Directorate of Energy, Mineral and Mining Resource Badan National Development Planning Agency

Transcription

1 LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system MANUAL MODEL BACKGROUND STUDY OF RPJMN Directorate of Energy, Mineral and Mining Resource Badan National Development Planning Agency

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3 PREFACE This book serves as a guide to learn how to operate LEAP (Longrange Energy Alternative Planning System) software and energy system modeling. This book is designed in a simple way and contains practical things in energy system modeling with LEAP software. This book consists of three sections, namely LEAP Introduction, Modeling with LEAP Exercise, and Unit and Unit Conversion System. Even though simple, this book is quite adequate in explaining steps of energy system modeling with LEAP. Data used as case example in this book are not the actual data, but similar with energy system cases in Indonesia. Therefore, after studying this book, readers will be able to adapt the model structure to create the actual model. We expect this book to be useful. Authors i

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface... i Table of Contents... ii SECTION I LEAP INTRODUCTION What is LEAP?... 1 Modeling with LEAP... 1 General Terminology in LEAP... 2 LEAP Menus... 4 Tutorial and Help... 6 View Bar... 6 Tree... 8 Expressions in LEAP... 9 Simulation and See Result Technology and Environment Information Clipping Model Documentation Download and LEAP Registration Supporting Hardware and Software SECTION II MODELING WITH LEAP EXERCISES Exercise 1 Model Design Stages of the Modeling Constructing Energy Demand Tree Constructing RES Preparing Data Exercise 2 Basic Parameter Setting Basic Parameter Setting Unit Setting Fuel Type ii

5 Exercise 3 Household Demand Current Account Reference Scenario See Result Evaluation Exercise 4 Commercial Demand Current Account Reference Scenario See Result Evaluation Exercise 5 Industrial Demand Current Account Reference Scenario See Result Evaluation Exercise 6 Transportation Demand Current Account Reference Scenario See Result Evaluation Exercise 7 Electricity Transformation Transmission and Distribution Power Plant Current Account Reference Scenario See Result Evaluation Exercise 8 Refinery Transformation Current Account Reference Scenario See Result Evaluation iii

6 Exercise 9 Other Energy Transformation Current Account Reference Scenario Exercise 10 Primary Energy Production Current Account Reference Scenario Exercise 11 Resources Energy Reserve and Potential Evaluation Exercise 12 Emission Exercise 13 Model Testing Exercise 14 Scenario Arrangement SECTION III UNIT SYSTEM AND UNIT CONVERSION Unit system Decimal Multiplication Unit Writing Energy Unit Conversion Energy Unit Conversion to BOE Energy Unit Conversion from BGS to SI BIBLIOGRAPHY iv

7 SECTION I LEAP INTRODUCTION WHAT IS LEAP? LEAP is an abbreviation of Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System. LEAP is a computer software used to analyze and evaluate energy planning and policy. LEAP is developed by Stockholm Environment Institute, which is centered in Boston, United States of America. The first version of LEAP was released in The latest version of LEAP is LEAP 2006, which is the development from LEAP Starting from LEAP 2000, LEAP software is already windowbased. MODELING WITH LEAP Modeling methodology in LEAP is accounting. Energy demand or energy supply in accounting method is calculated by totaling energy use and supply in each type of activity. In LEAP software, there are 4 (four) main modules and 3 (three) additional modules. The main modules are standard modules which are usually used in energy modeling, namely: Key Assumptions, Demand, Transformation, and Resources. Additional modules are the complementary for main modules if needed, i.e: Statistical Differences, Stock Changes, and Non Energy Sector Effects. Key Assumptions Module is to accommodate general parameters that can be used in Demand Module or Transformation Module. This general parameter is for example population amount, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and so on. Key Assumptions Module is complementary for other modules. In a simple module, this module can be not functioned. 1

8 Demand Module is to calculate energy demand. Division for energy user sector can fully conducted according to modeler needs. Energy demand can be defined as the multiplication between energy use activity (e.g. population amount, amount of vehicle, added value volume, etc.) and energy use intensity for particular activities. Statistical Differences Module is to write assumptions about differences between demand data and supply data due to different energy supply and demand calculation approach. Branches in Statistical Differences Module will appear by itself according to types of energy modeled in Demand Module. Usually, statistical differences in modeling are assumed to be zero. Transformation Module is to calculate energy supply. Energy supply can consist of primary energy production (natural gas, petroleum oil, coal, etc.) and secondary energy (electricity, oil fuel, LPG, coal briquette, charcoal, etc.). Branch structure in Transformation Module has a default structure, with each energy transformation activity consists of processes and output. Stock Changes Module is to write assumptions of stock changes or energy reserves at the start of a particular year with the start of the next year. Branches in Stock Changes Module will appear by themselves according to types of energy modeled in Transformation Module. Usually, stock changes in modeling are assumed to be zero. Resources Module consists of Primary and Secondary. The two branches are default. Branches in Resources Module will appear by themselves according to types of energy modeled in Transformation Module. Some parameters to be filled, such as amount of reserve (petroleum oil, natural gas, coal, etc.) and energy potential (water powered, biomass, etc.). 2

