Great Lakes Tributary Modeling

Transcription

1 Tiffin Watershed Modeling Amanda Flynn, Laura Weintraub, Joe DePinto Great Lakes Tributary Modeling Program 516(e) Meeting May 18, 2011

2 Tiffin Watershed Modeling: Project Overview Tiffin Watershed Headwater a e watershed, ed, north side of Maumee River sediment and nutrient problems Leverage knowledge and data from other model applications (Upper Auglaize, Blanchard, Upper Tiffin) Objectives Quantify sediment and nutrient loading Evaluate land management alternatives to estimate potential benefit from reduced loading Funding Under 516(e) Timeline: Summer 2011-Summer 2013 Maumee River Basin (6,300 mi 2 ) 2

3 Project Team USACE- Buffalo District Bryan Hinterberger Funding, Technical Review, Project Oversight Ecology and Environment (E&E) Mike Morgante, Tom Heins Quality Control Plan, Independent Technical Review LimnoTech Joe DePinto, Greg Peterson Laura Weintraub Amanda Flynn, Pranesh Selvendiran Technical Lead, Project Management, Reporting Michigan Tech Research Institute (MTRI) Colin Brooks, Richard Powell GIS Data (Land Use, Crop and Tillage Data) Additional Technical Support Flow & Water Quality Data (HU Pete Richards) Nutrients (OSU Libby Dayton, UA Andrew Sharpley) Ephemeral Gully Erosion (USDA Ron Binger, Fred Theurer) 3

4 Tiffin River Watershed Background 778 Square miles 44% in MI, 56% in Ohio Agriculturally dominated watershed 66.5% cropland, 20% pasture Major crops include beans, corn, wheat Livestock production Tiffin River is ~110 miles long Major tributaries - Lick Creek, Brush Creek, Beaver Creek, Mill Creek, and Bean Creek. Primary sources of impairment include siltation, habitat alteration, and organic enrichment/low dissolved oxygen 4

5 Objectives of Tiffin Modeling Effort: Continue effort to apply fine-scale models to watersheds within the Maumee Basin (e.g., Upper Auglaize, Blanchard, Tiffin) Quantify sediment and nutrient loading from the Tiffin River watershed Determine spatial and temporal distribution of sediment and nutrient sources in the watershed Estimate potential benefits of improved land management Support broader sediment and nutrient modeling efforts of the lower Maumee River and Maumee Bay NRCS,

6 Project Tasks Task # Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Task 6 Task Description QCP, ITR, and USACE Safety Requirements Project Scoping Model Refinement Model Development (Optional) Model Calibration (Optional) Alternatives Modeling (Optional) Schedule (Calendar Days after Notice to Proceed) 15 (June 2011) 90 (August 2011) 180 (November 2011) 420 (July 2012) 585 (January 2013) 730 (June 2013)

7 Task 2 - Project Scoping Identify watershed stakeholders, leverage past work, and support model selection (AnnAGNPS or SWAT). Coordinate with stakeholders - organize and conduct one project kick-off meeting. Develop a project scoping report on watershed characteristics, proposed modeling, and technical transfer activities. 7

8 AnnAGNPS Background Developed by USDA-ARS Models daily flow, suspended solids, and nutrients Unique Strengths Provides spatial explicitness and source tracking of loads Simulates ephemeral gully erosion Limitationsit ti Limits on watershed size/number of cells Most suitable for long-term average values of erosion Does not explicitly compute stream baseflow Limited simulation of: stream processes point sources 8

9 SWAT Background Developed by USDA-ARS Models daily flow, suspended solids, and nutrients Unique Strengths Suitable for large and mixed land use watersheds Simulates groundwater component Better point source representation Directly simulates some land management practices (e.g., vegetative filter strips) Uses QUAL2E algorithms to simulate water quality Limitations HRUs not spatially explicit within subwatershed land management practices No simulation of ephemeral gullies No automatic tracking of sediment and nutrient load to specific sources and locations in a watershed 9

10 Task 3 Model Refinement Refine selected model to address known limitations and uncertainties Potential refinement will include either option A or B. Option A: investigate/revise AnnAGNPS nutrient algorithms Option B: add ephemeral gully erosion processes and associated sediment and nutrient transport pathways to SWAT Possible coordination with soil scientists and water quality experts Andrew Sharpley - University of Arkansas, Libby Dayton - Ohio State University, Pete Richards - Heidelberg University Produce a technical memorandum describing model refinement approach, code changes, and testing of revised model.

11 Project Completion Steps Tasks 4, 5, and 6 Proceed with model development, calibration, and alternatives modeling. Fiscal Year 2012 Runoff (cfs) 1, Blanchard River at Findlay Annual Average Runoff ( ) HYSEP PART AnnANGPS Cuba Findlay NSE R 2 NSE R 2 Time HYSEP PART HYSEP PART HYSEP PART HYSEP PART Annual Monthly Daily

12 Future Steps Long-term Objective Apply fine-scale models to all Maumee subbasins Link all subbasin models into a single Maumee watershed model to simulate load response at Waterville Link watershed model with lower Maumee River- Bay Model (LMR-MB) to connect actions in watershed with ecological endpoints (i.e., Microcystis and Lyngbya blooms, sedimentation, turbidity and taste and odor problems) 12

13 Contact information: Amanda Flynn LimnoTech 501 Avis Drive Ann Arbor, Michigan