The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on the Lebanese Power Sector and Priority Recommendations: Part 1. Survey & Methodology

Transcription

1 The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on the Lebanese Power Sector and Priority Recommendations: Part 1. Survey & Methodology Ministry of Energy and Water Energy Sector Workshop Tuesday February 21, 2017 Presented by Mohamad Naim

2 I. - Survey II. Methodology SITE SURVEY A representative survey to 350 Syrian families and 60 institutions across the country was undertaken in July Survey samples were selected based on the number of registered displaced Syrians in each village as per the UNHCR data as of June 30, The survey concentrated on collecting information related to the No. of families and persons living in each shelter unit (Non IS and IS) and the available household appliances in each shelter unit. Region Population % of Total No. of Samples Beirut & ML 298, % 110 Bekaa 375, % 100 North 255, % 80 South 119, % 60 Total 1,048, % 350 2

3 I. - Survey II. Methodology METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY - ADOPTED APPROACHES Two scientific approaches are adopted to calculate the power consumption of the displaced Syrians in Lebanon: Through sampling/survey data to calculate the power consumption of each shelter unit based on the available household appliances irrespective of the number of persons living in each shelter unit. Through analysis of the load profile of EDL MV feeders supplying each region during the period , taking year 2012 as the base year, and correlating the increase in load on each MV feeders with the number of displaced Syrians in the region supplied by the particular feeders. 3

4 I. - Survey II. Methodology METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY - SAMPLING/ SURVEY DATA APPROACH Calculated the Total Connected Load (TCL) of the available household appliances in each shelter unit as per the survey data. Calculated the Average Connected Load per shelter unit. Calculated the Average Power Consumption per shelter unit. For Non IS shelter units, a factor of 0.5 (Demand Factor * Diversity Factor) is applied to calculate the Average Power Consumption per shelter unit. For Non IS shelter units, the number of families is converted to number of shelter units using the survey data. The Total Power Consumption is calculated by multiplying the Average Power Consumption per shelter unit * NR of units for each shelter type. 4

5 I. - Survey II. Methodology SURVEY DATA Average Power Consumption of Displaced Syrians in Lebanon as per Survey Data Region Beirut & ML Bekaa North South Shelter Type No. of Visited Shelters Total No. of Units in Visited Shelters % of Total No. of Units in Visited Shelters No. of Persons in Visited Shelter Units Survey Data No. of Families in Visited Shelter Units Average No. of Persons/ Family Total Connected Load of Household Appliances of Visited Shelter Units (kw) Average Connected Load of Household Appliances / Shelter Unit (kw) Average Power Consumpti on/ Shelter Unit (kw) Average No. of Supply Hours/ Day Non IS % IS % Total % Non IS % IS 62 1,002 89% Total 100 1, % Non IS % IS % Total 80 1, % Non IS % IS % Total %

6 I. - Survey II. Methodology METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY - ANALYSIS OF EDL DATA APPROACH 1. Econometrics and forecasting techniques are employed to validate the monthly power consumption calculated using EDL data taking into consideration the seasonal variation in power consumption. 2. Taking the South region as a sample, the Average Peak Power Consumption per Family is shown in the table below. Column 1 Year Column 2 Average Loads (AMP) Column 3 Population Growth Column 4 Estimated Loads Base Year 2012 (AMP) Column 5 Load Growth Base Year 2012 (AMP) Column 6 Adjusted Average Loads Per Quarter (AMP) ,427 20, ,427 Column 7 Change in Adjusted Average Annual Loads (AMP) Column 8 Change in Adjusted Average Annual Load (KW) Column 9 Change in Number of Families (Base Year 2012) Column 10 Average Consumption per Family (KW with Base Year 2012) , % 20, ,437 3,010 62,558 21, , % 20, ,797 2,371 49,269 30, , % 21, , ,466 27, , % 21,689 1,262 22,479 2,052 42,654 26, Average

7 The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on the Lebanese Power Sector and Priority Recommendations: Part 2. Study Results, Recommendations & Prioritization of Interventions Ministry of Energy and Water Energy Sector Workshop Tuesday February 21, 2017 Presented by Robert Sfairy, PMP Senior Energy Consultant - MoEW

8 I. STUDY RESULTS II. RECOMMENDATIONS III. PRIORITIZATION OF INTERVENTIONS 8

9 STUDY RESULTS 9

10 STUDY RESULTS As per the survey results, the direct average electricity consumption of the Displaced Syrians was determined per type of shelter unit and per region with an overall average of 1.16KW/shelter The survey results were validated by comparing to actual EDL historical data for the south region Transmission and distribution technical losses were considered to obtain the overall impact 10

11 STUDY RESULTS Indirect electricity consumption of the Displaced Syrians was also noticed as follows: - In Schools hosting Syrian students having to work additional 4-hour shift, knowing that there are 85,487 displaced students in 238 schools across Lebanon - In Municipalities/Water Establishments having to operate water pumps for longer hours to cover the increase in water demand in each area 11

12 STUDY RESULTS The study considered different scenarios based on two variables: 1. Number of Displaced Syrians (Spread over 84% of the villages in Lebanon) UNHCR data as of June 30, ,048,267 DGGS data 1,500,000 (+10% to +23%) 2. Number of supply hours per day per region Survey data (average 9 hours) EDL data (average 14 hours) 12

13 STUDY RESULTS Scenario 4 - DGGS Data (1,500,000 D.S.) MW GWHr / Year Direct Impact 447 2,310 Indirect Impact Schools Hospitals - - Municipalities Total 486* 2,335** * Around 30% of EDL power generation ** Around 19% of EDL energy production per year 13

