform, state trade registers Regulate: economic and price regulators National Plan for Water Security A new role for the Bureau Bureau part of Prime Minister's ten point plan National water information function Water Act 2007 $450 m investment over ten years $80 m provided to data collecting agencies Three new functions Water Data Management Water Reporting Water Forecasting 3

4 Integrating water, weather and climate data Numerical Weather Predictions Hydrologic models Awareness Perspective Forecasting Data warehouse Uses of water information Improve water management, policy planning and evaluation 1. Assessment: Understand where we have come from; know where we are at all times 2. Evaluation: Judge how we are tracking; think through how we could do better 3. Foresighting: Anticipate the future; pre-position for change 4. Accountability: Be transparent with stakeholders; welcome scrutiny; build trust 5.Education: Build 'water literacy'; explain what we do and why; bust myths 4

5 Water information applications Enhancing decisions & reducing risk across all time scales Emergency management River diversions, environmental flows Water allocation Water restrictions Flood plain management Supply augmentation HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES Stairway to insight Urban National Performance Report National Water Account Australian Water Resources Assessment model (AWRA model) Intensity-Frequency-Duration Design Rainfalls Climate Resilient Water Sources Australian Groundwater Explorer National Water Market Portal Water Data Online Forecasting National reporting Analysis Modelling Integration Sharing Local reporting Archiving Quality assurance Rare Precious Uncommon Very high value Monitoring Common High value 5

6 New design rainfalls New IFDs released July 2013 Based on more extensive database 30 years more data 2300 extra stations Contemporary techniques Better estimates New design rainfalls New IFDs released July 2013 Based on more extensive database 30 years more data 2300 extra stations Contemporary techniques Better estimates Very frequent & rare design rainfalls Very frequent 1 month to 12 month ARIs 6

7 Very frequent design rainfalls Source WSUD Guideline Method Hastings Council Stormwater Management Design Storm equivalent to a 3 month ARI storm event 40% of 1 year ARI storm event Parramatta City Council Stormwater Asset Plan 3 month ARI storm event 0.5 x Q 1year (flow) South Australia Government 3 month design flows Logarithmic extrapolation of design flows from AR&R87 NSW State Government Stormwater Source Control 3 month ARI rainfall event 25% x 1 year ARI (rainfall) Gold Coast City Council Factors applied to 1 in 1 year ARI 3 month ARI = 0.50 x 1:1 year ARI Very frequent design rainfalls To be released November 2015 Standard durations of: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 hours 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 days Standard probabilities of: 6, 4, 3, 2, and 1 month ARI (2, 3, 4, 6 and 12 EY) Will be available via web 7

8 New design rainfalls New IFDs released July 2013 Based on more extensive database 30 years more data 2300 extra stations Contemporary techniques Better estimates Very frequent & rare design rainfalls Very frequent 1 month to 12 month ARIs Rare 100 year to 2000 year ARI To be released November 2015 Rare design rainfalls To be released November 2015 Rare design rainfalls 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 days 1 in 200; 500; 1000; 2000 AEP (200; 500; 1000; 2000 ARI) Areal reduction factors 8

9 Water Storages Tracking the status of 98% of Australia s public water storage capacity 310 storages tracked ~81,000 GL capacity National coverage Continuously updated Standardised reporting iphone app version available Water Data Online River data at your fingertips River heights River discharges Other data to come Full national coverage ~3,500 stations Standardised presentation One-stop shop for viewing and downloads 9

10 10/27/2015 Hydrologic Reference Stations Baseline hydrologic data Long-term trend analysis for ~220 unimpaired catchments Geofabric Australian Hydrological Geospatial Fabric Based on national Digital Elevation Model Maps relationships between rivers water bodies monitoring points Available via a web service 10

11 National Water Account A statutory reporting obligation under the Water Act (2007) Reported annually Standardised approach 10 biggest systems Water entitlements Water available Water allocations Water trades Water used 11

12 Water in Australia Telling the evolving national water story Annual national insight Integrates all information Climate to hydrology and water use Release December Total water use Monthly Water Update Monthly data Overview Rainfall and streamflow By drainage division Released September 12

13 Regional Water Information Maps, graphics, statistics Flexible regions Downloadable data Wide range of water and climate layers Release December Water Entitlements & Trades Tracking the ownership and trade of water 13

14 Climate Resilient Water Sources Industry collaboration Bureau of Meteorology National Centre of Excellence in Desalination Australia Australian Water Recycling Centre of Excellence CSIRO Climate Resilient Water Sources View and download data on Australia's alternative water sources recycled water desalinated water 14

15 National performance reporting Bureau: new service provider Governance: Round Table Group Key national messages from Residential water supply Median typical annual bill Customer satisfaction Flood forecasting service up to 1 day Collect and publish river height and rainfall data Prepare watches, warnings and predictions Deliver briefings to government, emergency services and media National operations team Training and competency Investing in systems 15

16 Short-term Streamflow Forecasting Service River flow forecasts for the next 7 days Updated daily Targeted at river and storage operations Useful for heads up flood guidance 60 catchments in system so far Public release in June 2015 Seasonal streamflow forecasts Forecasts updated monthly for 112 locations for the 3 months ahead 16

17 Case study: Icon Water (ACT) Seasonal streamflow forecasts available for the ACT Icon Water helped the Bureau in experimental phase to refine products Case study to highlight the use of forecasts in decision making Forecasts provide reduced uncertainty Australian Groundwater Explorer 17

18 Australian Groundwater Explorer Australian Groundwater Explorer 18

19 Australia's water information Supporting decisions & mitigating risk in variable climate Water is big business many actors, perspectives, inter-dependencies risky business Inherent climate and rainfall variability Authoritative water information for: infrastructure design and investments water allocation and trading rural water productivity and food security drought and flood preparedness 19