Impacts of soil moisture-climate feedbacks in the tropics in the GLACE-CMIP5 experiments
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1 Impacts of soil moisture-climate feedbacks in the tropics in the GLACE-CMIP5 experiments Wilhelm May 1,2, Arndt Meier 1 and Markku Rummukainen 1 1 Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, LU, Lund, Sweden 2 Danish Climate Centre, DMI, Copenhagen, Denmark World Weather Open Science Conference Montreal, Canada, August 20, 2014
2 Impacts of soil moisture-climate feedbacks in the tropics in the GLACE-CMIP5 experiments Strategic research area: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
3 Scientific questions What are the future climate changes in the tropical belt according to the RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth? How do the projected future changes in soilmoisture contribute to these changes in climate? Which soil moisture climate interactions (feedbacks) are important and how to they work? What are the roles of soil moisture-temperature and soil moisture-precipitation coupling?
4 Model simulations Three transient climate scenario simulations with EC-Earth for the period as part of the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment (RCP8.5 scenario) Fully variable soil moisture content (ExpR) 30-year running mean seasonal cycles of the soil moisture content from ExpR (ExpB) Mean seasonal cycle of the soil moisture content for from ExpR (ExpA) Considering the differences between and , except for the time series
5 Soil moisture content Northeast India ExpR: Fully variable ExpB: Running 30-year mean seasonal cycle ExpA: Constant 30-year mean seasonal cycle for
6 Soil moisture content JJA; ExpB DJF; ExpB ExpB: Difference between the seasonal mean values for the periods and for ExpB
7 Soil moisture-temperature coupling/feedback Red: processes leading to drying/warming Blue: potential negative feedback From: Seneviratne et al. (2010)
8 Soil moisture-temperature coupling/feedback A: less soil moisture -> less evapotranspiration B: -> stronger sensible heat flux -> higher temperatures C: -> higher vapour pressure deficit -> potentially more evapotranspiration -> less soil moisture
9 Sensible heat flux / soil moisture coupling JJA; ExpB JJA; ExpB-A ExpB-A: Difference between ExpB and ExpA of the seasonal mean differences between the periods and
10 Sensible heat flux / soil moisture coupling JJA; ExpB JJA; ExpB-A Soil moisture content JJA; ExpB
11 Sensible heat flux / soil moisture coupling DJF; ExpB DJF; ExpB-A
12 Sensible heat flux / soil moisture coupling DJF; ExpB DJF; ExpB-A DJF; ExpB
13 Near-surface temperature / soil moisture coupling JJA; ExpB JJA; ExpB-A
14 Near-surface temperature / soil moisture coupling JJA; ExpB JJA; ExpB-A JJA; ExpB
15 Near-surface temperature / soil moisture coupling DJF; ExpB DJF; ExpB-A
16 Near-surface temperature / soil moisture coupling DJF; ExpB DJF; ExpB-A DJF; ExpB
17 Soil moisture-temperature coupling Less/more soil moisture -> weaker/stronger latent heat flux -> stronger/weaker sensible heat flux -> higher/lower temperatures Changes in cloudiness also affecting sensible heat flux?
18 Soil moisture-precipitation coupling/feedback From: Seneviratne et al. (2010) Blue: processes leading to a positive feedback Red: potential negative feedback Red/blue: both negative and positive feedbacks
19 Soil moisture-precipitation coupling/feedback C: more precipitation -> more soil moisture A: -> more evapotranspiration; negative feedback, if additional precipitation not exceeds evapotranspiration B: -> more/less precipitation; uncertain as various processes are involved
20 Latent heat flux / soil moisture coupling JJA; ExpB JJA; ExpB-A
21 Latent heat flux / soil moisture coupling JJA; ExpB JJA; ExpB-A JJA; ExpB
22 Latent heat flux / soil moisture coupling DJF; ExpB DJF; ExpB-A
23 Latent heat flux / soil moisture coupling DJF; ExpB DJF; ExpB-A DJF; ExpB
24 Mean precipitation / soil moisture coupling JJA; ExpB JJA; ExpB-A
25 Mean precipitation / soil moisture coupling JJA; ExpB JJA; ExpB-A JJA; ExpB
26 Mean precipitation / soil moisture coupling JJA; ExpB JJA; ExpB-A JJA; ExpB
27 Mean precipitation / soil moisture coupling DJF; ExpB DJF; ExpB-A
28 Mean precipitation / soil moisture coupling DJF; ExpB DJF; ExpB-A DJF; ExpB
29 Mean precipitation / soil moisture coupling DJF; ExpB DJF; ExpB-A DJF; ExpB
30 Soil moisture-precipitation coupling More/less precipitation -> more/less soil moisture -> more/less evapotranspiration -> less/more precipitation locally and more/less precipitation remotely, i.e., central Africa vs. subtropical Africa Changes in the atmos. stability or atmos. moisture flux?
31 Conclusions Overall increase (decrease) of soil moisture in regions with increased (decreased) precipitation Overall negative local soil moisture-temperature coupling in the tropics Mixed negative or positive soil moistureprecipitation coupling in the tropics Negative coupling locally (central tropics) and positive coupling remotely (subtropics) Thank You for your attention!
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