Australian Nuclear Association ANA 2013 THE TENTH CONFERENCE ON NUCLEAR SCIENCE & ENGINEERING IN AUSTRALIA

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1 Australian Nuclear Association ANA 2013 THE TENTH CONFERENCE ON NUCLEAR SCIENCE & ENGINEERING IN AUSTRALIA Sydney Mechanics School of Arts, 280 Pitt Street, Sydney, NSW 11 October 2013 PAPER 9 World Nuclear Energy Developments Ian Hore-Lacy Senior Research Analyst, World Nuclear Association BIOGRAPHY Ian Hore-Lacy is Senior Research Analyst with the World Nuclear Association, an international trade association based in London. He has also consulted to the Australian Uranium Association, the predecessor of which he headed from His function is primarily focused on public information on nuclear power via the Web: > Information Library, where some 200 papers on all aspects of nuclear energy, including country profiles, are kept up to date. He is a former biology teacher who joined the mining industry as environmental scientist in 1974, with CRA (now Rio Tinto). He is author of Nuclear Electricity, the tenth edition of which was published in 2012 by the World Nuclear University as Nuclear Energy in the 21 st Century. A Chinese edition has been published. His particular interests range from the technical to the ethical and theological aspects of mineral resources and their use, especially nuclear power. He has written several books on mining, environmental, economic and related issues, the latest being Responsible Dominion - a Christian approach to Sustainable Development, published in 2006 by Regent College Press.

2 The World Nuclear Energy Developments Ian Hore-Lacy Senior Research Analyst, World Nuclear Association October

3 Total 432 operable nuclear power reactors, 70 under construction, 170+ firmly planned. 11% of world electricity, total 372 GWe. Locations approximate

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6 Main Drivers for nuclear expansion: Basic economics, including increased fossil fuel prices Energy security - geopolitical Prospect of carbon emission costs on alternatives Insurance against future fuel price increases

7 Fukushima effects 19,000 deaths from tsunami (none from nuclear accident) Immense destruction Nuclear accident due to low site $120 billion in additional fossil fuel imports so far Evacuation prolonged unduly

8 Fukushima wider effects: Removed 14% of world capacity for unknown period Threaten another 5% long-term, eg Germany, Belgium, Switz Uranium prices remain low Enrichment demand depressed Retrofit costs to counter extreme scenarios Pause in approvals to include design changes

9 World uranium requirements (tonnes U) 8 WNA Market Report 2013, Fig 5.3

10 9 The Ux Consulting Company, LLC

11 Outcome of all these: A setback in nuclear renaissance, but not a fatal blow Greater focus on passive cooling and period of grace before human intervention is needed

12 Electricity market effects Dysfunctional electricity markets are coupled with political imperative to preferentially utilise and subsidise renewables Base-load plants cut back, less economic The institutional form of the power market is critical for nuclear in a way that it is not for other technologies Whereas nuclear costs are broadly competitive with gas and coal for a publicly-owned utility, with preferential renewables nuclear is uncompetitive in a merchant power market

13 12 Most demand is for continuous, reliable supply

14 All SE Australian wind farms week in May MWe total Across 1000 km E-W

15 demand Wind % capacity AEMO, SE Australia one month

16 In any system: Increase in renewable capacity, with requirement for TSO to take their output preferentially Means reduced output from unsubsidised conventional sources including base-load nuclear Wholesale electricity market affected, conventional sources become uneconomic and retail prices rise strongly Full system cost needs to be recognised & taken into account -this is not normally done with renewables, giving false comparison

17 Examples: Germany One quarter of electricity from nuclear to 2011, now 18% and about to fall further due to Energiewende Now over 12% of solar and wind input, with capacity factors 11% and 17% respectively In 2012 it cost EUR 20 billion for renewables power with wholesale value of EUR 3 billion. Over 10 GWe mostly gas capacity shut down by 3 utilities. BNetzA predicts 5.6 GWe power deficit in south by 2018

18 4 TSOs Bundesnetzagentur EUR billion upgrade But: NIMBY

19 In August 2013 the four TSOs sold 5.9 TWh (including 3785 GWh solar, 1532 biomass, 323 onshore wind) to distribution companies for EUR 223 million, ie less than EUR 38 per MWh. This cost them at least four times that (EUR 118 for solar, 88 for wind, up to 140 for biomass) So deficit of EUR 540 million for August. - German Energy blog

20 Germany has some of the lowest wholesale electricity prices in Europe and the highest retail prices. Now EUR 30 c/kwh retail, looking at EUR 40 c/kwh AUD 57 cents by Over 300,000 households per year cannot pay, so cut off New government intends to revise Renewable Energy Sources (EEG) Act

21 Examples: USA One fifth of electricity from nuclear to 2012, about to fall a bit due to low gas prices shale gas. 5 of 104 reactors shut down over , two due uneconomic, despite being written down. Shale gas at very low price at present, hence low wholesale power prices in over-supplied market (low economic activity) while nuclear faces post-fukushima upgrade costs. Since 1995, 75% of all capacity built in USA was gas-fired almost 350 GWe. Nuclear and coal: 6%. This continues.

22 US combination of - no growth in electricity demand, - excess generating capacity, - low natural gas prices and - low power prices challenges the economic viability of many power plants, including some nuclear power ones.

23 US markets do not value dispatchable base-load capacity nor value fuel and technology diversity, nor clean air virtues. Older, smaller plants that face major capital investment requirements are the most vulnerable. Nuclear power plants provide forward price stability, in contrast to gas, where power cost depends largely on gas price. The only nuclear new build in USA is in regulated markets.

