Quantifying Environmental Sustainability What s Your Ecological Footprint?

Transcription

1 Quantifying Environmental Sustainability What s Your Ecological Footprint? Jim Bowen, Assoc. Professor Civil Engineering Department Environmental Systems Seminar November 27, 2006

2 Concern for the long-term environmental health of our planet is at all time high Climate change now Americans #1 environmental concern, MIT survey finds three-quarters of the respondents felt the government should do more to deal with global warming Mercury survey highlights contamination

3 Environmental Headlines, cont d Global Warming Has Been Intensifying Species' Extinction Global richness maps for threatened species of birds, mammals and amphibians. Colour gradients are linear with respect to species number. (Image courtesy of Imperial College London)

4 More Environmental Headlines Another giant ozone hole has opened up over the Antarctic Warming to Cause Catastrophic Rise in Sea Level?

5 Mankind has Entered a New Era Population increases and technology advances have reached a point where we now have global impacts on our environment, e.g. Acid rain Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Stratospheric ozone Wildlife Habitat Fisheries Depletion

6 Population Increases Since 0 AD

7 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels at New Highs Past Long-term trend over 400,000 years shows values < = 300 ppm

8 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels at New Highs At current trend (+20 ppm/decade), CO will approach 600 ppm by 2100

9 Concerns have prompted a new field - Sustainable Design Sustainable design seeks to maintain the systems needed for a sustainable future for humans

10 Three Elements to Sustainability S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y Environment Economy Culture

11 This talk focuses on Environmental Sustainability Definitions 1. Long-term maintenance of ecosystem components and functions for future generations 2. Sustainability requires that human activity, at a minimum, only uses nature's resources at a rate at which they can be replenished naturally

12 Long-term Maintenance of Components and Functions - Time Nutrients, Energy Biocapacity Biocapacity Population Ecosystem (e.g. wastewater treatement plant) Time Biocapacity represents the theoretical maximum resource capacity

13 Step 1 in Ecological Footprinting - Assess Biocapacity Need to estimate earth s capacity to produce the reduced carbon that will be used by humans to maintain our lifestyle Biocapacity estimate based on equivalent area having average productivity (global hectare) Want to compare biocapacity country by country

14 Biocapacity Estimate Based on Carbon Accounting Reduced Carbon is our currency CO 2 + H 2 O ---> CH 2 O + O 2 (carbon fixation) Biocapacity estimated based on Production of Reduced Carbon examples - crop, timber, livestock, fisheries, ethanol, hydropower production Each activity quantified by estimating area needed to achieve equivalent productivity

15 Land Use Types In Ecological Footprint Accounting Area Type Area (billion ha) Primary Cropland 1.5 Forest 3.8 Grazing Land 3.4 Marine 1.9 Inland Water 0.4 Built-Up Area 0.2 Total 11.2

16 Areas for Various Land Types (25% of earth surface is productive)

17 Land Areas Differ in Productivity Global areally-averaged values Area Type Product. (gha/ha) Primary Cropland 2.21 Forest 1.34 Grazing Land 0.49 Marine 0.36 Inland Water 0.36 Built-Up Area 2.21

18 Global Hectares by Land Type Total = 11.2 Billion gha

19 Country to Country Differences - Forest Yield Factors Location Forest Factor World average yield 1.0 Algeria 0.0 Guatemala 1.4 Hungary 2.9 Japan 2.6 New Zealand 2.5 Zambia 0.3

20 Country to Country Differences - Grazing Land Yield Factors Location Grazing Land Factor World average yield 1.0 Algeria 0.7 Guatemala 2.9 Hungary 2.0 Japan 2.2 New Zealand 2.5 Zambia 1.5

21 Country to Country Differences - Cropland Yield Factors Location Cropland Factor World average yield 1.0 Algeria 0.6 Guatemala 1.0 Hungary 1.1 Japan 1.5 New Zealand 2.2 Zambia 0.5

22 Step 2 in Ecological Footprinting - Estimate Human Consumption Human Consumption Categories Food Transportation Goods and Services Housing Energy Use

23 Human Activities Also Consume Fixed Carbon CH 2 O + O 2 ---> CO 2 + H 2 O (carbon respiration) examples - wood, oil, electricity, food, consumption All consumption quantified based on carbon equivalents Nuclear power currently treated in the same manner as fossil fuel based power production Carbon consumption converted to land requirements based on average productivity (amt carbon fixed/ land area)

24 Human Activities Also Occupy Land Water supply and hydropower requires reservoir area that could have been biologically productive Roads, buildings, parking lots occupy former cropland Waste disposal occupies land Raw material mining may sacrifice productive land area

25 Eco Footprint Trends - USA

26 Eco Footprint Trends - Canada

27 Eco Footprint Trends - Germany

28 Eco Footprint Trends - China

29 Ecological Footprint by Component - USA

30 Eco Footprint Trends, by Component - Canada

31 Eco Footprint Trends, by Component - Germany

32 Eco Footprint Trends, by Component - China

33 1961 Worldwide Ecological Footprint

34 2001 Worldwide Ecological Footprint

35 2005 Ecological Footprint and Population by Region

36 Ecological Footprint Trends by Component

37 Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity Trends

38 Ecological Footprint Trend in Earth Equivalents

39 Worldwide Eco Footprint in Earth Equivalents - Trends

40 Getting Personal With Eco Footprints - 2 student estimates 1. Ernie Earth Club - Vegan, bike rider, commune living, recycling, low energy consumer 2. Carl LuvMySUV - lives on Big Macs, loves horsepower, drives everywhere, consumes as much of everything as possible Ecological footprint courtesy of myfootprint.org

41 Take the

42 Eco FootPrint is 1/3 of national average Food = 20% Mobility = 4% Shelter = 44% Goods/Services = 32%

43 Take the

44 Footprint is 175% of national average Food = 16% Mobility = 22% Shelter = 17% Goods/Services = 45%

45 Take Home Messages Current state of things is not sustainable Energy use is the primary culprit Transportation and shelter efficiencies are possible in the US (work opportunities for Civil Engineers) We re rapidly depleting our earth s energy savings (fossile fuels) Personal choices do have a significant impact on an individual s ecological footprint

46 More Information Dr. Hilger s sustainability class, Spring 2007