BIOFUEL-INDUCED GLOBAL LAND USE CHANGE: SOME STRATEGIES FOR MANAGING THE RISK

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1 BIOFUEL-INDUCED GLOBAL LAND USE CHANGE: SOME STRATEGIES FOR MANAGING THE RISK World Renewable Energy Forum Climate Change and Renewable Energy - Technical Session Helena L. Chum and Ethan Warner May 15, 2012 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

2 2 Outline GHG o Inventories, Budgets, Fluxes o Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry o Land Use and Cover Change Cause and Effect Bioenergy the Most Complex Renewable Energy o No agreement of experts on the magnitude of biofuel-induced land use change o Land use for agriculture, forestry, bioenergy, other ecosystems services, the built environment all need to be considered/planned, preferably in an integrated way. o Examples low risk strategies

3 Main GHG emissions sources, sinks, and processes in managed ecosystems NMVOC=non-methane volatile organic compounds HWP=harvested wood products IPCC (2006). Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

4 GHG Emissions and Sinks Inventory Country Example UNFCCC reporting -- by IPCC Sector INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: EPA 430-R April 15, 2012 Accounting By Sector 4

5 5 Western Canada s Mountain Pine Beetle infestation and random forest fires ttp://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/ ems/6598.php

Forest Resource Assessment 2010 (233 countries and areas) Fluxes

6 Global Carbon Budget (Static) and Fluxes Global networks of researchers measure GHG emissions and fluxes FAO/UN Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010 (233 countries and areas) Fluxes Global Carbon Project

CO 2 Emissions from Land Use Change CO 2 emissions (PgC

7 PgC Dashed line previous estimate. Time (y) http://www.

7 CO 2 Emissions from Land Use Change CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) ±0.7 PgCy ±0.7 PgCy s Emissions: 1.5±0.7 PgC Emissions: 1.1±0.7 PgC Dashed line previous estimate. Time (y) Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010

8 LUC Forest Sinks Reduced Deforestation

The current global energy system is dominated by fossil fuels

1% 2008 Energy Sources Shares of Total Global Primary Energy

Traditional biomass 17% Modern biomass 8% Solar

10 The current global energy system is dominated by fossil fuels Traditional Biomass, 6.1% Modern Biomass, 4.1% 2008 Energy Sources Shares of Total Global Primary Energy Supply 2008 Heat Demand: All renewables share: 27% Traditional biomass 17% Modern biomass 8% Solar thermal/geothermal 2% 2008 Electricity shares 2008 Global Road Transport Fuel Demand: Biofuels share 2%

11 Land use change and biofuels Is there a direct link with biofuel production? Searchinger, T., et al Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increased greenhouse gases through land use change. Science.

13 Strategy to reduce the risk of biofuel-induced GHG Gilberto Câmara, INPE, Modelling Human-Environment Interactions: Theories and Tools, Vespucci Summer School 2010,

14 Gilberto Câmara, INPE, Modelling Human-Environment Interactions: Theories and Tools, Vespucci Summer School 2010,

15 Enables understanding of land use causes and effects of policies 15

16 Gilberto Câmara, INPE, Modelling Human-Environment Agent based modeling Interactions: Theories and Tools, Vespucci Summer School 2010, 16

Voluntary standards organization assessing extent of LUC from satellite and other data Workstream 3 (Science Panel) of GHG-WG2, RSPO, Presented at RSPO

17 Voluntary standards organization assessing extent of LUC from satellite and other data Workstream 3 (Science Panel) of GHG-WG2, RSPO, Presented at RSPO RT8, 9 Nov. 2010, Jakarta, n-2-1-fahmuddin-agusreducing-ghg-emissions-fromland-use-change-for-oil-palmdevelopment-1465.pdf

Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil 18 Sustainability frameworks and standards development are helping to continue the development of sustainable sources of biofuels.

18 Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil 18 Sustainability frameworks and standards development are helping to continue the development of sustainable sources of biofuels. Similar efforts ongoing in Sustainable Agriculture and Forestry driven by partnerships of industry, NGOs, trade associations and governments are under way. Roundtable 9, RSPO, November, 2011, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia.

19 Strategy to improve all resource utilization and facilitate flexible policy development with measures of success and a monitoring system 19

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22 22 Needs Many different levels of modeling by diverse fields to be applied Improved modeling and data from the bottom up and from the top down Integrated analysis of land use strategies (e.g., regional, or country) for current bioenergy/agriculture/forestry and potential options on a life cycle basis over time to inform decision makers on environmental, social, and economic impacts (multiple attributes). A sustainable biomass system is renewable. It may produce initial emissions but over time emissions are reduced and can become neutral or negative depending on the systems selected. GHG emissions are part of the climate mitigation picture. 22

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24 Acknowledgments The DOE Office of the Biomass Programs provided funding for this work through the International Sustainability activities. Collaboration and input from ORNL (Keith Kline), Alison Goss Eng (OBP), ANL and NREL colleagues is acknowledged

Tools for greenhouse gas (GHG) assessment for biofuels: a comparison

Task 38: Climate change effects of biomass and bioenergy systems Tools for greenhouse gas (GHG) assessment for biofuels: a comparison IEA Bioenergy Conference 2015 Helena Chum and Ethan Warner National