24 Example: UK Deregulated electricity market, so disincentive to investment Electricity Market Reform bill Nov 2012 For nuclear low-carbon producers, complex long-term price formula, eg 100/MWh for wind onshore, 155 offshore, nuclear??? but likely 90+ Also capacity market envisaged for dispatchable sources, auctions from 2014 for delivery in winter of Carbon floor price 16/t CO2 from 2013 rising to 30 in 2020 Russian and Chinese interest as vendors & operators Question of preferential TSO access

25 Example: China 17 reactors operating, almost 14 GWe 29 reactors under construction, 60 planned Major commitment to importing best international technology, AP1000 Construction and supply chain largely indigenous All aspects of fuel cycle Building NPPs in Pakistan, bidding in Turkey and Africa Active R&D, pioneer of HTR

26 Example: Vietnam Electricity demand growth of 14% pa Immediate plans for 4 large power reactors from Russia and Japan, Ninh Thuan province Then six more at same two sites Then two in a central province (S.Korean?) Giving 8% nuclear by 2030, increasing then to 25% Regulatory infrastructure well-developed, drawn on IAEA

27 The basics remain the same!

28 500 TWh French electrical mix evolution Unit 58 (Civaux 2) TWh 10% % Unit 1 (Fessenheim 1) 1977 Oil crisis 1973 Fossil Nuclear 0 Hydro % J C Frappier, CEA

29 The nuclear reactor fleet in France 58 units in operation on 19 sites GRAVELINES S FLAMANVILLE PENLY CHOOZ CATTENOM PALUEL PALUEL FESSENHEIM NOGENT/SEINE ST-LAURENT CHINON DAMPIERRE CIVAUX BUGEY BELLEVILLE 900 MWe (34 Units) 1300 MWe (20 Units) 1500 MWe (4 Units) 80% of electricity from nuclear power BLAYAI S GOLFECH ST-ALBAN CRUAS TRICASTIN The cheapest KWh in Europe J C Frappier, CEA

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31 Source: The Oil Drum, 2010, g/kwh

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34 Uranium Supply & Demand Reference requirements uncertain Under development Secondary supply Existing mines tu WNA Market Report 2013, Fig 5.10

35 Uranium mine production cost curve CRU Strategies

36 Small & Medium Reactors (SMR) Increasing interest For progressively-constructed large plants For small grids For isolated sites Many innovative designs Range of sizes from 10 MWe to 300 MWe (small), & to 700 MWe (medium) Diverse possible uses

37 Mainland SMRs Chashma, Pakistan, CNP-300 (x4) India, PHWR-220 (x 16) Shidaowan, China, HTR-PM, 2x105 MWe near Atucha, Argentina, CAREM, 27 MWe Kaliningrad, Russia, likely KLT-40 Savannah River, USA, sundry Dimitrovgrad, Russia, SVBR-100

38 First Russian floating nuclear power plant With 2 x 40 MWe reactors

39 IAEA 2008 Climate Change & Nuclear Power

40 Nuclear Desalination Reverse osmosis use electric pumps off-peak Distillation - scope for cogeneration

41 Transport: electromobility Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles & EVs Charge off-peak GM Volt/ Ampera Sold 20,000 in 2012 Increase proportion as base-load

42 41 With overnight charging of EVs

43 Nuclear Process Heat Synthetic crude oil from coal - A nuclear source of hydrogen + nuclear process heat double the liquid hydrocarbons and eliminate most CO2 emissions Liberate oil from tar sands

44 Hydrogen Economy Now: 50 million tonnes per year hydrogen, for oil production future: 1000 Mt/yr + for use in fuel cells Now: steam reforming of natural gas High temperature electrolysis of water Thermochemical production from water using nuclear heat - needs 950ºC

45 Operational changes Capacity factors many >90% Higher burn-up of fuel Power uprates may add 10% or more In USA: 120 uprates total 5640 MWe, 67 more in sight

46 Power Ringhals uprates - total from 2004: over 450 MWe Thermal Power Increase 113% Feed Water Flow Measurment HP Turbine Turbine Condenser Turbine Condenser Thermal Power Increase 118% SG HP Turbine LP Turbine Thermal Power Increase HP Turbine Thermal Power Increase 108% LP Turbine HP Turbine LP Turbine Thermal Power Increase HP Turbine LP Turbine Ringhals 1 Ringhals 2 Ringhals 3 Ringhals Year L. Eliasson, Vattenfall

47 Licence Renewal and Extension more than 70 US reactors (of 104) from 40 yr out to 60 years, Owners undertake major capital works at years many Russian plants from 30 out to 55 years.

48 Main new-generation nuclear reactors: Areva NP EPR MWe Westinghouse AP MWe GE Hitachi/Toshiba ABWR MWe Gidropress AES MWe Korea HNP APR MWe Mitsubishi APWR MWe GE Hitachi ESBWR MWe Candu EC6 750 MWe Chinergy HTR-PM 2x105 MWe

49 Fast neutron reactors About 300 reactor-years of experience Many are and will be operated as breeders BN-600, BN-800 in Russia, sold to China Phenix & Super Phenix in France Monju in Japan Many small reactor designs are FNR Role in burning actinides from use LWR fuel

50 Generation IV Reactors Neutron spectrum Coolant, Temp pressure Fuel Uses Gas-cooled Fast Helium 850 C Lead-cooled Fast Lead C High U-238+ Electricity & hydrogen Low U-238+ Electricity & hydrogen Molten salt Fast Fluoride, C Low Thorium, U-238+ Electricity & hydrogen Molten salt Advanced HT reactor Slow Fluoride, C Low UO2 in prism hydrogen Sodium-cooled Fast Sodium 550 C Low U-238 & MOX electricity Super-critical Fast or slow Water C Very High U-235 electricity High-temp gascooled Fast Helium C High U-235 Hydrogen & electricity

51 > Information Library