Homes fit for zero: Dwellings in a zero-carbon climate-change future

Transcription

1 Homes fit for zero: Dwellings in a zero-carbon climate-change future 26 th February 2013 Prof Phil Banfill P.F.G.Banfill@hw.ac.uk

2 Homes fit for Heroes Lloyd George, 1919

3 It s a free country! Source: The Swan, Arborfield. Christmas lights

4 Urban Energy Research Group Formed 2005 Multi-disciplinary group Currently 7 members of staff ~15 PhD students 3.5m external funding awarded ~100 academic publications (journals and conferences) + other non-academic reports

5 Core research themes Building performance simulation/modelling Low and zero-carbon buildings Historic and traditional buildings Fuel poverty Life-cycle assessment Energy consumption monitoring / modelling Adaptation to future climates All with a focus on the building user.

6 Research projects Tarbase (EPSRC/Carbon Trust) Historic and traditional buildings (Historic Scotland + PhD) Concrete to Cookers (EPSRC) Building - low carbon climate change future (EPSRC ARCC) Measures for solid wall dwellings - CALEBRE (RCUK/E.on) Adaptation and resilience in energy systems (EPSRC ARCC) Office buildings refurbishment and LCA (PhDs) Schools and factories energy utilisation (PhDs) Wind farms community involvement (PhD) Fuel poverty and refurbishment campaigns Whole life analysis of building components (RAEng)

7 Research question #1 How can we refurbish existing homes?

8 Tarbase to reduce CO 2 emissions Economics User-behaviour Social trends Future climate CO 2 intensity of grid Embodied carbon 2005 Variant Demand-side interventions Supply-side interventions 2030 Variant

9 Potential CO 2 savings Thermal demand reduction measures Micro-wind turbine Electricity demand reduction measures Solar Photovoltaics CO2 emissions savings (% of 2005 baseline) New boiler Demand side only 93% Boiler 93% Boiler 93% Boiler mchp 93% Boiler 93% Boiler 1kW 15% µchp 3kW 30% µchp CO2 emissions savings (% of 2005 baseline) 1.5kW turbine Low wind site 1.5kW turbine High wind site 1.3kWp 14% Solar pv 3.9kWp 14% Solar pv

10 Costed intervention sets solid wall dwelling Loft Lights External wall insulation (rear of dwelling) External wall insulation (full house) Infiltration and MVHR Appliances Glazing Cumulative Emissions reduction (% of 2005 baseline) Tyndall Centre target (2030) Carbon Vision buildings target (2030) 32k 26k 3.5k Intervention Set 1 Intervention Set 2 Intervention Set 3

11 What about the occupants? Question: Would you consider buying a set of measures that will: a) save 60% of current fuel bills at capital cost of 10,000 b) save 40% at a cost of 5,000. c) save 20% at a cost of 1, Very Interested Fairly interested Not very interested Not at all interested Don t know Very Interested Fairly interested Not very interested Not at all interested Don t know Very Interested Fairly interested Not very interested Not at all interested Don t know % respondents a) b) c)

12 Tarbase conclusions Cost-effective measures do exist but will not produce deep-cut CO 2 savings 50+% CO 2 reduction in the domestic sector is technically achievable but could cost ~ 340bn for entire stock. Who will pay? Will the Green Deal really fill this gap? The Tarbase Domestic Model is available as a consultancy service

13 Project CALEBRE MVHR investigation Ducts in service void Inlet grilles at high level controllable Sensors in ducts - airflow, temp, rh Room sensors for CO 2, VOCs etc Why is it important? Air leakage is a waste of energy. MVHR recovers heat from extractor systems. Is promoted as a retrofit measure. Research questions: What is the relationship between air-tightness and MVHR energy saving? How difficult is achieving airtightness in retrofit? Can we use the results to model predicted performance?

14 MVHR workmanship problems

15 House sealing challenges

16 Project CALEBRE Modelled energy consumption with MVHR Annual Energy Consumption (MWh) Natural Ventilation 5 achieved in E.On House after a lot of work! MVHR Minimum Building Standards Building Air Permeability (m 3 /m 50 Pa) Space Heating Auxiliary MVHR Best Practice Standards

17 Project CALEBRE CO 2 emissions with MVHR 5 achieved in E.On House after a lot of work! Annual CO 2 Emissions (kg.co 2 ) Natural Ventilation MVHR Minimum Building Standards Building Air Permeability (m 3 /m 50 Pa) Space Heating Auxiliary MVHR Best Practice Standards

18 MVHR conclusions MVHR systems can save some energy and CO 2 but must be properly installed and balanced, and the house made sufficiently airtight. Don t prioritise your Green Deal money on it. Making the house sufficiently airtight would negate the features that some homeowners value in their homes.

19 Research question #2 How can we design for the future?

20 Homes: Building adaptation for low carbon climate change future Latest (UKCP09) climate predictions are probabilistic How can designers use them? Need to present simply Model building performance Assess risks of failure (e.g overheating) Future proofing of buildings Each climate is equally likely 2050

21 Example future climate 2080s medium emissions 10 percentile 50 percentile 90 percentile Rise in mean summer temp C This requires a statistical approach to manage the complexity

22 Outcomes Using a statistical simplification for building performance simulation Produced a tool that emulates 1000s of building simulations from a single simulation Model-based risk analysis of building failure due to climate change Overheating Cooling loads Design tool launch 2013

23 Adaptation and Resilience in Energy Systems (ARIES) How will future climate and energy use affect the resilience and suitability of supply systems? Project building energy demand into the future. Need to jump from individual dwelling energy demand to aggregated demand.

24 7 6 Individual dwelling profile What do these profiles tell us? Electrical Demand (kw) Refrigeration cycle 0 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Heating elements (cookers, kettles etc) Consumer electronics, lighting etc

25 7 Standby Residual Heating elements 6 Electrical Demand (kw) :00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Automatically filter different energy categories

26 Multi-dwelling profile :00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Electrical Demand per dwelling (kw)

27 Standby Residual Heating element spikes :00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Electrical Demand per dwelling (kw)

28 Potential uses It enables us to make bottom-up changes to reflect mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment Observe effect on energy demand profile Model different energy supply-side scenarios, e.g. Will high % of renewables on grid struggle to meet a demand profile with electric vehicles? Or electric heat pumps/added cooling etc? Highlight potential vulnerability.

29 Research question #3 How can we make better use of what we ve got?

30 Energy monitoring Normalised Power(kW/m2) Office 1 Office 2 Office 3 Office 4 How do we use energy? Knowledge enables action... Office: baseload level why? :00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Offices, schools, dwellings

31 Conclusions We know how to make homes fit for zero. It ll need heroic investment and a change in people s lifestyle and attitudes

32 Thank you for listening Contact details: Prof Phil Banfill - P.F.G.Banfill@hw.ac.uk Urban Energy Research Group (UERG) Institute of Building and Urban Design School of Built Environment Heriot-Watt University