Windfarm Value Engineering & Optimisation. Dr. Christoph Hessel

Transcription

1 Windfarm Value Engineering & Optimisation Dr. Christoph Hessel 1

2 AGENDA 1 Introduction 2 Optimising P75/P90 reducing uncertainties 3 Optimising P50 increasing yield and reducing losses 4 Optimising Weather Forecast 2

3 3

4 4 Helping the Business Case

5 Probability [-] Relevant Business Case Drivers Objective is to reduce the investment risk by: Optimising the wind farm efficiency (reduce wake and technical losses, increase P50) and reduce associated uncertainties (P75*/P90) *P75 is the annual energy production which is reached with a probability of 75% Losses P50 Total Uncertainty equals 1σ of normal distribution Uncertainty P90/P75 [GWh/Y] [GWh/Y] 5

6 AGENDA 1 Introduction 2 Optimising P75/P90 reducing uncertainties 3 Optimising P50 increasing yield and reducing losses 4 Optimising Weather Forecast 6

7 P75/P90 uncertainty measuring and modelling chain Wind measurement Main values for the BC P50/ P75/ P90 Long Term and Site Correction Wind Flow Model Wake Model Technical Losses Net P50 U N C E R T A I N T I E S 7

8 P75/P90 uncertainty Wind measurement 2.5%-10% 2.5%-10% Long Term and Site Correction Wind Flow Model Wake Model Wind Variability Net P50 U N C E R T A I N T I E S 2%-8% 2%-18% 0%-15% 0%-10% 2%-8% Uncertainty Total = Total 4%-24% U WM 2 U LTC 2 U FM 2 U WM 2.. 8

9 Improve P75/P90 reduces wind measurements uncertainty By: Offering and high quality measurement concept to our customers. Onsite measurement, high quality mast, suitable duration Benefit Wind analysis for optimal yield prognoses during WP planning Bankable data & cost effective financing Needed for risk analysis - site verification (life time) Needed for layout optimization 9

10 Improve P75/P90 reduces wind measurements uncertainty Met masts: Lattice masts (up to 200 m) & tubular masts (up to 100m) Tubular: Not appropriate for cold climates! Exact wind measurement (3D) and turbulence determination LiDAR: Highly mobile Measurement at 12 levels up to 290 meters 2D wind measurement Low precision at turbulence characterization due to volume 10

11 Improve P75/P90 reduce wind flow modelling uncertainty By Considering more physics in the wind flow modelling. Benefit Provide local wind speed, shear, inflow angle and turbulence for each turbine position in complex terrain Enables proper and optimized site verification and yield estimation 11

12 Improve P75/P90 reduce wake modelling uncertainties By: From: simplified analytical models Considering more physics in the wake modelling. e.g. NO Jensen (superposition for Benefit multiple wakes) Considering deep array wake effects, stability and turbulence influence on wake propagation stable unstable u wake = u C T 1 + kx r 0 2 To: enhanced 3D flow solver 12

13 Improve P75/P90 reduce wake modelling uncertainties E-Wind can model neutral, stable and unstable atmospheric conditions The turbine wakes are modelled as uniformly loaded actuator disks stable unstable 13

14 Improve P75/P90 reduce power curve uncertainty By: Offering site specific PC which considers shear turbulence, veer and density. Calculated with Blade Element Method From: Generic power curve with simplified density correction according to IEC To: Site specific power curve calculated with Blade Element Momentum Method Benefit Adjusted power curve that fits to the atmospheric conditions of the site. dt(r) = da cos φ + dw sin φ T = z dt(r) r 14

15 AGENDA 1 Introduction 2 Optimising P75/P90 reducing uncertainties 3 Optimising P50 increasing yield and reducing losses 4 Optimising Weather Forecast 15