9 Non-Energy Sector Effects Module is to place energy sector negative impact variables, such as accident rate, health decline, ecosystem disruption, etc. The module arrangement is default. LEAP will simulate the model according to the arrangement, from top to bottom. LEAP simulation is straightforward, with no feedback between energy demand and supply. Energy demand is assumed to be fulfilled by energy supply from domestic energy transformation or energy import. GENERAL TERMINOLOGY IN LEAP Area: the reviewed system (example: country or region). Current Accounts: data illustrating the Base Year (starting year) from reviewed time period. Scenario: a set of assumptions related to the future condition. Tree: diagram representing model structure which is compiled as Windows Explorer display. Tree consists of several Branches. Branch: branch or part of Tree. There are four main Branch, namely Key Assumptions, Demand, Transformation and Resources. Each Main Branch can be divided again into several additional Branches (subsidiary). Expression: mathematical formula to calculate value changes of a variable. Expression will appear during a scenario formulation. Saturation: behavior of a variable which is illustrated to reach a particular saturation. Saturation percentage is 0% X 100%. The value from total percentage in a Branch with Saturation does not need to be 100% (for example: % saturation from household that uses refrigerator). 3

10 Share: behavior of a variable which is illustrated to reach 100% saturation. The value from total percentage in a Branch with Share has to be 100% LEAP MENUS LEAP 2006 is a Windows-based software. At the first time running LEAP software, you will be asked to complete the registration. If not, LEAP software can still be used, but cannot store the data (cannot be saved). How to register will be presented in other section. Next, LEAP screen will appear, as presented in Figure 1. Figure 1. LEAP Screen 4

11 LEAP screen consists of several parts, namely: - The top line shows LEAP and the opened file name - The second line is main menu: Area, View, Analysis, Edit, General, Tree, Chart, Advanced, and Help - The third line is main toolbar: New, Open, Save, , Fuels, Effects, Units, References, etc. - View bar is vertical menu at the left side, which consists of: Analysis, Result, Diagram, Energy Balance, Summaries, Overviews, Technology Database and Notes. - Colum besides the view bar is a place to write Tree diagram. At the top line of this column, there is a toolbar to create/edit Tree. - The next column consists of three parts, namely: (a) toolbar to create/edit scenario, (b) section to input data, and (c) display of data input. - The bottom line is status bar, which states: name of the opened file, the opened view, and registration status. Display in the second and third columns will change according to the selected view. For example, in Figure 1 above the Analysis view is opened. 5

12 TUTORIAL AND HELP In LEAP software, there are tutorial menu and help menu (inside the Help Menu), so that LEAP users can easily learn the LEAP software. Tutorial and help are arranged according to key words, which can be searched by writing the key words. The display for tutorial and help is presented in Figure 2. Figure 2. Tutorial and Help VIEW BAR LEAP has eight view bars, which are arranged vertically at the most left column from LEAP screen. Each view bar icon can be clicked to display a particular view. In some icon view, times are needed to executing the calculation before the view can be displayed. Figure 3 presents the view bars and the descriptions. 6

13 Analysis view: to create/edit Tree diagram, input the data, and formulating scenario Result view: to simulate the model and displaying simulation result from several scenarios. The result display is in the form of graph and table. Diagram view: to display diagram of energy supply flow set (in form of Reference Energy System). Energy Balance view: to display simulation result in form of energy balance table and graph. Summaries view: to arrange and display particular variables to be displayed in a table. Overviews view: to arrange and display particular graphs for presentation Technology and Environmental Database view: to display information about energy supply and demand, energy and environmental technology Notes view: to document model descriptions, so that model user can understand what the model creator means Figure 3. View Bar 7

14 TREE Tree is diagram representing model structure which is arranged in a Windows Explorer display. Tree consists of several Branches. There are four main Branches, namely Key Assumptions, Demand, Transformation, and Resources. Each main Branch can be divided into several additional Branches (subsidiary). is key assumptions branch, i.e. independent variables placed in Key Assumptions Branch, which is used as an input for demand module or transformation module branch category, i.e. branch for data categorization: - In demand module: energy use activity categorization - In transformation module: energy conversion activity categorization technology branch i.e. types of technology in each branch. - In demand module: energy use technology which is related to types of energy used - In transformation module: showing type of process, energy input and energy output from the process combined category branch, which has no other branch. Figure 4. Tree and Branch fuel branch, which is the energy input and output in transformation module 8

15 EXPRESSIONS IN LEAP Expression is a calculation formula to execute a projection of a particular variable. In LEAP, there are various expressions. Each variable can have different expressions. In LEAP 1995, there are only three expressions, i.e.: Growth Rate, End Year Value, and Interpolate. In LEAP 2006, in addition to three default expressions, an option to formulate own expression is provided, as in: Time Series Wizard and Expression Builder. In addition, you can also import data from an Excel spreadsheet. In the next discussion, the expressions will be further described. Figure 5 presents options for expression, this display appears when a parameter is clicked when the scenario display is opened. Figure 5. Expression Options Growth Rate expression is by giving growth figure percentage on the current account parameter. End Year Value expression is giving simulation end parameter from a particular variable, and LEAP will execute linear interpolate on the current account parameter. Interpolation expression is determining points of parameter change from a variable. 9

16 Change points consist of two or more. Between the points, LEAP will create a linear interpolation. Figure 6. Time Series Wizard Step 1 Time Series Wizard consists of six curve shapes, i.e.: interpolation, stairs graph (step function), smooth graph (smoothing from interpolation expression), linear function graph, exponential function graph, and logistic function graph (S curve). Time Series Wizard consists of three steps. The first step is choosing the graph shape, as presented in Figure 6. The second step is choosing whether to input the data or using/importing data from an Excel spreadsheet. The third step is to input the data. If using data from Excel, the imported file name and cell address must be inputted. 10

