Integrated Urban Services: concept and research needs

Transcription

1 Department of Meteorology Integrated Urban Services: concept and research needs Sue Grimmond 1, Alexander Baklanov 2,Deon Terblanche 2, Tang Xu 2, Gufran Beig, Barbara Brown, Greg Carmichael, Chen Baode, Fang Zheqing, Gerald Fleming, Agustin Garcia, Haleh Kootval 2, Li Hong, Karla Longo, Mu Haizen, Peng Li, Shi Jianping, Jianguo Tan, Luisa Molina, Woo Wang-chun, Zhang Jianlei, Liisa Jalkanen 2 1 Department of Meteorology, University of Reading 2 WMO, Geneva, Switzerland Acknowledge: WMO, Shanghai Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Met Office Funding from: Met Office/ Newton Fund CSSP- China, NERC ClearfLo, EU Bridge, Met Office, NSF, NERC/Belmont TRUC April 13, 2017 University of Reading 2017

2 Urban Areas Globally: Current Population and Growth Rates Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium 2

3 High density combined with other factors: e.g. coastal location Hurricane Sandy McGranhan et al. (2007) Environment and Urbanization Brahic (2007) New Scientist CIESIN Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium 3

4 Systems: interlinked Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium 4

5 Integrated weather, climate, water and related environmental services urban areas Grimmond et al. (2013) WMO IUWCES Report Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium 5 5

6 Wide range of applications SAFAR, India Shanghai Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium 6

7 Challenges: various kinds of scale interactions Prof. Dr. Stefan Emeis global scale/ climate regional scale urban scale street scale social system natural system technical system atmosphere biosphere atmos. dynamics atmos. composition hydrosphere anthroposphere astysphere heat/energy pedosphere Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium 7

8 Urban Weather & Climate Sensitive Applications Spatial Person Indoors Building Street Temporal Neighbourhood City Region Global Short term Human Comfort, Acute exposure (hazardous) Air quality Building Management Emergency response Construction Air pollution Dispersion Transport management Flooding Heat- humidity stress Fires Ecology Precipitation, Lightning Recreation events Aviation, Shipping operations Governance Precipitation, Lightning Air quality, Storm Surges Long term Chronic air quality exposure Building Management Energy use, Design Urban atmospheric information Air pollution, Energy is use relevant for a wide range of applications and stakeholders Water use, Energy use Climate/Water Sensitive Design Resource/Infrastructure Planning Air quality Air quality Urban Area impacted by CC e.g. Decision Makers/ People Need Information Individuals Energy suppliers First responders Architects Transportation management Planners Health/Medical Responders Retailers Forecasting City Politicians City to National Economics Insurance industry Energy Production/Transmission National/International Politicians Inter Governmental agencies Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium Grimmond (2012) Melbourne 8

9 Scales of the Urban Atmosphere Fernando (2010) Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium 9 9

10 Urban Atmospheric Processes Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium Cleugh and Grimmond (2012) 10 10

11 To provide solutions need to link surface properties to processes Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium Ward & Grimmond 2017: Landscape and Urban Planning (in press) 11

12 Numerical Prediction Challenges Wide range of scales Wide range of processes Lack of observations Rapid rate of change of variables and parameters in space - heterogeneity Changes in time Anthropogenic activities New urban areas Retrofitting of urban areas Numerous research needs, opportunities and demands Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium 12 12

13 Modelling challenges: scale H. Lean Current state of art NWP models km scale crudely represent larger cities Higher resolution NWP now feasible. Moving toward convergence with large domain V high res CFD Very large domain models represent large range of scales represented Urgent need to understand interactions between & relative importance of processes at different scales Surface temperature in UKV Urban fraction: research 55 m UM configuration 25 th July 2012 (ClearfLo) Vertical velocity at 293 m Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium 13

14 Key urban observations issues Need for observations of characteristics in the vertical Long tradition of surface measurements But transfer towards and away from the surface needs to be better understood Need meteorology and chemistry Fluxes of heat, water, CO 2, radiation Now been occurring in urban areas for many years (e.g. Grimmond et al Env. Poll.; Nemitz et al. 2002) Few long term ongoing measurements Changes in behaviour, technology, weather, climate, etc hard to understand if we do not have a current, ongoing measurements Infrastructure to install and maintain tall towers (so fluxes and variables are at an appropriate height) is large. Need to ensure facilities are a community effort for both routine and new research (e.g. new chemical analyses) Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium 14

15 Ecosystem and healthy living planning Info. dissemination & interaction Green energy Business cont planning Security of infrastructure & utilities Emergency risk management Public health and safety Adaption engineering Transportation, agriculture & food security m/host/0bwdvoc9aewjuazhkntdxrxuzoeu/bulletin_63-1_en.pdf Supporting Platform for Building a Climate Resilient Society Severe weather Risk mapping Airborne hazard Climate extreme Water related hazard Observation & modelling Integrated Urban Weather, Water and Environment DRR Service delivery including User Interface for Urban Climate Services Grimmond et al. 10 April 2017 GAW Symposium 15 15