16 P50 modelling chain Wake Effect 0% to -20% Storm Control Sector Management Power Curve Suboptimal Perf. Blade Degradation Availability Electrical loss Bat/Shadow/Temp Sound curtailment Icing 0% to+3% 0% to -8% 0% to -4% 0.5% to -3% 0 to-2% - 1% to -3% -1% to -4% 0% to -4% 0% to -3% 0% to -5% TechLoss Total = 100% (E WE E SC E SM E Elec E PC.) E(Efficiency)=100%-Technical Loss Total Total [-3% to-45%] Average -8% to -20% 16

17 Increase wind farm efficiency by advanced technology Wake Effect Storm Control Sector Mangement Power Curve Suboptimal Perf. Blade Degradation Availability Electrical loss Bat/Shadow/Temp Sound curtailment Icing Reduced by erosion protection sealing at the leading edge Enercon guarantees availability Service Software for optimised power set point in development reduces electrical losses Geographical and atmospherically specific Refer to Andree Altmiskus presentation. Optimised operation modes Refer to Katharina Roloffs presentation. Improved blade heating and ice detection Total 17

18 Increase wind farm efficiency with layout optimisation By: Multi-objective wind farm optimisation Maximum energy production Maximum possible capacity Distances between turbines Steepness Wind class (Max. wind speed) Noise Benefit: Integrated wind farm development Investigated jointly with Site Verification to ensure turbine s site suitability. Production costs COE 1 energy produced 18

19 Increase wind farm efficiency with storm control By: Offering a storm control software update Instead of generating high wind speed hysteresis losses. For sites exceeding 25 m/s of several hours per year. Benefit: Gain in energy yield: Wind speed@hh Possible Yield Gain 8 m/s 1% 9 m/s 1.5% 10 m/s 2% 11 m/s 2.5% 19

20 Increase wind farm efficiency by smart controls By: Offering a Maximum Power Point Tracker (MPPT) software. The learning algorithm finds the optimised locational specific wind direction adjustment to maximise the power output for various wind speeds. The adjustments are higher in the beginning of the learning phase and getting smaller over the time. Convergence towards the optimal directional alignment within a few weeks. From: WEC controller settings derived from prototype measurements. To: Automated site and turbine specific control optimisation Benefit: Avoid suboptimal performance due to misaligned anemometer Power optimised yaw alignment algorithm 20

21 Increase wind farm efficiency by optimising WECs in operations By: Offering an onsite WEC optimisation. Site specific WEC adjustments with regards to pitch settings, wind direction, wind vane, inclination angle. Benefit: Gain more yield by adjust turbine setting to site specific conditions. Reduce loads due to an optimised site and local WEC inflow. Power Performance tests performed in a variety of site conditions and countries: Europe (Germany, Portugal, Scotland ) North America (Canada) Latin America (Brazil, Bolivia, Costa Rica) Most of them are complex sites Non-IEC Performance Assessment (Indicative power curve only) Side-by-side comparison LIDAR or met masts power curves SCADA power curves Combination of all methods 21

22 AGENDA 1 Introduction 2 Optimising P75/P90 reducing uncertainties 3 Optimising P50 increasing yield and reducing losses 4 Optimising Weather Forecast 22

23 Optimise logistics and service at contruction sites By: 5-day weather forecast for construction site for optimising manpower and logistic planning (cost saving potential) Benefit: Site specific forecasts instead of default neighbouring spots higher time, spatial resolution Site specific heights instead of 10 m MSL, considering stability relevant for rotor star installation Considering various weather models reduces forecasting uncertainty 23

24 Optimise direct marketing By: offering a customer portfolio optimised power forecasts Benefit: Precise power forecasts enable optimised portfolio power management Maximise management and market bonus increase revenues Enable forecast opposing the main stream decrease imbalance costs 24

25 Summary Optimising Customer Value by increasing yield and reducing losses Optimising Customer Value by reducing uncertainty Optimising Installation and Operation by advancing Weather Forecast 25

26 Thank You for Your Attention! Dr. Christoph Hessel 26