17 Figure 7. Time Series Wizard Step 2 Figure 8. Time Series Wizard Step 3 11

18 Expression Builder is used to create own expression as the model creator wishes. With Expression Builder, model creators have freedom to create their own expression, as well as creating correlation between model variables. In Expression Builder, some expressions are provided (built in function), which consists of modeling expression, mathematic expression, and logic expression. In Expression Builder display, the syntax and explanation of each built in function are included. Relationship with other variable (especially Key Assumptions), can be typed directly or via LEAP Variables button. Figure 9. Expression Builder 12

19 SIMULASI AND RESULT VIEW Model simulation is running the model, or commanding LEAP to execute calculation on model during the time period determined in the model. Model simulation is done by activating Result view. Every time the Result view is activated, LEAP will execute calculation on the model. Simulation will succeed if all the requirements are met, especially if the current account parameter and scenario (minimum one scenario) already completely inputted. Figure 10. Result view Calculation process during simulation requires several minutes. Progress of calculation process is displayed on 13

20 the monitor. If there was any mistake in model writing, calculation will stop and an error message will be shown. Model correction can be done by referring to the error message shown. After done with the calculation, a graph of calculation result will appear. There are various options of result view, as presented in Figure 10. Display options consist of: result category, fuel type, and scenario type. Result display can be in the form of graph or table. Result graph and table can be exported to Powerpoint or Excel. Calculation result can be seen by using Diagram View. Calculation result from this view is RES (reference energy system) from the model. Figure 11 presents an example of Diagram view. RES Diagram can also be exported to Powerpoint. Figure 11. Diagram view 14

21 Figure 13. Energy Balance View Other results display are Energy Balance view, Summaries view, and Overviews view. Energy Balance view is to display energy balance from the model, in form of graph or table. Energy balance view, similarly with Diagram view, is a default from LEAP (appears without any setting). This view display can be exported to Powerpoint or Excel. Energy balance view is presented in Figure 13. Summaries view and Overviews view are to display particular tables or figures from calculation result. Both views can be used to accentuate particularr calculation results, so that it would be easier to be understood by model readers. Both views can be set to display a specific result. Examples for Summaries view and Overviews view are presented in Figure 14 and

22 Figure 14. Summaries View Figure 15. Overviews View 16

23 TECHNOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION CLIPPING In LEAP, information clipping about energy technology and its environmental effect is provided. This clipping can be seen in TED (Technology and Environmental Database) view. Required information can be seen by clicking the corresponding Tree. Figure 16 presents the information for coal-fueled power plant (in the highlighted Tree Electricity Generation: Coal). TED clipping is still not fully complete. Figure 16. Technology and Environmental Database 17

24 MODEL DOCUMENTATION Model documentation is explanations on model parameters. Explanation can be in the form of calculation assumptions of a parameter, data source and so on. Model documentation will make it easy for model creators to review the model. In addition, it will make it easy for readers to understand the model. Model documentation can be written and seen in Note view, as presented in Figure 17. Figure 17. Model Documentation 18

25 LEAP DOWNLOAD AND REGISTRATION LEAP software can be obtained by downloading from the internet, namely by opening LEAP software can be downloaded free, especially for governmental institutions, educational institutions, research institutions, and other non-profit institutions in Indonesia (developing countries). In order to run the LEAP software with full access, registration is needed. LEAP registration is done by sending a request letter via to leap@tellus.org or via faximile/letter to: Stockholm Environment Institute 11 Arlington Street, Boston, MA, USA Fax (617) Username and password for LEAP registration will be sent through after a few days. Figure 18. LEAP Registration 19

26 SUPPORTING HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE In order to properly run the LEAP software, a computer with these minimum specifications is required: - Pentium 400 Mhz or equals - RAM 64 MB The required softwares are: - Window 98 or newer - Microsoft Office 2000 or newer 20

27 SECTION II MODELING WITH LEAP EXERCISES EXERCISE 1 MODEL DESIGN 1.1 Stages of the Modeling The modeling process is generally consists of five steps, namely: problem definition, system conceptualization, model representation, model evaluation, and policy analysis. Figure 1.1. presents an illustration of the modeling steps as well as the interrelations. Problem Definition System Conceptualization Model Representation Model Evaluation Policy Analysis Figure 1.1 Stages of Model Development Process 21

28 Problem Definition The first step in model construction is defining the problem, which will be a reference and direction in executing the modeling. In this step, the followings need to be recognized/determined: Reference mode, namely illustration of system behavior; Hypothesis about behavior interactions underlying the reference mode; Model boundary, namely model s boundary, assumption and scope; Time period (time horizon), namely period of review time; System Conceptualization System conceptualization is constructing a model design. In LEAP methodology, this system conceptualization is a construction of Tree diagram of energy demand and energy supply (Reference Energy System). Model Representation Model representation is the process to transform system concept that was constructed into the form of equation or computer language. Model Evaluation Model evaluation is model testing step, namely by comparing simulation result and reference mode. Model evaluation is aimed to enhance the model so that it will depict the actual condition. The process of finding the structure or parameter keeps on being executed until a representative model behavior is obtained. Policy Analysis After the model is assumed to represents the actual condition, the next step is to test several policy scenarios. After the desired result is obtained through model simulation, the result can be applied to the actual system. 22