14 STUDY RESULTS Regional Distribution of Direct Power Consumption South, 57, 13% North, 87, 19% Beirut & ML, 163, 37% Bekaa, 140, 31% 14

15 STUDY RESULTS Demand was obtained at the governorate level as well at the caza level Power Consumption of Displaced Syrians in Lebanon per Caza (DGGS Data) - Beirut & ML Region Power Consumption of Displaced Syrians in Lebanon per Caza (DGGS Data) - Bekaa Region 300, , , , , , ,003 No. of Persons No. of Families No. of Shelter Units 300, , ,000 No. of Persons No. of Families No. of Shelter Units Power Consumption (KW) 100,000 50,000 26,645 40,341 13,666 21,750 28,039 3,152 8,411 Power Consumption (KW) 150, ,000 50,000 42,513 1,714 2,985 20,118 54, ,498 0 Aley Baabda Beirut Chouf El Meten Jbeil Kesrwane Total 0 Baalbak El Hermel Rachaya West Bekaa Zahle Total Power Consumption of Displaced Syrians in Lebanon per Caza (DGGS Data) - North Region Power Consumption of Displaced Syrians in Lebanon per Caza (DGGS Data) - South Region 300, , , , , ,000 No. of Persons No. of Families No. of Shelter Units Power Consumption (KW) 80,000 60,000 49,686 No. of Persons No. of Families No. of Shelter Units Power Consumption (KW) 100,000 50,000 30, ,850 16,496 4,617 16,368 3,455 75,816 40,000 20,000 3,000 9,848 2,649 1,222 3,310 18,468 11,189 0 Akkar Bcharre El Batroun El Dennie El Koura Tripoli Zgharta Total 0 Bent Jbeil El Nabatieh Hasbaya Jezzine Marjeyoun Saida Sour Total 15

16 STUDY RESULTS 1. Most of the shelter units do not have basic household appliances (fridge/washing machine) due to insufficient power capacity and quality, so power demand is expected to increase if power quality and capacity are improved 2. An average of 45% of the surveyed shelters do not have metered electricity connections (range from 36% in the North to 82% in Beirut & ML), which increases the grid non-technical losses 16

17 STUDY RESULTS 3. Increased demand, causes an additional burden on the already weak electricity network by damaging distribution transformers, cables, fuses, breakers, etc 4. Weakens quality of the supplied power in some areas where private diesel generators are turned ON even during EDL supply hours due to high voltage drop 5. Increases further the already high grid technical losses 17

18 RECOMMENDATIONS 18

19 RECOMMENDATIONS Short Term Energy Saving Bulbs Solar Water Heaters Solar Kits up to 2.5 KW Net-metering (Bulk Industrial/Commercial Customers) Demand Side Management Upgrade & Rehabilitate the MV/LV Distribution Network 19

20 RECOMMENDATIONS Medium Term (5 years) Distributed Generation Sources (DER) in areas with power demand up to 10 MW Street Lighting Retrofit (Sodium lamps to LED) Grid connected PV plants Wind Turbines/Farms (West Bekaa and Akkar) Hydro Plants (Refurbishment/New) PV Direct Water Pumping Technology (Irrigation & Water Distribution) Upgrade & Rehabilitate the Transmission Network 20

21 RECOMMENDATIONS Region Beirut & ML Bekaa North South Caza Name Caza Information Total No. of Persons Total Power Consumption (KW) Energy Saving Bulbs Solar Water Heaters Replace Street Lights Solar Water Pumps Specific Recommendations Solar Kits Distributed Generation Resource (DER) Grid- Connected PV Plant Reinforcement of EDL Network Refurbishment of Hydro Plants Aley 84,876 26,645 X X X X X Baabda 126,741 40,341 X X X X Beirut 36,656 13,666 X X X X Chouf 72,275 21,750 X X X X X El Meten 74,278 28,039 X X X X Jbeil 9,237 3,152 X X X X Kesrwane 23,361 8,411 X X X X Baalbak 177,276 42,513 X X X X X X X El Hermel 8,669 1,714 X X X X X Rachaya 14,189 2,985 X X X X X West Bekaa 92,098 20,118 X X X X X X X Zahle 244,814 54,168 X X X X X X Akkar 144,444 30,285 X X X X X X X Bcharre 3, X X X X El Batroun 20,020 3,850 X X X X El Dennie 81,398 16,496 X X X X X X El Koura 22,901 4,617 X X X X X Tripoli 74,906 16,368 X X X X X X Zgharta 17,611 3,455 X X X X Bent Jbeil 11,133 3,000 X X X X X El Nabatieh 35,606 9,848 X X X X X Hasbaya 7,956 2,649 X X X X X Jezzine 4,302 1,223 X X X X X Marjeyoun 10,536 3,311 X X X X X Saida 61,822 18,469 X X X X X Sour 39,010 11,189 X X X X X 21

22 PRIORITIZATION OF INTERVENTIONS 22

23 PRIORITIZATION OF INTERVENTIONS Areas where there is no EDL grid or insufficient capacity to operate basic household appliances: Akkar, West Bekaa, Dennie Areas of high settlements concentration: Baalbak, West Bekaa, Akkar, Tripoli, Dennie, Saida Areas where PV solar kits and solar water heaters are easy to install: Baalbak, Hermel, Rachaya, West Bekaa, Zahle, Akkar, Dennie, Tripoli, Nabatieh, Saida, Sour 23

24 Robert Sfairy, PMP Senior Energy Consultant - MoEW robertsfairy@gmail.com 24