THE STATE OF SOLAR POWER 2015

Transcription

1 THE STATE OF SOLAR POWER 2015 An overview of the present PV configurations, markets, and design for PV inverters Dimosthenis Katsis, Athena Energy Corp.

2 OVERVIEW A Tour of Solar and PV Products s and components of a solar PV system. Market breakdown PV s Case study in power conversion. What is in a PV inverter? Where is technology trending. SiC Micro s Energy Storage Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

3 AC Energy Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions SOLAR IN SEATTLE? 160 Seattle Baltimore Austin Spokane energy %change Seattle: 971 Baltimore: % Austin: % Spokane: % Month

4 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions COMPONENTS What it takes to make a solar PV system

5 STANDARD PV PANELS Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

6 HIGH PERFORMANCE PV PANELS Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

7 ROOF-INTEGRATED SOLAR Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

8 CONCENTRATING PV: MORE POWER / LESS AREA Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

9 INEXPENSIVE CONCENTRATOR MIRRORS Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

10 TRADITIONAL FOCUSING LENSES Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

11 PLASTIC CONCENTRATORS Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

12 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions BASIC PV CLASSIFICATIONS OFF-GRID ON-GRID

13 UTILITY INVERTERS Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

14 RESIDENTIAL STRING AND COMMERCIAL INVERTERS Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

15 PV GENERATION AND STORAGE Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

16 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions MICRO-INVERTERS APsystems Seattle, WA

17 RACKING SYSTEMS FOR PV PANELS Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

18 LOW-COST TRACKERS Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

19 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions SIMPLE DC SOLAR LIGHT Basic lighting and security systems W PV array Charge controller (PWM or MPPT) 12 24V Battery Integrated DAY/NIGHT load control Weather-proof box

20 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions BACKUP AND INTEGRATED PORTABLES Portable Fold-Out Solar Panels with a small AC power inverter Self contained small backup power Includes a small battery pack; heavy (about 120lbs)

21 BALANCE OF SYSTEM (BOS) Energy Monitoring Surge Protection Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

22 PV LIGHTING FOR DEVELOPING ECONOMIES Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

23 PV LIGHTING FOR DEVELOPING ECONOMIES Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

24 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions THE PV MARKET Growth up to 2015 According to IHS and GTM

25 PV INVERTER MARKET SHARE BY POWER LEVEL Source: IHS Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

26 SOLAR PV GENERATION % OF TOTAL POWER Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

27 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions DISTRIBUTED PV Defined as roof mounted home and commercial installations not part of a solar farm Small and medium solar systems (<100kW) 30% of global installations JAPAN will have largest share of this market (70%) USA installations will be about 2.2GW in 2015 Growth opportunities Continued strong growth in certain USA markets: CA, HI, CO, NY, NJ, MD, MA Large potential in India but not in very-near future (gov regs, supply chain, permits) Not much in China due to emphasis on large centralized inverters Japan Philippines

28 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions INVERTERS BY APPLICATION UTILITY Central s ( > 150 kw ) SMA, Power Electronics, Eaton, Parker-Hannafin, Solectria, Schneider Grid-Tie String s ( 3 < 66 kw ) Solectria, SolarEdge, GroWatt, Fronius Micro s ( 170W 1000W ) Enphase, APsystems Off-Grid Outback, Magnum, Schneider, SMA Hybrid Outback, Athena Energy

29 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions UTILITY SCALE SOLAR (LARGE INSTALLATIONS 20MW AND UP) VDC Strings DC VDC Strings VDC Strings Combiner Combiner DC Central Line Transformer 480VAC to 13.8kV or higher 150kW - 2MW s Combiner

30 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions DISTRIBUTED STRING INVERTERS (2 MW) 1000VDC Strings DC 1000VDC Strings 1000VDC Strings Combiner Combiner Combiner 3 DC DC 3 3 AC AC Combiner Switchgear Line Transformer 480VAC to 13.8kV or higher 30kW - 60kW s

31 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions COMMERCIAL ROOFS (MEDIUM INSTALLATIONS KW) VDC Strings DC VDC Strings VDC Strings Combiner Combiner Combiner AC Combiner DIS- CONNECT 208 / VAC Service 10kW - 30kW Single or three s

32 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions SMALL COMMERCIAL INSTALLATIONS: KW VDC Strings DC Combiner 1-3 AC / 1-3 Service DIS- CONNECT 10kW - 30kW s

33 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions HOME INSTALLATIONS (LARGER 10KW) 600 VDC Strings DC Rapid shutoff Combiner 1 AC DIS- CONNECT 240VAC 5kW - 10kW s

34 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions HOME INSTALLATIONS (SMALLER 6 KW) VDC Strings DC Rapid shutoff Combiner DC 1 AC 240VAC 240VAC DIS- CONNECT 1kW - 6kW s

35 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions MICRO INVERTER INSTALLATIONS (UP TO 8KW) DC AC 240V Combiner Comms Gateway PLC Powerline carrier DIS- CONNECT 1-240VAC 250W Individual s (i.e. 4000W system)

36 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions MICRO INVERTER INSTALLATIONS (COMMERCIAL 100KW) DC AC AC Communications PLC Powerline carrier DIS- CONNECT 3-208VAC 480VAC 250W Individual s

37 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions OVERALL INVERTER MARKET According to Navigant s s for Renewable Energy Applications : Renewable Energy Market: $19B by 2017 Biggest growth area is solar PV Yole Group forecast for inverter market >$60B in 2017