29 1.2 Constructing Energy Demand Tree Energy demand Tree or energy demand structure in LEAP illustrates energy demand categorization and energy technology use in each category. Energy demand categorization can be done as needed. In a complete energy system modeling, energy demand is usually categorized into: household sector, commercial sector, industrial sector, and transportation sector. Exercise 1.1 Create energy demand Tree for: a. Household Sector b. Commercial Sector c. Transportation Sector d. Industrial Sector 1.3 Constructing RES RES or Reference Energy System is a scheme of energy supply flow from the form of primary energy to the form of final energy that is ready to be used by energy users. For example, kerosene RES is: petroleum oil produced in the oil mine, processed in oil refinery, into kerosene that is ready to be used by consumers. Exercise 1.2 Create RES for: a. Coal Briquette b. Electricity c. LPG 23

30 1.4 Preparing Data After constructing Tree (energy demand and supply), the next step is to prepare the data. Data preparation step is a quite hard step, considering the limited data availability. In order to make the process of data finding and documentation easier, data tables need to be created. Data table for energy demand module consists of: a. Activity data b. Intensity data c. Data source For energy supply module, commonly required data are: a. Production capacity b. Production efficiency c. Production volume d. Energy input and output Example of energy demand data format is as follow. a. Industrial Sector Activity (trillion Rp constant 2000) Industry Food Textile Timber Paper Chemical Non Metal Metal Machinery Others Total

31 b. Commercial Sector Energy Intensity (BOE/million Rp constant 2000) Type Business Of Lodgin Trading Financial Eatery Entertainme Social Fuel g Service nt Service service Electricity Natural Gas LPG Kerosene ADO IDO Timber Charcoal c. Data Source Parameter User Sector Data Source Intensity Household Susenas by BPS Transportation Industry Commercial Power Plant Construction Agriculture Mining Polri, PT. KAI, Dephub, surveys Industrial Census by BPS, SE BPS Commercial Survey by BPS, SE BPS PLN, SE BPS SE BPS, ConstructionSurvey by BPS Agriculture Statistic by BPS, Deptan Mining Survey by BPS, SE BPS Activity Household Population Census by BPS Transportation Industry Commercial Power Plant Construction Agriculture Mining Polri, PT. KAI, Dephub, surveys Sector GDRP per Province by BPS Sector GDRP per Province by BPS PLN Sector GDRP per Province by BPS Agricultural Statistic by BPS, Deptan Sector GDRP per Province by BPS 25

32 EXERCISE 2 BASIC PARAMATER As an exercise in operating LEAP software, we will model an energy system in an imaginary country named Independent Country. To create a new file, click New Area icon on the top left corner, write the file name Independent Country, choose Create Area: from default data. Figure 2.1 New Area The next step is to complete the Basic Parameter setting, i.e.: Scope, Years, and Default. a. Scope: choose Transformation & Resources and Energy Sector Environmental Loading b. Years: base year 2005, end year 2025 c. Default: energy unit barrel oil equivalent, discount rate 12, monetary unit million rupiah, monetary year 2005, distance unit kilometer 26

33 2.1 Setting Basic Parameter Basic Parameter is the model s basic specification, which in LEAP consists of 6 tables/views (Scope, Years, Default, and so on.), as presented in Figure 2.1. To show this table, click General toolbar and Basic Parameter. Figure 2.1 Setting Simulation Year Two model specification tables which have to be filled are: setting simulation year (Years table) and setting unit & basic monetary unit (Defaults table). Years setting includes: base year/start of simulation, end year of simulation, and time series that are desired to be shown. Basic unit setting includes: energy unit and length unit. Monetary unit setting includes: currency, discount rate, and constant price. Basic unit and currency can be chosen from the available list or can be newly added through Unit display. 27

34 Figure 2.2 Basic Unit and Currency Setting 2.2 Setting Unit Setting the unit is required if the desired unit is not available in the LEAP s list. Units that can be set are: currency, energy type, weight unit, volume unit, length unit, power unit, externality (environment), transportation unit, and other units. To set the unit, click General toolbar, choose Unit. Or you can also click the penknife icon. Choose a unit class that will be set. Add or erase unit from the list by clicking (+) or (-). 28

35 Figure 2.3 Setting Unit For the record, decimal sign in LEAP uses a dot sign.. To ensure that your computer is set with this decimal sign, click Control Panel, and then choose Regional and Language Options, and choose English (United States). Exercise 2.1 Add these following units: a. Million rupiah b. Vehicle operational hours 29

36 2.3 Setting Fuel Type Setting the fuel type is required if the type of fuel you desired is not available in LEAP list. To set fuel type, click General toolbar, choose Fuel. You can also click the sun icon. Exercise 2.2 Figure 2.4 Setting Fuel Type Add these following fuels: a. Diesel Oil b. Diesel Fuel 30

37 EXERCISE 3 HOUSEHOLD DEMAND 3.1 Current Account Current account is the condition of Independent Country at the base year (simulation s starting year). Model s base year is In 2005, population of Independent Country is 200 million people. Population live in rural area is 60% from total population, the rest lives in urban area. Electrification ratio in rural area is 30%, while in urban area had reached 95%. In Table 3.1., average energy intensity per capita in household sector is shown. Table 3.1 Energy Intensity in Household Sector (SBM/kapita/tahun) Fuel Type Village City Kerosene LPG City Gas Briquette Electricity Firewood Create Household Demand Tree in the Tree column. Make sure that the active display is on Analysis view. Add or erase Tree branches by using (+) or (-). Fill the data in data input column, which consists of two displays, namely: Activity Level and Final Energy Intensity. 31

38 3.2 Reference Scenario Reference scenario is the basic scenario illustrating future condition which is assumed to follow the current or past trend. Basic scenario is also called Base Scenario or Business as Usual (BAU). To create a scenario, click S manage Scenario icon. Add scenario below current account by clicking (+). Figure 3.2 Manage Scenario Population growth in Independent Country in 2005 is 1.3% per year. It is expected that population growth will decline to 1.15% in Rural-urban population composition will also changes into 70% of urban population and 30% of rural population. Create Population Growth variable in Key Assumptions, so that this variable will be easier to be changed to try various scenarios. 32

39 Electrification scenario in 2025 is expected to be 70% for rural areas, and 100% for urban areas. Average energy intensity for household sector is assumed to be constant. 3.3 See Result To see the result, click the Result view. LEAP will execute a calculation for a while. After that, LEAP will show the result, as presented in Figure 3.3. Try to change the graph into Fuels display, and then Branches. Click Table to display the result in table form. Column on the right side of graph is to control the ordinate, while column on the bottom side of graph is to control the abscissa. Figure 3.3 Result for Household Demand 33

40 3.4 Evaluation Compare the obtained result with Table 3.2. If it was different (it does not have to be exactly the same), try to recheck the constructed model. Table 3.2 Result for Household Demand Village Kerosene LPG Briquette Electricity Firewood City Kerosene LPG City Gas Briquette Electricity Total

41 EXERCISE 4 COMMERCIAL DEMAND 4.1 Current Account In 2025, added value for commercial sector in Independent Country is 90 trillion rupiah (in constant rupiah 2000). Commercial sector consists of: - Lodging, with 10% added value from total commercial - Eatery, with 20% added value, - Trading, with 55% added value, and - The rest is other commercial sector. Average energy intensity from each commercial subsector in 2005 is as presented in Table 4.1. Table 4.1 Energy Intensity of Commercial Sector (BOE/million Rp 2000/year) Lodging Eatery Trading Others Dieseil Fuel Diesel Oil Kerosene LPG Natural Gas Electricity

42 4.2 Reference Scenario GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth in Independent Country in 2005 is 5% per year. It is expected that GDP growth will increased linearly to reach 6% per year in Growth of commercial sector s added value is assumed to be the same as GDP growth. In order for the scenario creation to be easier, create GDP Growth variable in Key Assumptions. Share of added value in each commercial subsector is expected to change, so that in 2025 the share will be: - Lodging, with 12% added value from total commercial - Eatery, with 20% added value - Trading, with 50% added value, and - The rest is other commercial sector. Household sector s energy intensity in this basic scenario for the whole simulation year is assumed to be constant. 36

43 4.3 See Result After finished inputting the data, click Result view to see the result. The generated graph will be as shown in Figure 4.1. Also try to change the abscissa and ordinate to generate other graphs. Figure 4.1 Result for Commercial Sector Demand 37

44 4.4 Evaluation To check the result, compare the obtained result with the following tables. Table 4.2 Result for Commercial Sector Demand in 2005 (thousand BOE/year) Fuel Lodging Trading Eatery Others Total Kerosene , , , Diesel Fuel 2, , , Diesel Oil Electricity 2, , , , , LPG , , Natural Gas Total 5, , , , , Table 4.3 Result for Commercial Sector Demand in 2025 Fuel (thousand BOE/year) Others Total Lodging Trading Eatery Kerosene , , , Diesel Fuel 9, , , , Diesel Oil Electricity 9, , , , , LPG , , Natural Gas Total 20, , , , ,

45 EXERCISE 5 INDUSTRIAL DEMAND 5.1 Current Account In 2005, added value for industrial sector in Independent Country is 95 trillion rupiah (in constant rupiah 2000). Types of industry being developed are Food Industry, Machinery Industry, Textile Industry, and Metal Industry, as well as some other types of industry. Shares of added value on industrial sector s total added value for each type of industry are: - Food Industry, with 55% added value - Textile Industry, with 10% added value - Metal Industry, with 10% added value - Machinery Industry, with 15% added value, and - The rest is other industrial sector. Average energy intensity from each industrial subsector in 2005 is shown in Table 5.1 Table 5.1. Energy Intensity of Industrial Sector (BOE/million Rp 2000/year) Food Textile Metal Machin ery Others Kerosene Diesel Fuel Diesel Oil Fuel Oil LPG Natural Gas Coal Electricity

46 5.2 Reference Scenario Added value growth in industrial sector is assumed to be the same with GDP growth. Correlate the added value growth with GDP growth in Key Assumptions. Shares of added value of each industrial subsector are expected to change, so that In 2025 the shares will be: - Food Industry, with 40% added value - Textile Industry, with 15% added value - Metal Industry, with 10% added value - Machinery Industry, with 20% added value, and - The rest is other industrial sector. Industrial sector s energy intensity parameter in this basic scenario is assumed to be constant for

47 5.3 See Result After finished inputting the data, click Result view to see the result. The generated graph will be as shown in Figure 5.1. Also try to change the abscissa and ordinate to generate other graphs. Figure 5.1 Result for Industrial Sector Demand 41