38 WHAT IS THE BREAKDOWN IN INSTALLED UNITS? Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

39 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN THE INVERTER MARKET Global inverter shipments are set to exceed 23.3 million units by A factor of 9 increase since 2010 Revenue will rise to $8.9 billion in 2014, up from $5.3 billion in Solar inverters are on track to become one of the world s highest-volume ruggedized electronic systems, IHS predicts 15 GW in Q4 of 2015 a new record for the industry Top 5 Markets 1. China 2. Japan 3. USA 4. UK 5. Germany Reference:

40 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions CASE STUDY: GRID-TIE PV AND INTEGRATED STORAGE A look at the emerging technology for the next stage of PV

41 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions MARKET OUTLOOK Global PV inverter shipments are expected to reach 50.6 GW in 2015 with a market size of $7.3 billion A factor of 9 increase since 2010 global market to grow another 9 percent in 2016 IPOs, new technologies, and storage integration are all reasons to be excited about the global PV inverter market in Solar Companies to Watch in 2015: Scott Moskowitz March 26, 2015 Enphase CEO Residential energy storage will be worth billions within 5 to 10 years $300M Market in Japan alone under a new gov. subsidy setup in 2015 USA Residential PV Penetration

42 PV AND STORAGE GROWTH OUTLOOK Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

43 LARGE / EXPANDABLE SOLUTIONS Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

44 INTEGRATED / MODULAR AND SMALL SOLUTIONS Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

45 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions PERFORMANCE EXPECTATIONS High peak power > 4kW for 5 seconds (some distortion allowed) Starting two refrigerators, sump pump + fridge, larger hand-tools High/Moderate power needs >2.5kW for 10 min. (distortion not allowed) Microwave + coffee maker, toaster, fridge-running Baseline power > 500W (clean power) Lights, computers, fridge-running, TV, fan

46 RESIDENTIAL CONFIGURATION Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

47 RESIDENTIAL Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

48 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions INTERFACE PV Converter DC/DC Battery converter DC/DC Utility Interface DC/AC

49 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions DESIGN PHILOSOPHY MPPT Battery Charger Non-isolated DC/DC Isolated Bridge Buck-boost AC Storage Battery

50 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions PV CONVERTER BATTERY CHARGER High voltage input DC/DC Low voltage output Buck topology PV Converter DC/DC Battery DC/AC Utility Interface AC/AC

51 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions PV CONVERTER - MPPT PV Converter DC/DC Battery DC/AC Utility Interface AC/AC

52 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions BATTERY INTERMEDIATE LINK High voltage input DC/DC higher voltage output Full-bridge isolated Boost topology PV Converter DC/DC Battery Converter DC/DC Utility Interface AC/AC

53 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions BATTERY INVERTER: AC SIDE High voltage input DC/AC higher voltage output Bridge topology PV Converter DC/DC Battery converter DC/DC Utility Interface DC/AC

54 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Where the PV market is Going

55 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions PV AND INVERTER TRENDS Strong US market growth for Distributed PV ARC fault and integrated rapid disconnect for PV systems UL 1741 with adjustable trip parameters (HI and CA) 1500VDC PV Renewable generation and storage (distributed PV) grid scale storage (utility-scale PV) New batteries

56 BATTERIES Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

57 UTILITY SCALE PV Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

58 COMPONENTS FOR INVERTERS: SI AND SIC Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

59 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions CONCLUSIONS SOLAR PANELS Components: silicon, glass, aluminum, almost gone from this year s conference (Move away from domestic manufacturing) Complete modules: suffering from consolidation / large players getting larger / USA brands almost gone CSP: reduction in interest in concentrating solar or applications Racking: Always looking for a less expensive racking soln. Racking for places like greenfield sites, challenging terrain otherwise unstable for buildings Trackers: Still strong after many years INVERTERS New, low cost PV array string inverters. Focus on high efficiency and low cost. Ease of installation. Three phase and higher-power commercial offerings in micro inverter landscape Lower cost HD wave, power packet, and low-reactive component count inverters BATTERIES Explosive growth in LFP battery providers and systems, integration of power electronics within battery Continued steady lead acid sales, same companies. Some startups using NaCl / Mg battery chemistry

60 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions CONCLUSIONS SOLAR THERMAL Economics of solar thermal are rapidly diminishing as US market embraces natural gas OFFGRID system providers Continued market penetration is holding steady but with no new product offerings besides LFP battery tech BALANCE of SYSTEM Huge growth in external combiner boxes, Array disconnect, PV safety disconnect Cable management, solar farm hardware, large inverter products 1500VDC class products MW-class inverters, 100, 250, 500 kw inverters Multi-level and multi-megawatt inverters

61 Components PV Market Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions CHALLENGES A change to the utility and regulatory landscape in the USA The loss (or reduction) of the ITC in 2016 Adjustments in building code to protect firefighters Rule 21 for California Rule 14 for Hawaii Loss of net metering in a growing number of states Energy Storage The dominant grid-connected option for new solar installations in Europe The emerging growth market for solar in the US

62 ALSO SOLAR

63 THANKS TO YOU THE STATE OF SOLAR POWER 2015 Dimosthenis Katsis, PhD. Athena Energy Corp. Seattle, WA FACEBOOK: athenaenergysolar / contact@athenaenergycorp.com