48 5.4 Evaluation To check the result, compare the obtained result with the following tables. Table 5.2 Result for Industrial Sector Demand in 2005 Food Textile Metal (million BOE/year) Machin Others Total ery Kerosene Diese Fuel Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Electricity LPG Natural gas Coal Total Table 5.3 Result for Industrial Sector Demand in 2025 (million BOE/year) Machin Food Textile Metal ery Others Total Kerosene Diese Fuel Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Electricity LPG Natural gas Coal Total

49 EXERCISE 6 TRANSPORTATION DEMAND 6.1 Current Account Transportation sector in Independent Country includes road transport, train transport, and ferry transport (ASDP, river transport, lake, and ferry). In 2005, vehicle amount/activity indicators of transportation sector are: Amount of Passenger Car Amount of Motorcycle Amount of Goods Transport Train Mileage River, lake, and ferry Operation Hours : 3 million units : 13 million units : 1.5 million units : 70 million km : 700 thousand hours Energy intensity data for transportation sector compiled from survey is presented in Table 6.1. Table 6.1 Intensity of Transportation Sector (BOE/unit/year) Pass. Car Mtrcycle Goods tran Train ASDP (unit) (unit) (unit) (km) (oprtnl hr) Kerosene Premium Diesel Fuel LPG Gas Fuel Electricity

50 6.2 Reference Scenario In order to estimate the growth of vehicle amount or growth of activity in transportation sector, the correlation with GDP growth is made. Thus, we get the elasticity of vehicle or activity growth in transportation sector on GDP growth, i.e: Elasticity of Passenger Car : 1,5 Elasticity of Motorcycle : 1,25 Elasticity of Goods Transport : 1,25 Elasticity of Train : 1 Elasticity of River, Lake and Ferry Transport : 1 Total GDP in 2005 is 350 trillion rupiah (in constant price 2000). Energy intensity of transportation sector in the basic scenario is assumed to be constant during the simulation year. 44

51 6.3 See Result After finished inputting the data, click Result view to see the result. The generated graph will be as shown in Figure 6.1. Also try to change the abscissa and ordinate to generate other graphs. Figure 6.1 Result for Transportation Sector Demand 45

52 6.4 Evaluation To check the result, compare the obtained result with the following tables. Table 6.2 Result for Transportation Sector Demand in 2005 (Million BOE/year) Car Mtrcycle Goods tran Train ASDP (unit) (unit) (unit) (km) (oprtnl hr) Kerosene Premium Diesel Fuel LPG Gas Fuel Electricity Total Table 6.3 Result for Transportation Sector Demand in 2025 (Million BOE/year) Car Mtrcycle Goods tran Train ASDP (unit) (unit) (unit) (km) (oprtnl hr) Kerosene Premium Diesel Fuel LPG Gas Fuel Electricity ,06 - Total

53 EXERCISE 7 ELECTRICITY TRANSFORMATION Transformation module is to place the energy supply model: energy production and its distribution. Energy supply includes primary energy and secondary energy. Energy supply in this Transformation module will automatically fulfill energy demand, both energy demand from Demand module and energy export target. The arrangement of transformation module is sorted from top to bottom according to order of proximity with energy demand side. For example, electricity transmission and distribution should be placed on top of electricity generation, electricity generation should be placed on top of oil refinery (if power plant used petroleum fuel), and so on. Transformation Module consists of two branches, namely: Processes and Output Fuels. In electricity generation, Processes filled with types of power plant consist of various types of power plant, with the same Output Fuels i.e. electricity. 7.1 Transmission and Distribution Electricity transmission and distribution is energy supply chain that is closest to the demand. Create Transmission and Distribution branch under Transformation by clicking (+). Write the branch name in the provided space, choose losses, as shown in Figure 7.1. In addition, under Processes branch, add Electricity Transmission branch. Under Electricity Transmission branch, Feedstock Fuels branch will automatically appear, add/change with Electricity. Similarly with Output Fuels branch, add/change with Electricity. Transmission and Distribution Tree is shown in Figure

54 Figure 7.1 Module Properties for Transmission and Distribution Figure 7.2 Transmission and Distribution Tree 48

55 Current Account and Scenario Next, fill the current account data. Because all that is transmitted/distributed is electricity, fill 100% for Process Shares. Transmission and Distribution Losses in Independent Country in the base year is 12%, and it is expected to decline to 9% in Power Plant In order to create an power plant module, click (+) under Transformation. Next, a display in Figure 7.3 will appear. Figure 7.3 Module Properties for Power Plant 49

56 In the display, there are two options of System Load, namely: Load Curve and Load Factor. System Load illustrates the magnitude of peak load on power plant capacity. Load Curve is curve of load on time, as shown in Figure 7.4. Load Factor is average load for the whole year. LEAP provides two options which can be selected according to data availability. Figure 7.4 Load Curve 50

57 Next, in Power Plant branch there will be two branches that automatically appear, i.e. Output Fuels and Process. In Output Fuels branch, add Electricity branch. In Process branch, there will be several variable columns that have to be filled, as shown in Figure 7.5. Figure 7.5 Process Variable Dispatch Rules is to set capacity use. Namely: - By process shares: output set is determined - In proportion to available capacity: output share follows the available capacity share - Run to full capacity: output equals to maximum production capacity, without considering the amount of demand. - In ascending merit order (except in base year): output following the order of power plant (base load, intermediate load, peak load), except for the base year that follows the base year of filled output. - In ascending order of running cost: output following the cost order from the lowest 51

58 7.3 Current Account In 2005, Independent Country has five types of power plant, i.e.: PLTUB, PLTG, PLTGU, PLTD, and PLTA. PLTUB, PLTGU, and PLTA are basic load s power plant. Meanwhile, PLTG and PLTD are peak load s power plant. PLTG and PLTGU are all natural gas powered. Reserve margin from total power plant system is 35%, with the following Load Curve. Table 7.1 Load Curve Hour % peak load The following is characteristic of each power plant in the base year. Table 7.2 Power Plant s Characteristic in 2005 Power Plant Capacity Capacity Efficiency (%) (MW) Factor (%) PLTUB 8, PLTG 1, PLTGU 6, PLTD 2, PLTA 4, Input Capacity data in Exogenous Capacity, Capacity Factor data in Maximum Availability, and Efficiency data in Efficiency. 52

59 In 2005, electricity productions per power plant type are: - PLTUB : 45,000 GWh - PLTG : 1,300 GWh - PLTGU : 25,000 GWh - PLTD : 6,000 GWh - PLTA : 12,000 GWh The mentioned electricity production data is inputted in Historical Production. 7.4 Reference Scenario In the later year, power plant capacity in Independent Country will keep being enhanced. It is expected that power plant in 2005 will still able to operate in Reserve margin is expected to be constant at 35%. Similarly, efficiency is assumed to be the same as in Capacity enhancement will be determined endogenously by the model (calculated by model), with order of priority and the size of power plant unit as shown in Table 7.3. Table 7.3 Priority and Power Plant s Unit Power Plant Priority Power Plant Unit (MW) PLTUB 1. PLTUB 50 PLTGU 2. PLTGU 50 PLTA 3. PLTA 10 PLTG 4. PLTG 30 PLTD 5. PLTD 10 Capacity factor is targeted to increase until the year of 2025, with the following increases: - PLTUB, PLTD, and PLTA increased linearly with capacity factor in 2025 as much as: 85%, 50%, and 50%. - PLTG and PLTGU in 2015 into 30% and 70%, and in 2025 into 40% and 85% 53

60 7.5 See Result After finished inputting the data, click Result view to see the result. The generated graph will be as shown in Figure 7.5. Also try to change the abscissa and ordinate to generate other graphs. Figure 7.6 Power Plant Transformation Result 54

61 7.6 Evaluation To check the result, compare the obtained result with the following tables. Table 7.4 Electricity Production (Million BOE/year) Power Plant In 2005 In 2025 PLTA PLTD PLTG 0,72 - PLTGU 15,86 97,46 PLTU B ,32 Total 57, Table 7.5 Power Plant Capacity (GW) Power Plant In 2005 In 2025 PLTA PLTD PLTG PLTGU PLTU B Total Table 7.6 Power Plant Energy Input (Million BOE/year) Power Plant In 2005 In 2025 Coal Water Power Diesel Fuel Natural Gas Total

62 EXERCISE 8 REFINERY TRANSFORMATION In power plant, input energy to the power plant can consists of various types of energy, with one type of electricity as the output. Oil refinery is the opposite. In oil refinery, refinery input is only crude oil (and natural gas in smaller percentage), but the output can be in the form of various refinery products. Figure 8.1 Module Properties for Oil Refinery Create Oil Refinery under Transformation, as in Figure 8.1. Choose by process shares for Dispatch Processes, because the available information is for refinery output share. 56

63 8.1 Current Account In 2005, oil refinery in Independent Country has production capacity of 350 million barrels/year. Refinery efficiency is 95%. From 350 million barrels produced in that particular year, percentages of each refinery product are: - Diesel Fuel : 25% - Diesel Oil : 5% - Fuel Oil : 10% - Kerosene : 20% - Premium : 20% - LPG : 5% - Non Oil Fuel : 15% There is no export or import target. If there was surplus of petroleum fuel production, it would be exported. Vice versa, if there was shortage, it would be imported. 8.2 Reference Scenario In order to fulfill the increasing demand, new oil refineries are planned to be built. It is predicted that new refineries will operate in 2010 with additional capacity of 50 million barrels per year. Next, every two years there will be additional capacity of 20 million barrels/year. Shares of refinery output petroleum fuel product are assumed to be constant as in the base year. 57

64 8.3 See Result Click Result view to see the result, as shown in Figure 8.2. Also try the other graphs. Figure 8.2 Oil Refinery Transformation Result 58

65 8.4 Evaluation Compare the generated result with the following table. Table 8.1 Refinery Product Types and Volumes (million BOE/year) Produk Type Premium Diesel Fuel Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Kerosene LPG Non Oil Fuel Total

66 EXERCISE 9 OTHER ENERGY TRANSFORMATION Other energy transformation for example i.e.: production process for coal briquette, wood charcoal, biodiesel, bioethanol, etc. LEAP model for this energy transformation is relatively simple, because the input and output are only one type of energy. In this exercise, coal briquette transformation will be modeled as an example. 9.1 Current Account Coal briquette factories in Independent Country in 2005 have 150 million BOE/year production capacity. Factory efficiency is 90%. There is no export or import target, and production surplus will be exported. 9.2 Reference Scenario The existing coal briquette factories can still operate until the end of simulation year. To anticipate additional briquette demand, investment fund is prepared to build new factories with 50 thousands BOE/year capacity per unit. 9.3 Evaluation Compare the generated result with the following table. Table 9.1 Briquette Factory Production Volume (thousands BOE/year) Product Type Coal Briquette

67 EXERCISE 10 PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION Primary energy production Tree model is relatively simple. Namely by incorporating input and output of a primary energy type. For example, the energy input is petroleum oil and the output is also petroleum oil. The required data are: production capacity, production in the base year, and efficiency Current Account In Independent Country, there are petroleum oil mine, natural gas mine, and coal mine. In 2005, production capacity for petroleum oil mine is 450 million BOE per year, capacity for natural gas mine is 500 million BOE and coal mine has 550 million BOE production capacity per year. The three operate on full capacity and 98% efficiency Natural gas export in 2005 is 50% from production. Meanwhile, natural gas and coal export is production subtracted by domestic use Reference Scenario Petroleum oil production is targeted to be maintained at the current production level. Natural gas production is targeted to be increased up to 650 million BOE in 2015, and after that is constant. Coal production is predicted to still be able to be increased with production growth of 2.5% per year. 61

68 EXERCISE 11 RESOURCES Resources is the last Tree in LEAP. Branches in this Resources Tree appear automatically if a type of energy is mentioned in Demand Tree or Transformation Tree. Resources Tree consists of two branches, namely Primary and Secondary. Primary branch contains a list of primary energy, which is distinguished into not renewable energy and renewable energy. In this Primary branch, data on primary energy reserve and potential have to be inputted. In Secondary branch, there is no required data Energy Reserve and Potential The followings are data on energy reserve and potential in Independent Country. - Petroleum Oil : 9 billion barrels - Natural Gas : 180 TSCF - Coal : 19 billion tons - Water Power : 75 GW - Timber : 15 trillion tons New reserve discovery is assumed to be as follow: - Petroleum Oil : 400 million barrels/year - Natural Gas : 4 TSCF/year - Coal : 500 million tons/year Water power and timber potential are assumed to be constant. 62

69 11.2 Evaluation Up to here, energy system model of Independent Country is finished. On the next exercise, we will discuss emission from energy system and scenario formulations. To see the model calculation result, click Result view and try various graph forms. Other results can also be seen in Diagram view and Energy Balance view. To check the constructed model, the following figure and table present model calculation results. 63

70 Transmission Distribution Power Plant Coal Briquette Factory Oil Refinery Petroleum Oil Mine Coal Mine Coal Natural Gas Firewood Figure 11.1 RES Diagram 64

71 Table 11.1 Energy Balance in 2005 (Million BOE/year) Coal Nat. Gas Petroleu Refinery Water Biomass Electricity Total m Oil product Power Production , Import Export (461.27) (417.34) (250.00) (126.35) (1,254.96) Total Primary Supply (118.63) Coal Mine (11.22) (11.22) Petroleum Oil Mine - - (9.18) (9.18) Natural Gas Mine - (10.20) (10.20) Coal Briquette Factory (0.01) (0.01) Oil Refinery - - (368.42) (18.42) Power Plant (86.78) (42.52) - (11.47) (9.49) (92.27) Transmission Distribution (8.94) (8.94) Total Transformation (98.01) (52.73) (377.60) (9.49) (150.25) Household Commercial Industry Transportation Total Demand

72 Table 11.2 Energy Balance in 2025 (Million BOE/year) Coal Nat. Gas Petroleu Refinery Water Biomass Electricity Total m Oil product Power Production , Import Export (602.78) (281.46) - (81.00) (965.25) Total Primary Supply , Coal Mine (18.39) (18.39) Petroleum Oil Mine - (13.27) (13.27) Natural Gas Mine - - (9.18) (9.18) Coal Briquette Factory (0.02) (0.02) Oil Refinery - - (568.42) (28.42) Power Plant (292.36) (243.65) - - (20.75) (340.37) Transmission Distribution (19.47) (19.47) Total Transformation (310.77) (256.92) (577.60) (20.75) (429.13) Household Commercial Industry Transportation Total Demand ,

73 Table 11.3 Energy Balance in (Million BOE/year) Production 1, , , , , Import Export (1,254.96) (1,077.31) (1,084.48) (1,036.60) (965.25) Total Primary Supply , , , Coal Mine (11.22) (12.7) (14.37) (16.26) (18.39) Petroleum Oil Mine (9.18) (9.18) (9.18) (9.18) (9.18) Natural Gas Mine (10.2) (11.73) (13.27) (13.27) (13.27) Coal Briquette Factory (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Oil Refinery (18.42) (21.05) (23.16) (26.32) (28.42) Power Plant (92.27) (141.01) (194.17) (259.71) (340.37) Transmission Distribution (8.94) (10.96) (13.32) (16.11) (19.47) Total Transformation (150.25) (206.65) (267.48) (340.86) (429.13) Household Commercial Industry Transportation Total Demand ,

74 EXERCISE 12 EMISSION LEAP provides a facility to calculate emission from energy system. LEAP has emission factor database from various energy types and various technology types. Model creator can use this database or fill the emission data from the modeled energy system. To edit the emission factor, click General toolbar and choose Effects, or you can click the Effects icon which is symbolized as a smoke. The way to do the editing is the same as editing Fuels or Unit. Figure 12.1 Correlating with Emission Database 68